US Politics, October 2018: next week will be even longer

new Politico-Morning Consult poll finds that voters say by 46 percent to 40 percent that the Senate was “wrong” to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, but also that the battle over Kavanaugh is energizing Democratic voters more than Republican ones:

Following the GOP-led effort to push through his nomination, enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged. More than 3 in 4 Democrats (77 percent) say they are “very motivated” to turn out and vote in the midterms — more than the 68 percent of Republicans who say they’re “very motivated.”

This is a spike of 10 points in Democratic enthusiasm from last month, when 67 percent of Democrats said they were very motivated. By contrast, according to the poll, last month Republican enthusiasm was roughly where it is now.

wow could it be that the media repeated McConnell's lies

its almost as if GOP politicans and pr flacks telling me this was good for the GOP were lying the whole time?

we'll know in about a month

these rallies will be helpful to the GOP because what the Trump base wants is to see more clips of Trump talking shit. that's what gets them to show up at the polls.

― crüt, Wednesday, October 10, 2018 9:19 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

sure but it's also what gets democrats and independents to show up. trump's worst runs of polling have all been when trump is in the news.

the right was worked up while Kavanaugh was in limbo. now that he's been confirmed, there's no specific "cause" to fight for. The Dems still have the cause.

I hope that's true, but still worry about what, if any, enthusiasm differential there is. 77% very motivated doesn't seem all that different from 68%, considering all of the noise

https://www.rocketcitynow.com/news/politics/the-latest-mcconnell-warns-of-backfire-if-dems-harass-trump/1512482101

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is warning Democrats to think carefully about "presidential harassment" if they win the majority of the House.

The Kentucky Republican told The Associated Press in an interview Wednesday that Democratic threats to investigate President Donald Trump's finances and businesses would "help the president get re-elected" in 2020.

dunno if running on shielding the POTUS from criminal investigation is a winning strategy

god I wish someone would drop a piano on that fucker

mitch mcconnell should be in jail for treason

McConnell says this shit just to plant FUD* among the opposition. He's blowing smoke.

*fear, uncertainty, doubt

agreed

McConnell and his allies take advantage of traditional Dem willies. Now it's clearly desperation

"You buy English muffins? It helps GOP turnout in November. You don't like beer? Excellent. The base does. They'll come out in November."

"Train compartments smell vaguely of shit. And that galvanizes our constituents."

Liberals! pic.twitter.com/qJuqT3M5rt

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) October 10, 2018

https://apnews.com/dc029aa11f1b459a96bab41508f362cc?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=APCentralRegion

hey waitaminute! this guy beto is rich!!!

dang it

Something tells me that, in the long run at least, encouraging your constituents to divorce themselves ever further from practical reality is an endeavor at odds with encouraging them of the importance of voting. Perhaps by 2020 they will have completely accepted magic as a legitimate means of reelecting Trump.

good job, internet

https://www.brettkavanaugh.com/

The WSJ has been getting some good stories on that whole Peter W. Smith guy, and now there's this:

Late GOP Activist Peter W. Smith Met With Former Trump Adviser Michael Flynn in 2015, Sources Say - WSJ https://t.co/1ZEV4Zo1Xa

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 10, 2018

NPR News yesterday was thrilled to tell the world what an excellent politician Nikki Haley is, and how her time to resign is probably related to the upcoming election--to distance herself from GOP losses before the midterms, rather than after them. Zero mention of the very recent controversy over her accepting private air travel to South Carolina. In conclusion, fuck NPR News.

how far away are we from suspicions that Trump personally murdered Smith to keep him quiet. It's what Hillary would have done!

xp

hey waitaminute! this guy beto is rich!!!

dang it

he was in a punk band in the 90's, of course he is

haha i was gonna say

this is kinda interesting

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says that if President Donald Trump decides to fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions, his replacement won't be a Senate Republican.

Some of Trump's allies have suggested he will replace Sessions, whom he has repeatedly criticized, after the midterm elections. Sen. Lindsey Graham has been the subject of speculation about the job, but Graham said this week he has no interest.

In an interview with The Associated Press Wednesday, McConnell said any replacement to Sessions is "not going to come from our caucus, I can tell you that."

