2018 awards thread

https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/jacob-degrom-should-be-national-league-mvp/c-295265432

deGrom dominated the Nats with one run over seven innings, got the win (!) and probably locked up the Cy.

deGrom's a lock now; in what was a real close race a few weeks ago, he may even come close to winning unanimously. I can't see MVP, though.

The Triple Crown won't happen (Davis hit two HR), so I think that locks up MVP for Betts, unless you think vote-splitting will make room for Trout. Ramirez and Lindor have faded a bit in the second half; by WAR, Chapman's case is almost 40% defense, and I just can't see that in a year where Betts is such a blueprint MVP both traditionally and sabermetrically.

Betts would seem to be a virtual lock now after the last couple games, with Trout maybe possibly moving into the #2 spot at this point with his recent run.

Snell has a shot at 22 wins and is maybe locking it down as well, though he's not very inspiring as a #1 vote.

Betts has an outside chance at 11 WAR on Baseball Reference. The only two players to reach that this century were Bonds (twice) and Pedro in 2000.

And--forgot about this--he's only played 132 games. (Pro-rated, Trout's abbreviated season last year might have been in the same range.)

though he's not very inspiring as a #1 vote

He's got one clear shortcoming, his IP, and his BB/9 are a little high. But have things changed so much (or are we so spoiled by the recent bar set by Kershaw) that a guy with a 1.90 ERA, 5.6 H/9, and 10.8 K/9--I won't even mention the W-L record, which would only trigger squawking--is a pedestrian choice?

(Pro-rated, Trout's abbreviated season last year might have been in the same range.)

― clemenza, Monday, September 24, 2018 4:01 PM (two hours ago)

and his rookie year

His W-L record, incidentally, is not really a mirage.

In his 22 wins, he hasn't given up more than two runs, earned or otherwise.
In his 4 no-decisions, he gave up 0, 2, 0, and 1 run.
In his 5 losses, he pitched poorly in four of them and well (one run in 6.1 innings) in one of them.

Where he has been lucky is that he's picked up five wins where he didn't reach six innings. He pitched really well in these games--26 IP, 2 earned runs; he didn't give up an earned run in four out of the five games--but he left with a lead and the bullpen held it every time.

Overall:

21 wins: 1.09 ERA
5 losses: 7.71 ERA
4 no-decisions: 1.21 ERA

I'd say his W-L record reflects his game-level performance fairly accurately, with the caveat that he's never hit 8 IP even once this year. I don't know if that has more to do with him, where the game's at in general, or Tampa Bay's idiosyncratic strategies this year.

21 wins, that should read.

Whenever I do something like this, I know the general reaction is "Why are you bothering?" W-L record has been so thoroughly discredited by now, I think the general assumption is that every guy who puts up gaudy numbers did so mostly through random luck--that the record is hiding all sorts of cheap wins and lucky no-decisions. With someone like J. Happ, no argument, when you look a little closer, the season is never that good. And at the other end of the spectrum, you get seasons like deGrom's, his being an extreme case. But when Kershaw went 21-3, or with Snell this year, the W-L record is right in line with how well they pitched. And the four times where Snell didn't pitch well, he got tagged for a loss all four times.

Snell has been great but i'm a little ambivalent in a season where i suspect several AL pitchers have been more dominant overall. i'm not gonna sweat his win, tbh, i just think that IP total gives me a bit of pause.

who do you go with, then? sale and bauer have pitched even less (and sale is still unqualified)

Got even more curious about Snell's five under-six-IP wins: what was the score when he left?

May 29 vs. Oakland: left with a 3-1 lead after 5.2 IP, final score 4-3 (bullpen almost blew it in the 9th).

Aug. 10 vs. Toronto: left with a 4-0 lead after 5 IP, final score 7-0.

Aug. 16 vs. the Yankees: left with a 2-0 lead after 5 IP, final score 3-1.

Sept. 7 vs. Baltimore: left with a 7-2 lead after 5.1 IP, final score 14-2.

Sept. 18 vs. Texas: left with a 3-0 lead after 5 IP, final score 4.0.

The Toronto and NY games were soon after his DL stint, so they were obviously nursing him. Anyway, with three of those wins, he got a big assist from the bullpen--you would hardly expect to win all three games; the Toronto win, there was some help from the bullpen; the Baltimore win looked pretty safe when he left.

