Your 2020 Presidential Candidate Speculation Thread

stopped clock

> wtf is a "national security Dem"

Military and State dept vets. I've mentioned Seth Moulton upthread as the JFK-alike natural VP pick for 2020 (and he would be a contender for the top slot in 2024+ after a stint in the Senate/MA governor), but there's Gabbard etc. and a whole slate of 2018 newcomers.

As for oil prices, the secular trend is driven by the lack of major conventional reservoir discoveries over the past 50 years or megaproject investments over the last 10 (Chris Skrebowski used to be a great resource on this). US shale wells experience annual decline rates of 25-30%, so with increasing scale they've become a Red Queen's race ("running to stand still") with little opportunity for market impacts. There's a huge backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells in the main plays, but again, the scale and protracted price slump has resulted in a severe shortage of enough fracking completion crews or wastewater disposal to markedly increase production over the next couple years. As for the companies involved, shale E&Ps screwed their shareholders years ago, screwed their institutional creditors over the past couple years, and the Fed cash spigot is closing thanks to "full employment". So, its still all about the Saudis and Iranians.

Serious Chevy Chase vibes off that '82 Biden pic.

maybe all men looked like that in 1982

no. as I recall it, they did not.

Here's @KamalaHarris doing what @MichaelAvenatti got called out for. I'm a bit conflicted on this, because it's important to build small-donor capacity, but also important to be transparent in how it's done... pic.twitter.com/4Z4EHLftwh

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 8, 2018

She should fire the consultant who told her this was an acceptable ploy. The fact she agreed to it is troubling.

Yeah what the hell

Gillibrand did the same kind of split donation thing with Heidi Heitkamp: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kg4hh
and Sanders did it with Whitmer: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bernie-whitmer?refcode=tw181020-photos

It seems to be more of a common thing than I initially thought when I first saw someone point it out (wrt Sanders/Whitmer). Afaict, all of the pages are completely upfront about the way the money is split so idk what I think.

not votin' for no cop

thanks Sund4r

i thought it was incredibly lame when avenatti did it.
i think it's incredibly lame that any of them do it. maybe it's the default setting on actblue, or something.

not votin' for no cop

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, November 8, 2018 11:26 PM (twenty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think we'll all have to keep our minds open

I’m not gonna say word one against anyone who won’t vote for Harris bc she’s a cop

It seems like all these people have partnered with ActBlue for small $ fundraising now because it's easier maybe? But it does seem like the default setting, even though it gives you the option to play around with the allocation, is to go 50/50 and there's no way none of their web people have overlooked that.

a district attorney is not the same as a "cop" ffs

The attorney general of every state (or of the US as a whole) is commonly referred to as the "top cop."

That's not a common phrase in my mouth, in my house, or among any of my acquaintances.

Maybe "common" was the wrong descriptor. More like it's not unheard of for people to use that term.

otm

inslee will run btw, locally we are all planning on it (then constantine v ferguson for wa gov)

a district attorney is not the same as a "cop" ffs

oh c'mon they are prosecutors which are basically the cop's evil twin

will not vote for her in primary if possible, would vote for her in general because of course duh

Gillibrand was comedically evasive on Colbert tonight, but the implication is--thanks to Tuesday night--her 2020 campaign office now has both a location AND furniture picked out.

These people aren't going to Iowa and South Carolina for the culture. I expect at least two of the major contenders to announce before Valentine's Day 2019. Warren may do it before the end of the year, considering how eager she was to do that DNA stunt.

not that into Gillibrand either, what with the deliberately proud Blue Dog stance

does Duckworth have any negatives? I don't see any immediate red flags for me there

the deliberately proud Blue Dog stance

How recently are we talking? Because she's been no Blue Dog in quite a few years.

Maybe it's calculated and opportunistic, of course, but I also don't dismiss it out of hand. I'm a hell of a lot more progressive now than I was 10 years ago too.

