PECOTA is out

Yes -- he's listed as a Met.

What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?

.274/.325/.444
20 HR, 20 SB
22.4 VORP

are they projecting Ryan Zimmermann over David Wright?

yes, they have Zimmerman at .339/.420/.687

nb: I haven't seen it yet

what do they have wainwright at? also adam lolkennedy?

and the entire starting line up of the Florida Marlins?

Florida, offensively at least, looks okay on paper (Hanley, Uggla, Willingham, Hermida, etc.). Their pitching, on the other hand, looks like TROUBLE.

Byun-Hyung Kim is their projected #3 guy with 6-7, 4.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

Unless the Giants resign Bonds, PECOTA forecast they will have no player with a:

BA: >.293
OPB: >.348
SLG: >.449
OPS: >.781
HR: >15
BB: >37

that is simply disturbing.

just to compare, there are 5 Royals forecasted to have equivalent or higher OPS than the best Giant.

Revive, and let's compare that with the actuals:

BA: .306 (Randy Winn)
OBP: .385 (Ray Durham)
SLG: .445 (Bengie Molina) - advantage PECOTA
OPS: .791 (Fred Lewis)
HR: 16 (Bengie Molina)
BB: 59 (Randy Winn)

09PECOTA YSI? ;-)

Shasta not understanding PECOTA shockah?

Giants sound like YOUR TEAM there

oh no, a Giant hit 16 HR, PECOTA BROKE!

from kevin goldstein:

"According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, (Matt) Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That's good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and only 17 catchers have exceeded that mark in the history of baseball."

am i freaking out already? yes i am.

Oh now I get it... comparing a forecast with actuals as a measure of accuracy is "not understanding" in the magical world of Dr. Morbius.

lol YSI? ;-)

tis pity you don't grasp ranges of probability the way you do the brilliance of Slumdog Millionaire

I can grasp that the upper limits of the model/algorithim underprojected by -22%.

If you think the goal of forecasting/projections without measurable hold-out sample accuracy, you really should just stick to Spielberg toots.

also: YSI?

Matt Wieters is the new Alex Gordon. These guys seem to have short memories.

there's no such thing as a catching prospect

It's more that there is no such thing as a completely can't miss prospect. So few dudes OPS in the mid .900s so predicting that a guy is a sure thing to do just that seems insane to me.

soto seemed to somewhat live up to expectations, no?

I'm not saying rookies don't succeed (although Soto was not on the same level as Gordon/Wieters) just that a lot of can't miss All Star prospects become middle-of-the road ballplayers (*cough cough* Bobby Crosby.)

soto's projection was much less generous - 273/352/470

when was this offbase Alex Gordon forecast? Last year's 50th %ile projection had him with about a point lower VORP than he ended up with (19.6).

His rookie year PECOTA projected him as 280/380/520 w/ GG defense IIRC and Goldstein, Silver, Baseball America, et all talked him up like David Wright Mark II. He uh did not exceed expectations.

Sean Smith's CHONE, which has been shown to be just as good at projecting hitters as PECOTA, has Wieters projected at .274/.352/.439, compared to Mauer at .314/.410/.452, McCann at .297/.368/.503, and Sota at .279/.363/.474.

The new promising kid on the block in the projections world, Brian Cartwright's Oliver, has Wieters projected at .294/.373/.487, Mauer at .308/.377/.435, McCann at .285/.339/.491, and Soto at .270/.338/.443.

*longoriacough*

who is the worst victim of PECOTA-hype ever?

Sean Burroughs?

zomg:

It was during this time that Burroughs was given the nickname "The Bachelor," because all he could hit were singles.[4]

we all eagerly await the SHASTA projections as a followup to all this cherrypicking.

I never look at the damn things aside from the lines in the BP annual.

Mitchel Lichtman has more accurately predicted the # wins per team for the 05-08 seasons than PECOTA.

i have the nu pecota if anyone wants it

SUPERVORP

YSI?

just email me and i'll send it over (include ur email addy)

# of players forecasted to have a higher OPS than Barry Bonds had (1.045) in his final "retirement" season in MLB:

One

Albert Pujols (1.052)

I realize no result standings-wise would be shocking, but still, LOL.

CLE 84-79
MIN 79-83
DET 78-84
KAN 75-87
CHI 74-88

comedy central

parity at long last

A's take AL West with 82 wins

What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?

― earlnash, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 8:11 PM (11 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

.274/.325/.444
20 HR, 20 SB
22.4 VORP

The VORP projection for Brandon Phillips for last year was pretty spot on.

.261 .312 .442
21 HR 23 SB

why that can't be, Steve Shasta has proven it's worthless!

Bruce (St. Paul, MN): PECOTA predicts that Matt Wieters will hit .311/.395/.544 with a .319 EQA, 20 points higher than any other catcher. I know Wieters is a stud, but this seems way to high of a projection for a 22 year old catcher with zero AB's above AA. What are your thoughts?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:05 PM ET ) PECOTA was built using major-league stats, so I don't think it's as reliable on hitters without any big-league data. I mean, if Wieters does that, that's your AL MVP right there.

further KLaw:

"PECOTA's very good - I wasn't saying that it was bad, just that I trust it more on players with major-league experience."

Jamie Moyer’s card has been removed. He’s too ancient and weird for us to predict any aspect of his performance this year with PECOTA. Our official fantasy advice would be: don’t draft him.

I saw that. Hilarious.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8653