Pretty thorough explanation of deGrom over Scherzer (not much of an issue anymore):

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/9/24/17890872/breaking-down-the-degrom-scherzer-cy-young-battle-new-york-mets-washington-nationals-mlb-awards

i think 21 wins and a 1.90 ERA basically wraps it up for Snell, tho I think Verlander and Cole are both better options. Kluber's K-rates aren't as astronomical as they've been in the past, so that puts him pretty far behind the other dudes in my estimation.

yeah i'd vote for Verlander tbh

Sale getting pounded by AAA Baltimore pretty much seals the AL Cy for Snell.

Snell's adjusted ERA is actually better than deGrom's--he just misses the Top 20 all-time list.

There are many ways to illustrate Jacob deGrom's dominant & unusual season, but this one stands out to me: he limited opponents to a .521 OPS this season -- lower than the worst everyday hitter in MLB this season, Chris Davis (.539 OPS). https://t.co/AML9dagUr5

— James Wagner (@ByJamesWagner) September 27, 2018

he prob should win MVP too, tbh

Yelich in striking distance of the Triple Crown. Even if he gets I'm #teamdegrom for the NL MVP, but that would be one hell of an accomplishment.

Verlander as one other start, against the Orioles. A quality start, and it is the Orioles, should give him the Cy Young.

Yelich is a deserving candidate too, and his ridiculous hot streak in September as the Brewers surged will be fresh in voters' minds.

yeah, definitely. he has stepped it up recently.

6 RBIs on Tuesday, 5 walks on Wednesday. He's been unreal.

Just noticed that Yelich already had a HOF'er on his Similarity Score list before the season; I'm sure he'll one or two more after this year.

Similar Batters through 25

Chet Lemon (965.5)
Johnny Damon (954.7)
Gary Matthews (950.1)
Carlos May (949.9)
Delmon Young (945.2)
Nick Markakis (943.7)
Lee Mazzilli (941.4)
Al Oliver (941.3)
Dave Winfield (941.2) *
Sixto Lezcano (940.3)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer

(Never realized that Lee Mazzilli had a pretty decent run in the late '70s.)

"he'll add"

think about how legendary a Yelich/Ozuna/Stanton outfield would be

that is a weird list

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51pZnwi%2BOUL._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

think I read that as a kid lol

NL MVP

Metrics- Christian Yelich
Old skool- Javier Baez

That's a cool list on that similar players for Yelich. All those guys had solid MLB careers. I'd say maybe only a couple of them did not make at least one All Star team.

i accept that delmon young *had* a career, but solid is not how i'd describe it

I don't take Similarity Scores all that seriously, there are often a couple of oddball names on somebody's list, but it's a quick and fairly useful tool for getting an early line on somebody's HOF prospects. (Or at least was--it probably needs some revision.) If you're mid-career and there are three or four HOF'ers on your list, you're probably headed there yourself.

At 25, Delmon Young had a career, after that eh... Did play 10 years and I think is now playing with Kenny Powers in Mexico.

Chet Lemon (965.5) - came up earlier this year in a thread. His WAR totals are pretty impressive on BB Reference.

Lee Mazzilli (941.4) - remembered seeing him go from first to home on a blooper against the Cubs in the good old bad days.

Al Oliver (941.3)- Kool nickname with Skoop. Heck of a hitter and probably a bit under-appreciated. Career .303 hitter over 9000 at bats is pretty impressive.

Sixto Lezcano (940.3) - this guy had a way crazy batting stance. It was open and he leaned back really far.

^^^three pirate legends

Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have the same Top 4 in WAR:

1. Betts
2. Trout
3. deGrom
4. Scherzer

Baseball Prospectus is slightly different:

1. Trout
2. Betts
3. deGrom
4. Bregman
5. Scherzer

Nola starts tonight

Can Bob Melvin win a second manager of the year award?

^^ would be his third! (2007, 2012)

Jose Reyes is the Mets’ nominee for the Marvin Miller Man of the Year award.

It’s an MLBPA honor, with players voting for who they “most respect based on his leadership on the field and in the community.” https://t.co/Ef0WIFkHNh

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) October 12, 2018

Of course. Of course.

wow, the gold glove really is a stupid award, isn't it

is the Fielding Bible the best defensive award these days, i guess? is there anything else?

i get to vote for the Rawlings Platinum Glove Award, as a SABR member

actually i guess it's open to the Great Unwashed

https://www.rawlings.com/category-landing-pages/gold-glove-platinum-page.html

i'll have you know i bathed last week, sir.

insane that Lorenzo Cain has never won one

Happy #ElectionDay! Here's a reminder from your friends at Baseball-Reference about how important it is to vote! pic.twitter.com/1owgyChl6e

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) November 6, 2018

:D