US Politics, October 2018: next week will be even longer

it _does_ seem to be increasingly clear that _something_ is happening with whoever's setting up melania's outfits

but

what

The Melania Code: A Thriller By Dan Brown

The poll had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points. Other recent polls also showed the Missouri race as a toss-up.

is credibility interval a fancy new term for 'margin of error'

it's a different way of representing broad uncertainty involved in polling -- one or the other is used based on how much you trust your #s vs how much you trust, for ex, your poll design

caek can maybe explain this better than me

a feast of trumpisms: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/my-private-oval-office-press-conference-with-donald-trump.html

Good on Eric Holder. I wondered why he was trending on TWitter.

xpost

i learned that everything is good, everything is great, and if it doesn't go so well, it's ok - it's going to be terrific in the end. also this administration has done more in the first two years than you can believe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9U8RFjoP2A

Boldly calling out "special interests."

more evidence that McConnell & co were full of shit about Kavanaugh boosting their electoral prospects

― Οὖτις, 10. oktober 2018 22:17 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Reminds me of the reaction after the tax bill. Which everyone could see was a stunningly inept piece of legislation, so bad that there was at times moments where it seemed it wouldn't pass a GOP-controlled senate - and boy, does a tax cut have to be badly drafted for the GOP to consider voting against it. And then when it passed anyway, they claimed that it might have looked bad, but the whole thing had gone exactly according to plan and was going to help them in the midterms. McConnell is cunning in the Baldrickian sense of the word.

that Nuzzi article in NY Mag, talk about access journalism

boy, does a tax cut have to be badly drafted for the GOP to consider voting against it

The GOP congressional talent pool is unlikely to be much deeper than the Trump admin talent pool. There’s no bright young things to help them do any of the actual work.

a feast of trumpisms: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/my-private-oval-office-press-conference-with-donald-trump.html

― mookieproof, Wednesday, October 10, 2018 2:26 PM (one hour ago)

This is seriously one of the most goddamn bizarre things I've ever read.

As I turned to follow Sanders and Shine out of the room, someone said, “Hey, Olivia.” I turned toward the room again to see Kelly and Ayers entwined, their arms stretched around each other and their faces pressed close together. They smiled theatrically. “This is my friend,” Kelly said.

“Yes, and he’s mine,” Ayers said. “And I told her that. She knows that.”

we are having a normal good time, like normal

i'm not going to watch that holder video. fuck holder. i hope he doesn't run.

Is olivia nuzzi good or bad?

thinking about trump trying to ingratiate himself with a pretty young blonde is nauseating

xp not sure. the few times I've seen her interviewed on cable news she seemed ok. the piece almost seems like satire, or parody

xxp she's the next bob woodward

the piece almost seems like satire, or parody

In a better universe, surely the case, but not this one.

> this wild ride is going to crash. either that or the GOP will need to consolidate power permanently

On today's or yesterday's Ian Masters podcast, it was reported (IIRC, from Axios) that Trump was dancing in the West Wing, planning on placing another 2 justices this term, due to RBG's age and Sotomayor's diabetes.

Two more ultrapartisans like Kavanaugh, and I think I'll live to see the 2nd Civil War.

xp: Natural linen suit + Panama hat is a classic wardrobe for tropical climes, and I won't let nazi sympathizers take it from me.

probably mentioned above, but the court refusing to hear the challenge to the north dakota voter ID law is par for the bullshit course

xp

Apparently she wore a pith helmet too which is o_O

Idk, don’t put a lot of sinister importance on any of this, she’s most likely just ignorant and corny.

Pro tip for Stevolende: start all your posts with “On today’s or yesterday’s firstname lastname podcast, I heard...”

El Tomboto, Ian Masters has been the Axios of broadcast interviews for 2 decades. Super deep rolodex. The discussion of GOP plans to maintain minority rule indefinitely was his interview with Aziz Huq, U. Chicago law prof, from 9 Oct.

Olivia Nuzzi wrote the "Milo is my friend" piece, no?

I vaguely remember something weird about her. So mant media people to keep track of.

xp. yes, she also has written a number of "humanizing" pieces about alt-right figures such as cernovich

Gotta give her credit, though. All the right-wing psycho soft focus pieces finally paid off. Access, baby! You got it! Go girl pic.twitter.com/iq9Ls6w5Eu

— jf (@BronzeHammer) October 10, 2018

In polling credibility interval and confidence interval are the same thing for anyone other than the person who conducted the poll and their parents who are very proud of what they do.

in practice they’re both pretty much always about sqrt(n)/n where n is the number of participants, which is why you often see 3%, which is sqrt(1000)/1000.

But fwiw i think a credibility calculation is preferred by Bayesians and incorporates uncertainty due to survey design and weighting differently than a confidence interval like hoos said. But like I say pretty much however you do it you get 3% for 1000 participants.

Whoa wtf @ those headlines. She seems way worse than bari weiss from those.

So yeah.... bad. Makes sense Trump would try to win her over.

Who knows what truth there is in this given the sources but https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/trump-tv-ratings-fox-news-891621

Nuzzi is (or was) an Ann Coulter fangirl.

leave @AnnCoulter alone! except don't because then she won't sell books/will fade into obscurity and i will be sad because i love her

— Olivia Nuzzi (@Olivianuzzi) June 26, 2014

that's more embarrassing than offensive

jaymc!

sorry jaymc, you've maybe been posting but I haven't seen your posts in forever

nuzzi.xls

i don't understand why someone who was an ann coulter fan four short years ago is a white house correspondent for new york magazine

seems dumb and bad

but whatever

it appears that she came to prominence because anthony weiner and his campaign manager were assholes to her? that guy has a lot to answer for

haven’t thought badly of NY Mag before, but between her pieces and the recent articles of Andrew Sullivan, I don’t know…

i guess ostensibly critical, but really quite softball profiles of right wing lunatics are good for rage clicks. you need to be able to create enough plausible deniability to avoid people thinking you really sympathize with them. if she is adept at that then that's a sort of skill

andrew sullivan is a little different. he has been an influential person in american culture for a number of decades and he is a talented polemicist, which is by no means a defense of some of the positions he's taken over the years

i can't think of a defensible reason for a being a coulter fan-anything tbh including spouse boyfriend girlfriend mom dad pet or familiar spirit

He hasn't been influential in years except with the Bill Maher crowd.

but he was at one point