he's still pretty good, just not $35m good. especially if he's going to miss 6-10 starts each year. ehh, the dodgers can afford it
i think buehler's the ace now, tho
― mookieproof, Thursday, 1 November 2018 19:28 (one year ago) link
best decision from kershaw's perspective would seem to be extending his deal with dodgers, for sure. i'll be kind of shocked if he signs with any other team
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 1 November 2018 19:40 (one year ago) link
i'm not writing Kershaw off quite yet, he's young and a guy like Verlander had his Cy Young peak, went through worse, and bounced back to peak form.
― omar little, Thursday, 1 November 2018 21:06 (one year ago) link
he's obviously no kershaw, but i'm interested to see what happens with bumgarner too. year and a half younger, but his peripherals have declined even more. the giants have a $12m team option for 2019 at the end of an *extremely* team-friendly contract and i don't think he'll get the contract, at age 30, that he was expecting three years ago
the giants should obviously trade him but they'll probably sign sabathia, bring back marco scutaro and give the boys one more shot
― mookieproof, Thursday, 1 November 2018 21:21 (one year ago) link
i think sabathia stays w nyy on some kind of mutual wakefield-type deal
― YouTube_-_funy_cats.flv (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 2 November 2018 12:08 (one year ago) link
I'd say Kershaw's back is probably more a drag on his effectiveness than losing some speed on his fastball. He still has top level control and movement.
I kinda think CC pitches, it will be for the Yanks or I could see Cleveland maybe reaching out to maybe finish career where it started.
― earlnash, Friday, 2 November 2018 12:15 (one year ago) link
@Ken_RosenthalKershaw: “I am throwing slower. I know that. And I don’t know if that’s going to be for the rest of my career, either. I firmly believe that I can get that back and I’m going to spend a lot of time this off-season working on that.”
― mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 12:57 (one year ago) link
did anyone say how Verlander got his velocity "back"? cuz i'm not aware of that happening for anyone else.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 November 2018 15:12 (one year ago) link
this is baseball's greatest mystery for me -- i can understand how players can be faster than me, or make better contact, or hit the ball farther, etc. i don't understand how they throw so fucking hard
the astros have that reliever, josh james, who supposedly added 5+ mph to his fastball after getting his sleep apnea treated. i don't understand that either
― mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 15:53 (one year ago) link
Verlander's case was a weird one, maybe it was because the injuries he suffered during that time were more easily manageable? The core muscle surgery, the triceps strain...I'm no doctor, but maybe those are not so much the types of issues that'll have long-term effects.
― omar little, Friday, 2 November 2018 15:53 (one year ago) link
knowing nothing at all, i'll just bullshit and say "it's all in the wrist"
― Karl Malone, Friday, 2 November 2018 15:54 (one year ago) link
Health and mechanical tweaks.
― Andy K, Friday, 2 November 2018 16:02 (one year ago) link
And some other stuff.
― Andy K, Friday, 2 November 2018 16:03 (one year ago) link
three years, $93m
so he gets an extra year and $28m more guaranteed, will be a free agent following his age-33 season
― mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 20:19 (one year ago) link
― mookieproof, Friday, November 2, 2018 11:53 AM (ten hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Body is less tired, muscles have more explosion, etc
Sleep apnea is shit.
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 3 November 2018 02:02 (one year ago) link
yeah i have some sleep issues too but the specific correlation to a significant bump in fastball speed is astonishing
― mookieproof, Saturday, 3 November 2018 02:29 (one year ago) link
I have always wanted to be in a batter's box i just see how it feels like having a 100 mph ball coming towards you.
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 3 November 2018 03:34 (one year ago) link
No idea where you live but most cages will have a machine that hits 90 or so.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 3 November 2018 03:42 (one year ago) link
it's not really the same. the old machines with the levers are better, but the ones with the two tires give you no sense of timing
at least you know it's probably not going to hit you . . . unless you have a sadistic coach who's torqued up the two wheels. rip jack heimbuecher
― mookieproof, Saturday, 3 November 2018 03:53 (one year ago) link
I'm a bit confused by the Kershaw deal -- the one extra year doesn't give him much security. Wouldn't he want to hit free agency a year earlier and stand a better chance at getting a good 3-4 year deal when he's 32, rather than 33?
I guess the logic is that if he opted out now, would he get 3-4 years for 100 million total (=what he'll get from the extension)? He must think the answer is no.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 3 November 2018 04:26 (one year ago) link
yeah i'm not sure he'd get a better deal, plus he and the dodgers love each other
― mookieproof, Saturday, 3 November 2018 04:45 (one year ago) link
― mookieproof, Friday, November 2, 2018 4:19 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
great deal for the dodgers, gives them an out to cut bait if he continues to regress. surprised kershaw took it
― k3vin k., Saturday, 3 November 2018 06:28 (one year ago) link
The shape of his career may mirror Seaver's, although the ages don't align precisely.
