hot stove 2018-19

Morton will be 35 next year, this is his one chance to make money as a FA and push for a 3-4 year deal.

charlie morton has had an interesting career path -- he was below replacement-level over his first nine seasons (up to age 32). but hey, if rich hill can do it . . .

crazy that a guy with 30 WAR through age 29 seems kind of like a disappointment, but there it is

yea there are a lot of things contributing to this - he's been good, but never quite lived up to that 'greatest pitching prospect in a generation' label, nor the promise of that insane first start where he struck out 14. he was injured for a year and would later get overshadowed by Scherzer. plus, y'know, the Nats whole lack of playoff success thing. I was surprised that he had such a great year in '17.

The injuries, more than anything. They cut short that first insane era of his before we really got a chance to see what he could do. And since he came back he always seems to end up pitching through some pain, or being used carefully after an injury, ending up with 130 innings. Lots of sort of lost half seasons that were actually really good, all considering

tough to stand out when your teammate is throwing all the no-hitters and winning all the cys young

sadly I predict a similar future for Ohtani

Yeah, same. That’s what was heartbreaking about his injury. I kind of assume that at some point his arm will explode and he’ll never be the same. But god dammit, just give me one full year of peak ohtani! I don’t ask for much!

trevor rosenthal to the nationals

time for the rest of the NL East to pack it in and wait out the Rosenthal era

he might be good, still! he was killing it in 2017, before his injury

btw, the contract details for adam wainwright's re-signing have an..interesting..incentive structure. it's a $2 million guarantee for 2019, then:

For games started, he’ll earn $500K upon his fifth start, $1MM upon his tenth and 15th, $1.5MM for his twentieth, and $2MM apiece for his 25th and 30th. Maxing out this run of bonuses would add $8MM of salary.
For relief appearances, Wainwright can earn $500K apiece for every fifth appearance, beginning at #35 and ending at #60. That provides an avenue to $3MM in extra money.
For games finished, Wainwright will receive $500K for the 25th and 30th game in which he records the final out and $600K for every fifth game finished beginning at #35 and ending at #55. If Wainwright serves as the Cards’ closer and meets all of those thresholds, he’d tack on another $4MM, meaning he could in total earn up to an additional $7MM in a relief capacity.

just out of curiosity has there been any history of managers intentionally making pitching decisions to avoid the team having to pay bonuses like that?

i don't know. i'm just really glad mike matheny is not the manager

can't remember specific instances, but i'm pretty sure there have been questionable situations -- feel like it's been more often to avoid vesting options than cash bonuses tho

yankees decline gritty brett gardner's option, then sign him to a gritty new $7.5m/one-year deal

pirates decline options on jung-ho kang and josh harrison

cubs pick up jose quintana's option for 2019

Price is staying in Boston. I was partly hoping he'd tell the city to go fuck itself, but obviously he's not going to get that kind of money or that kind of team anywhere else.

He could have done what Sabathia did several years ago with the Yankees -- get them to extend his deal for a couple more years at the same AAV instead of opting out. But CC had pitched much better for the Yankees than Price has so far for the Red Sox. Plus, the Yankees seem to fall for those tricks, A-Rod pulled the same deal too after his monster 2007.

The Athletics picked up Fernando Rodney’s option

do we have any ilx padres fans? they picked greg garcia up off of waivers. he's one of those anonymous guys but he's actually pretty useful utility infielder, doesn't really excel anywhere but rarely embarrasses himself, and a surprising on-base machine

cole hamels staying with the cubs for another year

isn't polyphonic a padres fan?

Reds fan site writers seem to think getting new pitching coach Derek Johnson from the Brewers is a bit of a coup.

timellison is a Padres fan.

sounds like kershaw and the dodgers will get something done

also

Faced with market constraints, the Indians will listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter, according to sources. Kluber, Carrasco, Encarnacion, Gomes, etc. Lindor, Ramirez will definitely be held.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 2, 2018

i was kind of surprised they'd dangle Kluber, i thought the deal was very team-friendly, but i see they backloaded it and he's slated to earn 17 million next season (team options for 17.5 and 18 in 2020-21.)

greg garcia

greg ... welcome to the resistance

charlie morton was *not* qualifyingly offered

I became a bit of a Padres fan after having a great first-time visit to SD, which included visiting the (somewhat) hidden tiki bar behind Petco Park. Also, Ted Leitner is a pretty entertaining radio play-by-play guy.

