hot stove 2018-19

I became a bit of a Padres fan after having a great first-time visit to SD, which included visiting the (somewhat) hidden tiki bar behind Petco Park. Also, Ted Leitner is a pretty entertaining radio play-by-play guy.

Chris Woodward set to be named #Rangers manager, source confirms @BNightengale report. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 3, 2018

?

banister got jobbed, but that's the way it goes

you'd think the reds might at least offer jim riggleman some sinecure but nah

they picked greg garcia up off of waivers. he's one of those anonymous guys but he's actually pretty useful utility infielder, doesn't really excel anywhere but rarely embarrasses himself, and a surprising on-base machine

Glad to hear this. Pads had Freddy Galvis on a one-year deal this past year - so he's now a free agent - and have Tatis Jr. in the system who will turn 20 in January and spent most of the past year in AA.

Tatis slash line for San Antonio in 394 PA - .286/.355/.507

Luis Urias seems like he'll get a big shot to be the starting second baseman and they've got Wil Myers at third now.

At meetings this week, @MLB GMs expected to consider eliminating trade waivers and moving to a uniform trade deadline, possibly in mid-August. Change would require union approval. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 5, 2018

#SFGiants have offered Farhan Zaidi position as president of baseball operations, source confirms. Decision is expected within 24 hours. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 6, 2018

icymi, TJ for Lance McCullers

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/lance-mccullers-will-be-missing-the-2019-season/

Scott Boras on Bryce Harper: “Certainly Harper’s bazaar has begun. It’s fashionable. It’s historical. It’s elite. Global certainly. And certainly it has inspirations that deal with great shoes and great hair.”

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 7, 2018

@Pirates
ANNOUNCED: The Pirates have signed free agent infielder Jung Ho Kang to a one-year contract for the 2019 season.

smgdh

rays-mariners trade

Rays get:

Mike Zunino
Guillermo Heredia
Michael Plassmeyer

Mariners get:

Mallex Smith
Jake Fraley

feel like the mariners are 'rebuilding' simply because dipoto is addicted to trading

Team Willing to Entertain Trade Offers for Player Season is my favorite season

As great as he is, I can definitely see where Cleveland might want to trade Kluber. Clevinger and Bauer are both 27; Carrasco's 31. Bieber's 23--he didn't pitch especially well, but his K/BB ratio suggests better things ahead. Their bullpen was mostly lousy, and they finished seven games under their Pythagorean last year. I would think a good return on Kluber, maybe some bullpen help and a starting outfieder, could put them back in 100-win range.

are there rumours about Kluber?
i don't think they need to do much in the offseason. a guy like Pollack would be a great fit in their outfield and they sign a new closer and lefty specialist and they're as good as new imho.

kluber is on an absurdly team-friendly deal, but his salary jumps from $10m to $17m next year and cleveland is a small market and larry dolan can barely scrape two dimes together etc. etc.

(xpost) There seem to be, yes.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2018/11/09/corey-kluber-paul-goldschmidt-madison-bumgarner-trade-candidates
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25224490/buster-mlb-buzz-corey-kluber-blockbuster-teams-the-mix
http://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/5-reasons-why-the-cleveland-indians-should-consider-trading-corey-kluber-this-offseason/95-612264504

tot missed Chris Woodward hiring

another srsly hot skipper imho

Woodward?!

In this next chapter- looking ahead. #OurColores pic.twitter.com/v9DIrqp94o

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) November 15, 2018

FanGraphs editor Carson Cistulli joins the Toronto FO

One veteran market reader today predicted a larger-than-usual number of non-tenders at the end of this month. With free agent volume so high, adding more players to the market could depress prices even more and drive players to accept what in the past would've been subpar deals.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 16, 2018

Free the MLBPA

let's get stoopid

If anyone had any doubt about Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton’s intentions this winter, he made it abundantly clear before leaving the Major League Baseball owners’ meetings.

“We’re going into this expecting to spend money,’’ Middleton told USA TODAY Sports. “And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.’’

Middleton laughed, then said without smiling: “We just prefer not to be completely stupid."