Seaver was dominant from '69 to '73 (age 24-28), great from '74 to '81 (29-36), and then he tacked on a few years where he was still reasonably effective relative to the league (37-41). There are some blips in there, but you can more or less identify three phases.
Kershaw's dominant phase stretches from 2011-2017 (age 23-29). Maybe last year was the beginning of his merely-great phase.
― clemenza, Saturday, 3 November 2018 14:52 (one year ago) link
Sinking feeling he's going to take the Koufax parallels too far.― clemenza, Monday, July 24, 2017 10:33 AM (one year ago)
I want to strangle the guy who named this thread.
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 February 2019 16:45 (ten months ago) link
don't feel too bad, it happens to pretty much all of them. :(
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 February 2019 16:53 (ten months ago) link
Per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, manager Dave Roberts says Kershaw has ceased throwing after feeling that something was amiss following a bullpen session. Roberts termed it an "arm kind of thing" and gave no timetable for a return to throwing. Kershaw will, however, take part in his usual non-throwing workouts.
yikes, an arm kind of thing.
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 February 2019 16:54 (ten months ago) link
in the words of Jeff Sullivan, "Pitching is bad, don't do it."
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 23 February 2019 17:00 (ten months ago) link
well, his season debut is tonight. i would love to see him be able to have a couple more solid seasons
― The immortal Hydra Viridisimma (outdoor_miner), Monday, 15 April 2019 15:39 (nine months ago) link
Yeah, I’m thinking of going.
― John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt, Monday, 15 April 2019 19:23 (nine months ago) link
There are at least two prominent historical precedents where guys recreated themselves and went from overpowering strikeout pitchers to...I don't know--location and guile: Luis Tiant and Frank Tanana. Must be others. If he can do that, maybe he can put in six or seven more productive years.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 April 2019 19:49 (nine months ago) link
cc sabathia is a good example--obviously he never returned to his late '00s, early '10s heights, but he's been effective for the past few seasons.
― to halve and half not (voodoo chili), Monday, 15 April 2019 20:08 (nine months ago) link
Was surprised to see him go 7 tonight (I assume he won't be out for the 8th), but only 84 pitches.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 16 April 2019 04:19 (nine months ago) link
Clayton Kershaw just became the most productive Dodger in history:64.8 WAR Kershaw64.4 WAR Sutton63.4 WAR Sniderhttps://t.co/thNx6cFPvl— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) August 7, 2019
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 7 August 2019 15:27 (five months ago) link
This is almost at the level of Babe Ruth hitting the home run for the hospitalized kid on the shamelessly cornball scale, but I got a kick out of it anyway.
― clemenza, Thursday, 8 August 2019 22:51 (five months ago) link
"Before long, Kershaw will have lost even more fastball velocity. Time wounds all heels, and no one can outrun it forever. For a month, however, Kershaw has turned back the clock. He’s made a simple adjustment that makes batters’ lives harder, and for now that’s enough."
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 9 August 2019 04:17 (five months ago) link
Passed Koufax in wins last night. 12 seasons each:
Kershaw - 166-71, 2.41, 159 ERA+, 4.27 K/BB, 2.70 FIP, 1.006 WHIP, 3 Cy YoungsKoufax - 165-87, 2.76, 131 ERA+, 2.93 K/BB, 2.69 FIP, 1.106 WHIP, 3 Cy Youngs
Koufax's Cy Youngs were across both leagues, but the number of extra teams that involved was only a handful.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 16:58 (four months ago) link
Also: big WAR advantage to Kershaw (65 to 53), big postseason advantage to Koufax (only a third as many innings, though).
― clemenza, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 17:01 (four months ago) link
kershaw a better hitter, but it's a pretty low bar
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 17:16 (four months ago) link
I don’t think we’ll get anywhere, but I’ll give this another go.
But it's a 'season' that has lasted 12 years (so far) and he literally is not the same kind of pitcher now as he was at the beginning. So, not a season.― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius)
Tried to get my head around this and couldn’t. We’re comparing two sets of numbers: Clayton Kershaw, regular-season pitcher, vs. Clayton Kershaw, postseason pitcher. The particulars of how and when they were compiled seem beside the point to me, because it’s the same guy and the same time-frame. Anytime you make a general statement about a guy’s career, you’re talking about that player at many different stages of that career. But you don’t start chopping up the career into smaller segments for the purpose of...I don’t know what the purpose would be. “Willie Mays was a great baseball player”--that’s a general statement that encompasses the 1951 Willie Mays, the MVP of ’54 and ’65, and the barely-hanging-on gate attraction of 1973. The statement stands, though--you don’t need to clarify it any more than that, just like I don’t see any need to start micro-analyzing the statement “Clayton Kershaw has been a mediocre postseason pitcher” (and don’t really get why you’re so invested in doing so).
