Is there anything the Labour Party can do to win the next election?

That is the cutest thing ever.

OK now that laxalt has spoken I am confident Labour will win the next election

ILX's very own mystic Mogg!

Had the Tories called a snap GE after the bounce they received post-Thatcher resignation/Major election, they may well have won. I do recall in mid-1990 - the absolute depths of Thatcher's unpopularity - there were polls suggesting Lab's huge lead would be wiped out by a change of Tory leader (Heseltine was the fave then, of course). They hung on for two years and, fortunately for them, Kinnock's popularity curved gently up, then down.

Labour's late '07/early '08 is the Tories' late '92...

"The term stalking horse originally derived from the practice of hunting, particularly of wildfowl. Hunters noticed that many birds would flee immediately on the approach of humans, but would tolerate the close presence of animals such as horses and cattle.

"Hunters would therefore slowly approach their quarry by walking alongside their horses, keeping their upper bodies out of sight until the flock was within firing range. Animals trained for this purpose were called stalking horses. Sometimes "fake" or pantomime horse-style outfits would be used."

I wouldn't mind so much if it actually involved ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise.

There is something so weirdly dissociated about the public announcement of stalking-horsism: ok wildfowl are a bit dim when it comes to the relationship of humans with guns and horses, fair enough THEY ARE BIRDS AND THEY HAVE TINY BRAINS, but actual real competent or even quite incompetent politicians are reading that someone has loudly announced their intention to get the hunter up close by means of a ruse

bah

*goes and has goat got*

birds obviously not that brainy as they cannot count legs; 4 safe, 6 danger

I wouldn't mind so much if it actually involved ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise

what am i saying jeremy vine has already started dressing up hasn't he

ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise

Design department on Newsnight working on this as we speak

Could they run ads with the slogan "Do you remember the last Tory government?", with a montage of images of Major, Thatcher, that guy who broke the pound, Michael Howard, and then David Cameron.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/images/new_labour_new_danger_1.gif

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_myerson/2008/05/we_are_really_in_trouble.html

Yougov, who had the results of the London Mayoral elections spot on (much closer than any other pollers), have just issued their latest poll figures:

CON 49%
LAB 23%
LD 17%

In an general election, that would mean the Tories elected with a majority of 288 seats.

I know people are annoyed with Labour at the moment... but are 1 in every 2 people that vote at the next election really going to vote Tory? I thought Britain had moved on.

On the topic of replacing Gordon Brown - even if they did the party did want rid of him, no serious contender (e.g. (i.e.?) Milliband) is going to blow their potential future career by taking office for a couple of years and then leading Labour to a horrible defeat in 2009. Better off taking over after the next election and rebuilding in opposition.

To be honest... the most positive outcome I can realistically imagine happening is a small Tory majority after 2009 election, followed by Labour victory in 2013/4.

http://bp1.blogger.com/_77g3DtXDJXE/SCGz1ZMVjAI/AAAAAAAAB3o/cQwAh-gdfzk/s320/waxworks.JPG

Melt him down and make a Boris Johnson.

Then Boris can leave the waxwork in his office and fuck off on holiday for the rest of his term.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7395545.stm

Here's a plan for Labour to win the next election. They should:

- use the rest of this year to get all their fiascos, feuds and buried bodies out in the open
- at the same time take a scattergun approach and bring in lots of new initiatives which will be unpopular in the short-term but which have a chance of paying off in late 2009/2010 (no idea what these might be, but bear with me)
- it will become obvious fairly quickly that half of these new initiatives are going to be disastrous. Spend the first half of next year pinning them firmly on Brown
- but remember to change the mood music so that the story in 2009 is not about Labour feuding, but about a government trying to cope with a difficult situation, it's just that Brown can't do this. Associate the successful initiatives with a handful of guys like Miliband, Johnson and so on
- at the same time, these guys prepare quietly for a leadership challenge in late 2009, ideally as a straightforward choice between someone likeable and Brown
- DON'T CHOOSE BROWN
- new leader strips out whatever old guard is left from Labour's first term, like Straw and Darling, so that the cabinet looks youngish but still recognisable
- call the general election shortly afterwards
- portray it as a choice between two fresh administrations, one with a bit more experience than the other, and hope for the benefit of the doubt

The only problem with this plan is that it relies on: i) party discipline; ii) the government having at least a few good ideas left in the locker; and iii) Brown agreeing to be the fall guy. So it won't work. Apart from that, it's foolproof.

