2018 AL Cy Young

it looks like baseball prospectus has some useful quality of competition stats for pitchers. it's not easily linkable, but here's a summary:

Snell:

opposing AVG: .253
opposing OBP: .320
opposing SLG: .423
oppOPS: .743
oppTAv: .265
oppRPA+: 104
PPF: 100
PVORP: 38.4

Kluber:

opposing AVG: .223
opposing OBP: .257
opposing SLG: .367
oppOPS: .730
oppTAv: .262
oppRPA+: 101
PPF: 104
PVORP: 38.1

Verlander:

opposing AVG: .247
opposing OBP: .318
opposing SLG: .421
oppOPS: .739
oppTAv: .263
oppRPA+: 103
PPF: 96
PVORP: 57.8

oppTAv is opponent's True Average, a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. Adjustments are made for park and league quality, as such the league-average mark is constant at .260.
oppRPA+ is the opponent's player's runs per plate appearance, relative to the league average - 100 means average, 120 is 20% better than average, etc.
PPF is Pitching Park Factor. 100 is average, above 100 is a higher run scoring environment, below 100 is a lower run scoring environment.
PVORP is Value Over Replacement Player as a pitcher

yaaaarg, i got kluber's stats totally wrong. here's the corrected version:

opposing AVG: .250
opposing OBP: .316
opposing SLG: .413
oppOPS: .730
oppTAv: .262
oppRPA+: 101
PPF: 104
PVORP: 38.1

there. that makes a lot more sense.

PVORP OTM, IMO.

Verlander allowed fewer baserunners (8.45/9, including HBP; Snell allowed 8.82) and struck out more batters (12.2/9 vs. 11.0/9), yet Snell's ERA was 0.63 lower. Possible explanations:

Home runs: Verlander did give up more (1.2/9 vs. 0.8/9--12 more HR in ~35 innings)
How many inherited runners scored: I don't think Baseball Reference has this data...does someone keep track of it?
Sheer luck?

The quality-of-competition data looks fairly even to me: Snell (.253/.320/.423), Verlander (.247/.318/.421). Snell's opposition was a little better, but a few percentage points over a couple of hundred innings can't mean that much, can it?

One obvious explanation: many more GIDP for Snell (Snell had a 15-3 advantage in ~35 fewer innings). Sabermetrics gives credit to the defense there, right, not the pitcher?

So 1) Verlander was better at not allowing baserunners, and 2) he struck out more batters, but when people were on base, Verlander 3) gave up quite a few more home runs, and 4) Snell (or his team) started a lot more double plays. I don't know what the prevailing wisdom is, but I wouldn't be that confident in saying Snell was just a lucky bystander in all those double plays. He definitely wasn't a lucky bystander in not giving up the extra 12 home runs.

I know that's a reductive version of a whole bunch of factors, but based on that reading of why Snell was better at run prevention, I'd have to go with Snell. (At which point, you circle back to the extra 35 innings Verlander gave his team...)

"Bequeathed Runners Scored"--I'd like to see this data before I cast my vote. If that were to show that Snell clearly got a lot more help from his bullpen in cleaning up what he'd left behind, I'd consider voting for Verlander. If not, I'll go with what I wrote in the previous post and vote for Snell.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

I bequeathed my vote to Snell. Murky, but I think he was the best (with the possible exception of Sale).

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Treinen?!

Anyways - right guy won!

I almost wonder if someone hit the wrong Blake button. Not that he didn't have a great season--more or less as good as Gagne's big year--but those days are gone forever, right?

The real vote may be just as close as this one.

If you were to go by this piece (different writers, mind you), I'd look for Verlander to win today.

https://www.mlb.com/news/a-case-for-each-al-cy-young-finalist/c-300615304

wow, Blake Snell won! honestly didn't expect that. barely beat Verlander (169 to 154). Kluber in 3rd with 71.

https://i.imgur.com/nZXLDlf.png

i was expecting Verlander to win too; but am pleasantly surprised ol' Snelly Cat got the votes!

i guess he's the first cy young winner with less than 198 innings pitched, too

first in a non-strike season, at least

The actual vote is basically identical to ours proportionally.

Do the same writers vote for each league? I hope so--it will spare us whining about how Snell won because of his wins.

Congratulations, Ian Snell.

the votes rotate, and no writer votes for more than one award per year

I didn't think it was the same voters...The two Cy votes seem fairly consistent to me, although with deGrom and Scherzer, you're looking at tiny margins. Scherzer and Verlander had more innings, better WHIPs (in those two categories, Scherzer and deGrom were essentially tied), and had the flashy strikeout seasons; deGrom and Snell had big ERA advantages and pitched for lesser teams.

Chris Sale is the only pitcher ever to finish in the top 5 in AL Cy Young Award voting in 6 consecutive seasons (2013-18). The only other pitchers to do that in either league are Greg Maddux (7), Clayton Kershaw (7), and Roy Halladay (6). Sale also finished 6th in 2012.

— Red Sox Notes (@SoxNotes) November 15, 2018

You can add Scherzer to that list too; 1st/5th/5th/1st/1st/2nd.