Gritty has infected the city

kurt suzuki to the nationals for two years

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/astros-and-jays-both-win-diaz-thornton-deal/

james paxton to yankees

#Padres have discussed a trade with #Mariners in which they would acquire SS Jean Segura and RHP Mike Leake for OF Wil Myers, sources tell The Athletic. Leake would need to waive his no-trade clause for deal to occur, and also is weighing other potential options, one source says.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 20, 2018

Mike Leake says please god yes

I somehow missed the Paxton news til now

Mets release Jenrry Mejia

CJ Cron dfa'd

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/c-j-cron-got-dickersoned/

it's funny how 2 WAR 1B/DH types are a dime a dozen but the pirates haven't had a first baseman do better than that since 1999

legendary tiger/point park university product DON KELLY is the astros' new first-base coach

Mets are shopping Thor around?! i feel like it's a bit premature to commit to a rebuild (if that's what's going on)

brian mccann back to the barves

i'd missed the Thor rumors til now, a blessing of the holiday

the aforementioned cj cron to the twins

phillies 'have discussed' paul goldschmidt with arizona as part of their plan to run out a lineup of first basemen

#Braves showing strong interest in free-agent 3B Josh Donaldson, sources tell The Athletic. Close to finalizing one-year deal, per @StevePhillipsGM.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 26, 2018

wau donaldson gets $23m for one year

Can't wait to hear how his calf responds.

brian mccann staying with the braves

Even on a one-year deal, I never thought Donaldson would get that much.

First and foremost, the Braves are getting a player with considerable offensive ability. Donaldson posted an .801 OPS last year, when shoulder and calf injuries limited him to 52 games, but there’s reason to believe he can bounce back offensively. The typically conservative Steamer projections at FanGraphs forecast a .257/.366/.485 batting line with 27 home runs and 4.6 wins above replacement for Donaldson in 2019.

That projection sounds to me like they're splitting the difference. I'd be more inclined to project either/or--if Donaldson's healthy, he's back to the 6.0-7.0 range (i.e., some decline from his peak, not much), if he's not, more of last year.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/braves-donaldson-deal-upside-another-big-win-anthopoulos/

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a one year deal over 20 million before

it is the largest-ever one-year deal for a free-agent position player, i'm told

Mets bench coach: Jim Riggleman

lonnie chisenhall to the pirates, one year/$2.75m

i don't think this guy has been mentioned here

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/seibu-lions-to-post-yusei-kikuchi-in-early-december.html

i've seen that argument before and it feels like it's based on a concept of "value" that is just the player's potential positive impact over the course of the contract. but every one of these longer-term contracts is based on a market value that balances potential long-term positive impact with potential risk. the risk is factored into the value. and even with that risk factored in, acuna (and trout, and probably other players) are still being underpaid based on that value.

xpost

Obviously some of these contracts suck but in the greater national context of pay inequity it's very hard for me to get worked up about. We're talking about a little more than 600 employees whose average salary is $3.5 million (!)

Alll this indignation would be more productively aimed at perpetrators in the real world. The average salary for CEO at an S&P 500 firm is >350x that of the average laborer.

the players have a legit union w/ real leverage that will serve them again in time, which is more than can be said for almost all the rest of us

i am capable of being indignant about more than one thing

great facebook post though

you are special, most humans have finite resources of time and energy

xp thanks!

gregory polanco did not put up 4 war and win rookie of the year as a 20yo (and even 2 war/season, as polanco did last year, is more than enough to justify his contract).

it's hard to blame acuna -- he's a 21yo kid from venezuela who is now more than set for life. but i don't think the braves are taking on much risk at all. this might be an optimistic example, but mookie got $10m in his first year of arbitration and $20m in his second; acuna has locked himself into less than that for his entire prime. maybe the free agent system is irreparably broken and we don't know what 1 war is worth in an unopen market, but if we go by $8m-$9m, all the braves are risking is that acuna won't be worth 2 war per season throughout his 20s.

anyway, acuna's rich, braves ownership gets to keep more money, so it goes

Beetlejuice:
The in-unison chorus of “Acuna getting $100M is a ripoff” is a bit troubling to me. Why do so many media Acuna should immediately adopt their opinion because they “know better.” He’s trying to do what’s best for him and his family and everyone’s risk preference is different. (Even if it’s team friendly – the current landscape of media combativeness is no bueno)

Meg Rowley:
The deal is hilariously light for talented a player. I think we can recognize why an individual wants to be set for life while still bemoaning the incentives at work that inspired him to sign such a deal.

The media’s job isn’t to be conciliatory toward teams. Our job is to properly assess and analyze baseball news.

i have a side question but has anyone done any mathy articles describing why everyone places a "dollar value" on WAR as if it's geometric and not e.g. logarithmic? like why is a 9-WAR player worth 3 times a 3-WAR player? is it because there are so many players on a team + a multi-year deal means even more players over time?

also i'm not a math boss so idk if i am using geometric and logarithmic right. i don't even know if i'm spelling the last one right. i'm a fuckin mess

linear vs log is what you're looking for.

Wins are measured integrally, so it lends itself to the linear scale.

cubs extend ... david bote? through ... 2024?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D208mp_X0AAi8g4.jpg:small