Chris Woodward set to be named #Rangers manager, source confirms @BNightengale report. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 3, 2018

?

banister got jobbed, but that's the way it goes

you'd think the reds might at least offer jim riggleman some sinecure but nah

they picked greg garcia up off of waivers. he's one of those anonymous guys but he's actually pretty useful utility infielder, doesn't really excel anywhere but rarely embarrasses himself, and a surprising on-base machine

Glad to hear this. Pads had Freddy Galvis on a one-year deal this past year - so he's now a free agent - and have Tatis Jr. in the system who will turn 20 in January and spent most of the past year in AA.

Tatis slash line for San Antonio in 394 PA - .286/.355/.507

Luis Urias seems like he'll get a big shot to be the starting second baseman and they've got Wil Myers at third now.

At meetings this week, @MLB GMs expected to consider eliminating trade waivers and moving to a uniform trade deadline, possibly in mid-August. Change would require union approval. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 5, 2018

#SFGiants have offered Farhan Zaidi position as president of baseball operations, source confirms. Decision is expected within 24 hours. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 6, 2018

icymi, TJ for Lance McCullers

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/lance-mccullers-will-be-missing-the-2019-season/

Scott Boras on Bryce Harper: “Certainly Harper’s bazaar has begun. It’s fashionable. It’s historical. It’s elite. Global certainly. And certainly it has inspirations that deal with great shoes and great hair.”

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 7, 2018

@Pirates
ANNOUNCED: The Pirates have signed free agent infielder Jung Ho Kang to a one-year contract for the 2019 season.

smgdh

rays-mariners trade

Rays get:

Mike Zunino
Guillermo Heredia
Michael Plassmeyer

Mariners get:

Mallex Smith
Jake Fraley

feel like the mariners are 'rebuilding' simply because dipoto is addicted to trading

Team Willing to Entertain Trade Offers for Player Season is my favorite season

As great as he is, I can definitely see where Cleveland might want to trade Kluber. Clevinger and Bauer are both 27; Carrasco's 31. Bieber's 23--he didn't pitch especially well, but his K/BB ratio suggests better things ahead. Their bullpen was mostly lousy, and they finished seven games under their Pythagorean last year. I would think a good return on Kluber, maybe some bullpen help and a starting outfieder, could put them back in 100-win range.

are there rumours about Kluber?
i don't think they need to do much in the offseason. a guy like Pollack would be a great fit in their outfield and they sign a new closer and lefty specialist and they're as good as new imho.

kluber is on an absurdly team-friendly deal, but his salary jumps from $10m to $17m next year and cleveland is a small market and larry dolan can barely scrape two dimes together etc. etc.

(xpost) There seem to be, yes.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2018/11/09/corey-kluber-paul-goldschmidt-madison-bumgarner-trade-candidates
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25224490/buster-mlb-buzz-corey-kluber-blockbuster-teams-the-mix
http://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/5-reasons-why-the-cleveland-indians-should-consider-trading-corey-kluber-this-offseason/95-612264504

tot missed Chris Woodward hiring

another srsly hot skipper imho

Woodward?!

In this next chapter- looking ahead. #OurColores pic.twitter.com/v9DIrqp94o

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) November 15, 2018

FanGraphs editor Carson Cistulli joins the Toronto FO

Keuchel must feel so dumb for turning down that $90M/5 extension from the Astros.

I think I’d be more mad at the agent, who is supposed to know these things

that agent is scott boras

iirc his former agent was the one who declined the $90/5 and that Boras is the new agent.

adam jones 1-year, $3 million with diamondbacks

alex bregman

he Astros and All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five-year, $100 million contract extension, a source told MLB.com on Tuesday.

...His extension will cover his three arbitration years (2020-22) and his first two years of free agency (2023-24). Bregman will be entering his age-30 season when the contract expires.

Gio Gonzalez said the #Yankees deal was the only offer he got.

— Brendan Kuty (@BrendanKutyNJ) March 20, 2019

Top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez and the Chicago White Sox are finalizing a long-term deal, league sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 20, 2019

it's gonna be like 10 years $27 million

sounds like six years + two club options for around $40m?

following the trail blazed by jon singleton and scott kingery

oh wait

Eloy Jimenez’s contract with the #WhiteSox is expected to max out at 8 years and valued between $75-80 million.

— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) March 20, 2019

would this remove the benefit of service-time manipulation, because if so i'm in favor

Isn't that Alex Bregman deal an absolute steal for the Astros? He's 25, so they get his six prime years for $17-M/season. What I am I missing?...I'm surprised he signed, unless he envisions a protracted strike.