As for the "pressing" theory, when he threw 8 scoreless against ATL last year in the DS last year, why didn't he press that night?
As I wrote in the same post, I don’t know what’s behind Kershaw’s postseason troubles--the pressing theory is just that, a theory that makes sense to me. It wouldn’t preclude the occasional good or even great outing, though.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 13:21 (three months ago) link
Kershaw does have some pretty amazing company on one list:
Worst ERA when facing elimination (Min. 20 IP):
Tim Wakefield - 6.75Clayton Kershaw - 5.77Roger Clemens - 5.28Pedro Martinez - 5.17
(Not sure how many innings you're talking about with Clemens and Martinez--I'm guessing Kershaw's logged a few more.)
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 13:30 (three months ago) link
“Clayton Kershaw has been a mediocre postseason pitcher”
Overall, that is a true statement, and I don't think anyone is saying otherwise.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 October 2019 16:25 (three months ago) link
and Willie Mays had his best postseason at age 40
so hang on for redemption, Clayton.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 October 2019 16:29 (three months ago) link
Conversely, I've never once used words like "choker" or "character" as an explanation for any of this--you kind of implied that that's where I was coming from last year, and it's simply not true.
I posted something similar yesterday; assuming he's around for another five or six seasons, I think Kershaw will eventually have a postseason similar to Price's last year (which I loved).
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 16:46 (three months ago) link
no clem, I'm caricaturing the sound of the mob (ie the worst online Dodgers fans). sorry if you thought otherwise.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 October 2019 16:47 (three months ago) link
Kershaw 2.0 is definitely a different player than Kershaw 1.0, his curveball is flatter and hangs a bit more in the strike zone. His new pitch (slurvy-slider) doesn't have enough zip, and his fastball is uh...
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 11 October 2019 17:43 (three months ago) link
someone somewhere was noting that his fastball and slider are now only 3mph apart -- throwing a harder fastball seems unlikely, but perhaps slowing down the slider would do enough to upset timing
― mookieproof, Friday, 11 October 2019 18:44 (three months ago) link
(xpost) Fair enough.
I read that he's held in such high esteem by his teammates, they were going above and beyond when it came to consoling him.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 October 2019 19:09 (three months ago) link
Interesting piece for a couple of days ago:
It falls about halfway on things we've been kicking around here: important metrics that are almost the same for him in the regular- and post-season (strikeout and walk rate), one that's much worse (HR).
It does give credence to the idea that it may be tied in with "the little voice in the back of your head":
That’s the math of the situation; it can’t change the feeling, though, the little voice in the back of your head that says “Hey, are you ready for this?” every time Kershaw pitches in October. And if the voice is in your head, you can be sure it’s in Kershaw’s too, every time he gives up a home run or a chain of singles. Is this all luck? Could it possibly be luck? How can it keep happening to me? Am I tipping my pitches? Pressing too hard? Not pressing hard enough?
Saying that someone might be pressing is, to me, just the flip side of saying clutch-hitting doesn't exist. (Which I agree with, although I'd allow that there are probably very isolated cases of players who do consistently perform well under pressure--an argument for somewhere else.) Sabermetrics doesn't buy clutch-hitting because a) the evidence isn't there, and b) why would it be?--you'd have to believe that athletes have some magical ability to change their abilities at key moments. But I also believe that athletes don't have magical abilities to not fall prey to something very human: that doubt creeps in when you don't succeed a few times in the same situation. It doesn't mean that you don't occasionally succeed--get a big hit, pitch a good game--just that the doubt lingers if you also keep back-stepping, and continues to linger until you definitively close that door, like Price did last year. I don't think Kershaw has done that yet. But I think he will at some point.
― clemenza, Sunday, 13 October 2019 18:15 (three months ago) link
Believing in clutchness doesn't have to be tied in to a belief that someone can do it over an extended period of time. Someone can be clutch on a given day, where they do something they might not have done on another day because they were in a different frame of mind or they told themselves definitively, "I am going to do this now and I am not going to take no for an answer." I think that kind of stuff happens all the time.
― timellison, Sunday, 13 October 2019 23:06 (three months ago) link