He cited the Republicans' thin, 51-49 Senate majority.

McConnell wouldn't say whether the Senate would insist that Sessions' replacement would protect special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation.

is it possible they learned their lesson after losing Sessions' vacated seat to Doug Jones?

also sad lol at it being a foregone conclusion that Sessions is gonna get canned, I mean it's just being talked about openly now

whereas before GOP Senate caucus was all "that is a red line that must not be crossed"

No member of our caucus will be standing astride the throne of Emperor Trump and feeding him the most decadent of bonbons, I can tell you that.

Dow dropped 823 today, whatev that "means"

profit-taking

Sessions has horrible ideas about law enforcement and has done much damage as Attorney General. The only reason not to rejoice at his firing is the Mueller investigation.

Dow dropped 823 today, whatev that "means"

obviously more neo-nazi symbolism

what does ILX think of this

There's a very specific dress code for Nazi allies in Egypt. pic.twitter.com/to15dKiB6N

— Nima Shirazi (@WideAsleepNima) October 6, 2018

dgaf

Democratic U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill's vote against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation appears not to have cost her greatly in conservative-leaning Missouri, where she is in a tight re-election race, a Reuters opinion poll showed.

The Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics poll released on Wednesday found that 44 percent of likely Missouri voters said they would support McCaskill in the Nov. 6 congressional elections, while 45 percent backed Republican challenger and state Attorney General Josh Hawley.

The poll had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points. Other recent polls also showed the Missouri race as a toss-up.

more evidence that McConnell & co were full of shit about Kavanaugh boosting their electoral prospects

gotta love the subtext of this new tweet

"Departing the @WhiteHouse for Erie, Pennsylvania. I cannot disappoint the thousands of people that are there - and the thousands that are going. I look forward to seeing everyone this evening."

it _does_ seem to be increasingly clear that _something_ is happening with whoever's setting up melania's outfits

but

what

The Melania Code: A Thriller By Dan Brown

The poll had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points. Other recent polls also showed the Missouri race as a toss-up.

is credibility interval a fancy new term for 'margin of error'

it's a different way of representing broad uncertainty involved in polling -- one or the other is used based on how much you trust your #s vs how much you trust, for ex, your poll design

caek can maybe explain this better than me

a feast of trumpisms: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/my-private-oval-office-press-conference-with-donald-trump.html

Good on Eric Holder. I wondered why he was trending on TWitter.

xpost

i learned that everything is good, everything is great, and if it doesn't go so well, it's ok - it's going to be terrific in the end. also this administration has done more in the first two years than you can believe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9U8RFjoP2A

Boldly calling out "special interests."

more evidence that McConnell & co were full of shit about Kavanaugh boosting their electoral prospects

― Οὖτις, 10. oktober 2018 22:17 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Reminds me of the reaction after the tax bill. Which everyone could see was a stunningly inept piece of legislation, so bad that there was at times moments where it seemed it wouldn't pass a GOP-controlled senate - and boy, does a tax cut have to be badly drafted for the GOP to consider voting against it. And then when it passed anyway, they claimed that it might have looked bad, but the whole thing had gone exactly according to plan and was going to help them in the midterms. McConnell is cunning in the Baldrickian sense of the word.

that Nuzzi article in NY Mag, talk about access journalism

boy, does a tax cut have to be badly drafted for the GOP to consider voting against it

The GOP congressional talent pool is unlikely to be much deeper than the Trump admin talent pool. There’s no bright young things to help them do any of the actual work.

a feast of trumpisms: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/my-private-oval-office-press-conference-with-donald-trump.html

― mookieproof, Wednesday, October 10, 2018 2:26 PM (one hour ago)

This is seriously one of the most goddamn bizarre things I've ever read.

As I turned to follow Sanders and Shine out of the room, someone said, “Hey, Olivia.” I turned toward the room again to see Kelly and Ayers entwined, their arms stretched around each other and their faces pressed close together. They smiled theatrically. “This is my friend,” Kelly said.

“Yes, and he’s mine,” Ayers said. “And I told her that. She knows that.”