2018 regular-season game chatter

Red Sox are also something like 20-X vs the Orioles where X is an interger >0 but <10 and Orioles /= a major league team

14-2

and in those games chris davis is 5-for-50 with 29 K

Boston is having a heck of a year and their lineup is really great but in a short series, I think Houston's starting pitching makes it a pick em.

Between Porcello, Price and Rodriquez, one of them will have to step up with Sale. Cole, Kuchel and Morton are a much stronger 2 through 4 in the rotation. Houston has more bullpen depth than last year. Playoff baseball takes a lot of pitchers and the back end of Boston's bullpen is probably their weak spot on the roster.

Preference wise, I'd kind of like Oakland to keep hot and make a run. I'd have no issue with Cleveland winning it all, but it would be a fluky run if they won it this year.

Yankees lineup can be diffused by a strikeout pitcher, it's really not unlike the later Torre teams. Teams will get 14 K's and a double play in a pitcher's dual and beat them 3-1 a couple of times.

I wouldn't say fluky -- all of Cleveland's core players are as good or better than they were last year. They'll win 90+ games and they're currently seven games off their expected W-L record, so talent wise they're a 100 win team or close to it.

i think cleveland also benefits from playing a bunch of games in the worst division in baseball, though. second place twins are 67-80

42-22 in division, 28-35 against the rest of the american league

Trevor Bauer is also hurt.

astros looked just a little more strapped in during the last series against the sox. felt like playoff baseball and it felt like the astros were the big boys.

Heard on the Jays broadcast that Justin Smoak is leading American League first basemen in OPS at .823.

Really? Talk about a position in decline. Some leading AL first baseman going back to the 2000 season:

Carlos Delgado - 41 HR/137 RBI/1.134 OPS
Jim Thome - 37/106/.929
Mike Sweeny - 29/144/.930
Jason Giambi - 43/137/1.123
Mo Vaughn - 36/117/.864
Rafael Palmeiro - 39/120/.954

I know those are unadjusted numbers, and I threw in RBI just because the numbers are big and shiny. There were another half-dozen good seasons at a lower level. This year, Justin Smoak's the benchmark.

adjusted
2018:
justin smoak - 24 HR/75 RBI/.823 OPS = 125 wRC+

2000:
Carlos Delgado - 41 HR/137 RBI/1.134 OPS = 179 wRC+
Jim Thome - 37/106/.929 = 131 wRC+
Mike Sweeney - 29/144/.930 = 129 wRC+
Jason Giambi - 43/137/1.123 = 183 wRC+
Mo Vaughn - 36/117/.864 = 114 wRC+
Rafael Palmeiro - 39/120/.954 = 130 wRC+

but yeah, it seems to be a bad year for AL first basemen. you have to go back to 2004 (Mark Teixeira, 129 wRC+) to find a similar level of meh for the league leader

I came back to post the adjusted numbers, but you beat me to it. I knew Vaughn was going to come in under Smoak's number; surprised Thome, Sweeny, and Palmeiro were so close. I chose 2000 at random; you could probably find a more impressive season for first basemen from around the same time.

key tiebreaker info as of right now

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-picture-update/c-293413208

exactly zero of the teams involved in a close postseason chase in the NL are playing today

phillies are 5.5 back, but 7 of their remaining 11 games are against the braves -- they win the first couple and it could get intersting

also gabe kapler has a full complement of 40 players at his disposal

nevermind

"Phantom Big-Leaguers" are a loosely defined group of star-crossed minor-leaguers who, in one way or another, were promoted to the majors but never appeared in a big league game https://t.co/58VpIzAKav

— Post Sports (@PostSports) September 20, 2018

some of these stories are pretty brutal

relieved that this didn't happen to poncedeleon

can't believe Nats haven't actually been eliminated yet

You sound like:

What a disappointing year for the Nationals.

— Ed Whelan (@EdWhelanEPPC) September 20, 2018

Lol

Still have a theoretical chance for four 100-win teams in the AL (Oakland would have to sweep their last five games, Yankees would have to win four). That was a story earlier in the year--was it that there's never even been three?

https://calltothepen.com/2017/10/05/baseball-history-2017-sixth-seasonwith-three-100-win-teams/

Here’s one name to keep in mind: Mike Matheny.

No, he wouldn’t be a GM candidate. But there’s a reason that Baer showed up for the Giants’ series in St. Louis last weekend, and it isn’t because he is addicted to toasted ravioli. Do not be surprised if the Giants find a way to hire Matheny in some capacity, with a potential route to take over the dugout bench in 2020.

And who was Matheny’s bench coach for a time in St. Louis? None other than David Bell, who is the Giants’ current farm director – and probably destined for a larger role.

What? No.

but he's such a great clubhouse guy, the players love him!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dn9MLjTXsAAVto0.jpg

Scherzer needs 10 strikeouts tonight to reach 300; he's got four through three innings.

I finished something I was watching on TV and checked in with Scherzer via Gameday. Bottom of the sixth, two out, and he's got 9 strikeouts and Austin Dean at bat. Scherzer falls behind 3-1, gets the next strike, and then Dean fouls off the next four pitches. On his 98th pitch of the game and 10th pitch of the AB, he gets his 300th strikeout.

NL Central race gonna get interesting

this afternoon's orioles starter got one out

david price is not doing a whole lot better

German Márquez struck out the first eight batters of the game tonight, tying a record; struck out another one that inning, so he's got 9 through 3 innings.

deGrom presumably final ERA is 1.70

also 269 K, third in team history behind Seaver (twice) and Gooden

so 4th, really

Yelich with 5 walks tonight, unreal

the rays are gonna win 90 and miss the playoffs by 7 or so games. unreal.

For some reason, Baseball Reference doesn't agree with Fangraphs on Rendon's season, but this is his third 6 fWAR season, second in a row, and the third time he finishes in the top 10 in fWAR. Third time he finishes as the best 3rd basemen in the National League (tied with Bryant last season), still no all star appearances.

CC drills a guy, gets ejected, loses $500k

@MarcCarig
CC Sabathia, by the way, is 2 innings away from triggering a $500,000 bonus. So, that would be some very expensive retaliation. Now, after the seventh inning, the price goes down significantly.

down 2-0 in the second in colorado and the phillies are playing the infield in

The "Bizarro Triple Crown."

https://www.mlb.com/news/triple-crown-leaders-in-the-other-league/c-296212788

I don't care about BA and RBI and wish no one else did.

No one has nailed down a playoff spot in the NL West, or first place in the Central. Pretty good for a last weekend.

what's wrong with BA??

oh god don't answer that

You don't want to judge a player by BA, but it is a measure of how many outs he makes, and that's pretty important--why, for instance, for all of Harper's HR and BB this year, his offensive WAR is under 4.0. He's made 550 outs.

NL Central race is pretty interesting, the Cubs are up 1 but get 3 against their rival Cardinals, who are still fighting for a playoff spot, while the Brewers get the Tigers. Most likely scenario is probably...a tie?

prefer True Avg OR Outs Made

How would outs made tell you anything without knowing how many times the player went to bat? Hence BA. Again, I'm not saying it gives anywhere close to a complete picture, and of course OBP is more important, but I don't think it should be disregarded. And I don't think there are many writers left who are touting Juan Pierre-type players for MVP.