The two arbitration years they're buying out lower the average, but after that he's basically making 30 per. Not too shabby but certainly below his value.

maybe he's taking the douchebag discount

Any neo-classical economist who truly believe that a subject is always self-interested and rational should look at Bregman's contract.

or trout's

Cardinals reportedly nearing extension with goldschmidt worth $130M

extensions are the new free agency

The cardinal fans in Jupiter FL must have given him a super nice standing ovation on his first plate appearance

#bfib

Extensions have been replacing free agency for a while now. Mauer and Votto's extensions (with "small market" teams) are two good examples of contracts that were unimaginable just a few years earlier.

Bregman becomes a free agent at age 30 and in another era would be poised to get a windfall 6-7 year deal. But in this era who knows. I can't blame him for wanting to eliminate those distractions for the next five years, in any case he's set for life. This was basically Aaron Nola's reasoning too and he signed for less than half of what Bregman got.

So many extensions happening that Snell's $50M/5 got buried.

Sale $150M/5

Lol at Sale outperforming Snell x3 in the next 5 yrs

Verlander gets a $66 million extension with the Astros covering 2020-21

whoops

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ronald-acuna-jr-s-new-contract-is-staggering/

Players simply haven’t given up four free agent seasons this far from free agency, especially players of Acuña’s caliber. A guarantee for half that amount that ensured that Acuña hit free agency in his 20s likely would have been a better deal for Acuña and a positive deal for the Braves. This deal isn’t a steal because of the system that players and owners have set up. This is a deal that, even within that system, will likely prevent Acuña from ever being paid at a level anywhere near his true on-field value.

this isn't one of the ones that really gets me riled up... it's true that if acuna continues on this trajectory it will be a bargain for the braves but if he doesn't then it's a huge score for him. the exchanging of risk by both parties on this one seems pretty equal to me and at the end of the day the guy is getting $100 million (pre tax...)

obv the system that necessitates these deals in the first place needs to be overturned but there is always a rush to call these deals huge wins for the team but like... does anyone think gregory polanco is a huge steal on what is essentially the 3/24 left on the extension he signed in 2016? development timelines are wacky

i've seen that argument before and it feels like it's based on a concept of "value" that is just the player's potential positive impact over the course of the contract. but every one of these longer-term contracts is based on a market value that balances potential long-term positive impact with potential risk. the risk is factored into the value. and even with that risk factored in, acuna (and trout, and probably other players) are still being underpaid based on that value.

xpost

Obviously some of these contracts suck but in the greater national context of pay inequity it's very hard for me to get worked up about. We're talking about a little more than 600 employees whose average salary is $3.5 million (!)

Alll this indignation would be more productively aimed at perpetrators in the real world. The average salary for CEO at an S&P 500 firm is >350x that of the average laborer.

the players have a legit union w/ real leverage that will serve them again in time, which is more than can be said for almost all the rest of us

i am capable of being indignant about more than one thing

great facebook post though

you are special, most humans have finite resources of time and energy

xp thanks!

gregory polanco did not put up 4 war and win rookie of the year as a 20yo (and even 2 war/season, as polanco did last year, is more than enough to justify his contract).

it's hard to blame acuna -- he's a 21yo kid from venezuela who is now more than set for life. but i don't think the braves are taking on much risk at all. this might be an optimistic example, but mookie got $10m in his first year of arbitration and $20m in his second; acuna has locked himself into less than that for his entire prime. maybe the free agent system is irreparably broken and we don't know what 1 war is worth in an unopen market, but if we go by $8m-$9m, all the braves are risking is that acuna won't be worth 2 war per season throughout his 20s.

anyway, acuna's rich, braves ownership gets to keep more money, so it goes

Beetlejuice:
The in-unison chorus of “Acuna getting $100M is a ripoff” is a bit troubling to me. Why do so many media Acuna should immediately adopt their opinion because they “know better.” He’s trying to do what’s best for him and his family and everyone’s risk preference is different. (Even if it’s team friendly – the current landscape of media combativeness is no bueno)

Meg Rowley:
The deal is hilariously light for talented a player. I think we can recognize why an individual wants to be set for life while still bemoaning the incentives at work that inspired him to sign such a deal.

The media’s job isn’t to be conciliatory toward teams. Our job is to properly assess and analyze baseball news.

i have a side question but has anyone done any mathy articles describing why everyone places a "dollar value" on WAR as if it's geometric and not e.g. logarithmic? like why is a 9-WAR player worth 3 times a 3-WAR player? is it because there are so many players on a team + a multi-year deal means even more players over time?

also i'm not a math boss so idk if i am using geometric and logarithmic right. i don't even know if i'm spelling the last one right. i'm a fuckin mess

linear vs log is what you're looking for.

Wins are measured integrally, so it lends itself to the linear scale.

cubs extend ... david bote? through ... 2024?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D208mp_X0AAi8g4.jpg:small