US Politics, October 2018: next week will be even longer

NPR News yesterday was thrilled to tell the world what an excellent politician Nikki Haley is, and how her time to resign is probably related to the upcoming election--to distance herself from GOP losses before the midterms, rather than after them. Zero mention of the very recent controversy over her accepting private air travel to South Carolina. In conclusion, fuck NPR News.

how far away are we from suspicions that Trump personally murdered Smith to keep him quiet. It's what Hillary would have done!

xp

hey waitaminute! this guy beto is rich!!!

dang it

he was in a punk band in the 90's, of course he is

haha i was gonna say

this is kinda interesting

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says that if President Donald Trump decides to fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions, his replacement won't be a Senate Republican.

Some of Trump's allies have suggested he will replace Sessions, whom he has repeatedly criticized, after the midterm elections. Sen. Lindsey Graham has been the subject of speculation about the job, but Graham said this week he has no interest.

In an interview with The Associated Press Wednesday, McConnell said any replacement to Sessions is "not going to come from our caucus, I can tell you that."

He cited the Republicans' thin, 51-49 Senate majority.

McConnell wouldn't say whether the Senate would insist that Sessions' replacement would protect special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation.

is it possible they learned their lesson after losing Sessions' vacated seat to Doug Jones?

also sad lol at it being a foregone conclusion that Sessions is gonna get canned, I mean it's just being talked about openly now

whereas before GOP Senate caucus was all "that is a red line that must not be crossed"

No member of our caucus will be standing astride the throne of Emperor Trump and feeding him the most decadent of bonbons, I can tell you that.

Dow dropped 823 today, whatev that "means"

profit-taking

Sessions has horrible ideas about law enforcement and has done much damage as Attorney General. The only reason not to rejoice at his firing is the Mueller investigation.

Dow dropped 823 today, whatev that "means"

obviously more neo-nazi symbolism

what does ILX think of this

There's a very specific dress code for Nazi allies in Egypt. pic.twitter.com/to15dKiB6N

— Nima Shirazi (@WideAsleepNima) October 6, 2018

dgaf

Democratic U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill's vote against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation appears not to have cost her greatly in conservative-leaning Missouri, where she is in a tight re-election race, a Reuters opinion poll showed.

The Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics poll released on Wednesday found that 44 percent of likely Missouri voters said they would support McCaskill in the Nov. 6 congressional elections, while 45 percent backed Republican challenger and state Attorney General Josh Hawley.

The poll had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points. Other recent polls also showed the Missouri race as a toss-up.

more evidence that McConnell & co were full of shit about Kavanaugh boosting their electoral prospects

gotta love the subtext of this new tweet

"Departing the @WhiteHouse for Erie, Pennsylvania. I cannot disappoint the thousands of people that are there - and the thousands that are going. I look forward to seeing everyone this evening."

it _does_ seem to be increasingly clear that _something_ is happening with whoever's setting up melania's outfits

but

what

The Melania Code: A Thriller By Dan Brown

The poll had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points. Other recent polls also showed the Missouri race as a toss-up.

is credibility interval a fancy new term for 'margin of error'

it's a different way of representing broad uncertainty involved in polling -- one or the other is used based on how much you trust your #s vs how much you trust, for ex, your poll design

caek can maybe explain this better than me

a feast of trumpisms: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/my-private-oval-office-press-conference-with-donald-trump.html

Good on Eric Holder. I wondered why he was trending on TWitter.

xpost

i learned that everything is good, everything is great, and if it doesn't go so well, it's ok - it's going to be terrific in the end. also this administration has done more in the first two years than you can believe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9U8RFjoP2A

Boldly calling out "special interests."

more evidence that McConnell & co were full of shit about Kavanaugh boosting their electoral prospects

― Οὖτις, 10. oktober 2018 22:17 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Reminds me of the reaction after the tax bill. Which everyone could see was a stunningly inept piece of legislation, so bad that there was at times moments where it seemed it wouldn't pass a GOP-controlled senate - and boy, does a tax cut have to be badly drafted for the GOP to consider voting against it. And then when it passed anyway, they claimed that it might have looked bad, but the whole thing had gone exactly according to plan and was going to help them in the midterms. McConnell is cunning in the Baldrickian sense of the word.

that Nuzzi article in NY Mag, talk about access journalism

boy, does a tax cut have to be badly drafted for the GOP to consider voting against it

The GOP congressional talent pool is unlikely to be much deeper than the Trump admin talent pool. There’s no bright young things to help them do any of the actual work.

a feast of trumpisms: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/my-private-oval-office-press-conference-with-donald-trump.html

― mookieproof, Wednesday, October 10, 2018 2:26 PM (one hour ago)

This is seriously one of the most goddamn bizarre things I've ever read.

As I turned to follow Sanders and Shine out of the room, someone said, “Hey, Olivia.” I turned toward the room again to see Kelly and Ayers entwined, their arms stretched around each other and their faces pressed close together. They smiled theatrically. “This is my friend,” Kelly said.

“Yes, and he’s mine,” Ayers said. “And I told her that. She knows that.”

we are having a normal good time, like normal

i'm not going to watch that holder video. fuck holder. i hope he doesn't run.

Is olivia nuzzi good or bad?

thinking about trump trying to ingratiate himself with a pretty young blonde is nauseating

xp not sure. the few times I've seen her interviewed on cable news she seemed ok. the piece almost seems like satire, or parody

xxp she's the next bob woodward

the piece almost seems like satire, or parody

In a better universe, surely the case, but not this one.

> this wild ride is going to crash. either that or the GOP will need to consolidate power permanently

On today's or yesterday's Ian Masters podcast, it was reported (IIRC, from Axios) that Trump was dancing in the West Wing, planning on placing another 2 justices this term, due to RBG's age and Sotomayor's diabetes.

Two more ultrapartisans like Kavanaugh, and I think I'll live to see the 2nd Civil War.

xp: Natural linen suit + Panama hat is a classic wardrobe for tropical climes, and I won't let nazi sympathizers take it from me.

probably mentioned above, but the court refusing to hear the challenge to the north dakota voter ID law is par for the bullshit course

xp

Apparently she wore a pith helmet too which is o_O

Idk, don’t put a lot of sinister importance on any of this, she’s most likely just ignorant and corny.

Pro tip for Stevolende: start all your posts with “On today’s or yesterday’s firstname lastname podcast, I heard...”

El Tomboto, Ian Masters has been the Axios of broadcast interviews for 2 decades. Super deep rolodex. The discussion of GOP plans to maintain minority rule indefinitely was his interview with Aziz Huq, U. Chicago law prof, from 9 Oct.

Olivia Nuzzi wrote the "Milo is my friend" piece, no?

I vaguely remember something weird about her. So mant media people to keep track of.

xp. yes, she also has written a number of "humanizing" pieces about alt-right figures such as cernovich

Gotta give her credit, though. All the right-wing psycho soft focus pieces finally paid off. Access, baby! You got it! Go girl pic.twitter.com/iq9Ls6w5Eu

— jf (@BronzeHammer) October 10, 2018

In polling credibility interval and confidence interval are the same thing for anyone other than the person who conducted the poll and their parents who are very proud of what they do.

in practice they’re both pretty much always about sqrt(n)/n where n is the number of participants, which is why you often see 3%, which is sqrt(1000)/1000.

But fwiw i think a credibility calculation is preferred by Bayesians and incorporates uncertainty due to survey design and weighting differently than a confidence interval like hoos said. But like I say pretty much however you do it you get 3% for 1000 participants.

Whoa wtf @ those headlines. She seems way worse than bari weiss from those.