I wonder if the talk about Field as a possible leader has got to him and he's trying to bring Brown down.

Field's creepy, there's a touch of the Enoch Powells about him

Why doesn't he just defect to the Tories and have done with it?

Cue stock "should have stuck to yodelling" pun of course.

Apparently a lot of the talk in Labour at the moment is of the "self-harm" strategy: try and get everything that can go wrong in the next three years to go wrong in the next six months, place the blame for everything entirely on Brown, then bring in Exciting New Leader. Except the choices there are Balls (no, just no) and Milliband (looks like a Tory).

Galloway to make a triumphant return as Labour party leader, then.

Milliband (looks like a Tory).

In that case, he's perfect... provided he thinks like a Tory too

Dom that's pretty much what Ismael Klata just said

Miliband just seems like a yes-man robot drone to me

ken livingstone for PM obv.

Next election let's just have Leon and Rhydian and vote for whoever cries more.

Galloway to make a triumphant return as Labour party leader, then.

http://images-srv.leonardo.it/progettiweb/nonsolocritiche/blog/1984-movie-bb1.jpg

I'll always vote for Ken Livingstone - as you can tell.

I like David Miliband OK.

I do not at all believe that Ed Balls could possibly be taken seriously as leader or PM. No way, for various reasons. Including: you can't stand for PM and be called 'Balls'. He can only ever be an underling.

The most charitable explanation re. Frank Field's behaviour is that he's doing everything he can to reverse the tax change, I suppose. But I don't care for him. He wasn't very nice back in 1997, as far as I know.

As Brown's tenure now looks as though it may be a short one I'd suggest that Yvette Cooper may be a strong bet to replace him.

Oh, God no

That smarmy git James Purnell is coming up thru the Field

That's true.

Cooper is better-looking.

Which in the end is what it's all about. Apparently.

Surprised the B*P haven't put up Dannii Minogue as a candidate yet.

Too far too the right.

http://www.lunarsociety.org.uk/photos/david_milibandm.jpg

You can't tell me that that isn't a Tory face.

plus is immigrant

xpost

NOT UNTIL WE KNOW ITS A FUCKING MOUSTACHE OR NOT

William Hill still has Browns most likely departure date as 2010 --- marginally ahead of 2009. Can see logic in this. Labour know the next election is a lost cause and getting rid of Brown now won't change that, and any serious contender is better off waiting till after they lose the election

Problem is - still - no credible candidates (the fact that people like Cooper are being mentioned here is surely not good for them)

If Brown - as expected - holds on as long as possible I think thats going to make winning the 2014 election very difficult for Labour no matter who they have as candidate.

Also see that Prescott and C.Blair are lining up to put boot into Brown

Important point in 2014, if 2012 Olympics are big success then the (Tory) government will take the credit for it. If it's a mess than that will be blamed on current administration.

Nah Labour got the blame for the Dome despite the fact that a lot of it was Heseltine's work.

How much of a factor does everyone think the Olympics will actually have?

Also am I right in saying the tories could actually hold off calling as late as 2015?

Feelgood factor innit? If the economy is going well in 2012 it could be encapsulate New Swinging London again or whatever nonsense.

Of course, Euro 96 didn't help Major but that's not such a flagship event.

Then again if the economy's going well then Britain won't unseat Cameron and Osborne anyway.

Yes but 2012 itself is unlikely to be an election year unless things have gone really messed up somewhere down the line? and by even the next year surely the olympics will have been more or less forgotten

as for feelgood factor this might be more prevalent but I think 2012 is prob a bit early for all that swinging london business again

economy may well be doing its 'green shoots of recovery' bit by then but doubt it will be to such an extent that we'll be all swinging london puff pieces in the supplements again

Also when/once the economy does start moving again surely the question that has to be asked is what sector is actually going to be driving it? esp when you look at the big 3 of the 00s

Finance?
Consumer Spending on debt?
Housing/Construction?

Or maybe a return of industry? but what industry?

woah 18% swing 8000 maj

How long as Crewe & Nantwich been Labour for? Am I right in thinking as a Labour seats it survived even the Thatcher landslides during the 80s?

Well it's only been a seat since 1983. Crewe was Labour before that, Nantwich's always been tory.

So, yes.

Next election seat spread average:

Conservative Party: 350
Labour Party: 231
Liberal Democrats: 46