She’s a combat veteran and a mother but the GOP will find ways to smear her for both of those things

xps re duckworth

I'm just glad people finally seem to have shut up about Tulsi Gabbard.

Having donated to her first Senate election, Duckworth was one of the poorer public speakers I've seen at that level of politics. Halting, strange emphases, a charisma sink (despite the artificial limbs). She's much better on Senate committees, and I hope she's become more confident since.

Like or not, if we wants a combat vet to out silverback Trump on a debate state, its Seth Moulton. I saw the 2016 debates as an affirmation that Trump was a narcissist bully that shouldn't be let anywhere near power. Too many independents saw otherwise. That rapist posture, lurking, grabbing chairs, claiming all the oxygen in the room, was something they didn't reject out of hand. Winning those voters may take going Camacho.

a district attorney is not the same as a "cop" ffs

I am reliably informed that in the criminal justice system, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups: the police who investigate crime, and the district attorneys who prosecute the offenders.

These are their stories. DUN DUN

a charisma sink (despite the artificial limbs)

Admit it, it would be pretty awesome if she had, like, cyborg flamethrower attachments

xp the DAs carry BADGES and they continue to INVESTIGATE CRIMES until TRUTH and JUSTICE have won the day

"Look at that statue. Do you see that blindfold that Lady Justice wears? She woke up in a bathtub and found that someone had harvested her eyes. And that's why I voted Blue Cop!"

everyone knows how much I love cops and prosecutors right lol

people judging candidates based on their past careers/positions is kind of stupid imo. look at where the candidates are now and how they're triangulating their positions to get elected - a good candidate is one who responds to the needs of the electorate, and if that means they advocate for different positions than they used to, that's not necessarily hypocrisy or being untrustworthy, it's being smart.

in trump's case it is 100000000% accurate tho

Let's Kill All the Lawyers

in trump's case it is 100000000% accurate tho

not sure what this is in reference to tbh

I think Hunt3r's point is Trump's professional life accurately predicted his political one.

trump represents actual valueless hypocrisy, the dark side of politicians responding to voters - here the con man as shimmering blob, morphing into whatever his marks want to hear at any given time, to be forgotten again minutes later with no consequences.

I happily voted for a woman who was a former CIA officer and had a photo of her and GW Bush in her TV commercial (as well as the same photo of her with Obama); she flipped a gerrymandered as shit district that was held by an asshole republican guy for ages and I don’t feel even slightly uneasy about this.

morphing into whatever his marks want to hear at any given time, to be forgotten again minutes later with no consequences.

This is why, barring incontrovertible evidence of massive criminality, Trump will win the Republican nomination handily. He accurately mirrors what goes on inside the heads of his supporters, no matter how ignorant, misguided, racist, or nonsensical those thoughts might be.

These people aren't going to Iowa and South Carolina for the culture.

up yrs Johnny Fever, some of the strivers actually visit to pump up interest in congressional elections

I'll admit that's the bare minimum of them, but it happens

I'll try to be more proactive in documenting the Iowa visitors who are the definite presidential strivers this cycle

It will probably pay dividends for Dem candidates to study the effects Trump's tariffs and the Chinese countertariffs are having on Iowa corn, soybean, and swine exports. It may not be high culture, but taking a clear stand in favor of free trade in agricultural exports may shift a lot of habitual Republicans there...

As for South Carolina, I'm guessing that they've been historically dependent on German capital, like the BMW plant. Numerous German multinationals are holding off on further US investment for the duration of this presidency.

Harder pulling ahead in D10 in CA

Er wrong thread

Nobody's gonna shift any Republicans, habitual or otherwise. Republicans are a death cult, and Presidential elections are understood as a strictly binary choice - My Team versus Satan's Team. (I'm excluding third party voters from this discussion because fuck those moss-brained suck-asses forever.)

...except those of us who live in irrelevant states, riiiiight?

Are you disputing the moss-brained or the suck-ass