JUAN SOTO seems like a big deal

Top 10 most Home Runs as a teenager:

1. Tony Conigliaro (Boston) 24
2. Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals) 22
3. Mel Ott (NY Giants) 19
4. Juan Soto (Washington Nationals) 18 <-Turns 20 October 25, 2018
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. (Seattle) 16
6. Phil Cavarretta (Cubs) 14
7. Mickey Mantle (NY Yankees) 13
8. Ed Kranepool (NY Mets) 12
9. Robin Yount (Milwaukee) 11
10. Harmon Killebrew (Washington Senators) 9

Only one behind Harper now.

Tied with Harper. Will more than likely not break Conigliaro's record, but still an incredible feat.

juan soto hit the roof of the Tokyo Dome tonight, turning a no-doubt home run into an out at the warning track (ground rules, at least in that stadium, allow the ball to remain in play)

that sucks for him, but ultimately is a much better story

They're very close statistically, but pretty sure Acuna will win ROY this week. Soto has a 40-point edge in OBP, Acuna a 35-point SLG advantage, and their BA is even; that makes Soto the more productive hitter, but it'll be viewed as a wash (Acuna's OPS+ is actually a little higher; five fewer GDP, for one thing), and Acuna has more HR and--going by dWAR, anyway--better defense.

James's rundown of last year's rookies:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_rookies_of_2018/

"Acuna ranks a little ahead of Soto because he had almost the same OPS and better defense in a tougher park for a hitter, but in all honesty I think I would choose Soto."

my man bill james otm

acuña deserved the ROY but i think i'm more impressed with soto's season

― mookieproof, Tuesday, November 13, 2018 3:16 PM (two weeks ago)

My first “Juan Soto is good” tweet of the year. Juan Soto is good.

— FantasyRundown.com (@FantasyRundown) March 30, 2019

Best OBP before age-21 (min. 550 PAs):
1. Ted Williams - .436
2. Mel Ott - .414
3. John McGraw - .412
4. Jimmie Foxx - .410
5. Juan Soto - .402https://t.co/mgTtlNrgK5

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) April 18, 2019

20yo Juan Soto's MLB career SLG > 20yo Vlad Jr's career MLB OPS

geez give VGJ more than a week

my brain kept trying to read that acronym as jeff van gundy

future dh

He's now played 162 games:

292/.402/.519 with 31 homers, 107 runs & 107 RBI.

what were Trout's first 162? can someone PlayIndex that?

https://moretalk.wordpress.com/2012/09/15/mike-trout-the-first-162-games/

.309/.374/.531 (accomplished while 2 years older than Soto)

that's a very impressive line from trout, too, considering that his first 40 games (during his rookie 2011) he slashed vajazzled .220/.281/.390

Two homers today. Soto won't come anywhere near Trout's 10.5 WAR in his age-20 season (defense and juiced ball, among other things), but his raw offensive totals in many categories are going to match or surpass Trout's.

Juan Soto (@Nationals) is the 3rd player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs before turning 21 years old, joining Mel Ott (61) and Tony Conigliaro (56). pic.twitter.com/qjMLcRG8si

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 18, 2019

Soto's got such a nice fluid swing, I would not be surprised if he starts hitting over .300 at some point.

Nats have hit the draft lottery twice in a short time, pretty nice to be able to replace Harper pretty much straight up with perhaps a higher ceiling.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/juan-soto-becomes-first-nl-player-to-hit-30-home-runs-in-a-season-before-age-21-since-frank-robinson/

Soto's got such a nice fluid swing, I would not be surprised if he starts hitting over .300 at some point.

― earlnash, Sunday, August 18, 2019 5:21 PM (two weeks ago)

prescient post

Lifted this from Sports Illustrated:

And because Soto has a Baseball Reference-calculated Wins Above Replacement mark of 5.0 and Acuña is at 4.8, they are, in all likelihood, going to end up on this short list of pairs of players under 22 to share a 5-WAR season:

Donie Bush (6.5) and Tris Speaker (6.3), 1909
Jimmie Foxx (7.9) and Mel Ott (7.4), 1929
Eddie Mathews (8.3) and Mickey Mantle (5.8), 1953
Al Kaline (8.2) and Hank Aaron (6.3), 1955
Frank Robinson (6.6) and Kaline (6.5), 1956
Trout (10.5) and Harper (5.2), 2012
Trout (9.0) and Machado (6.7), 2013

that trout guy was good

That was the premise of the SI piece I took that from: that Acuña/Soto are the new Trout/Harper (acknowledging that the latter is a non-issue now).

Devers (22) has a fWAR of 5.5 (ie, higher than Acuna & Soto)

or wait is it <=22 or <22?

wow that's a very impressive list of HOFers, future HOFers, some guy named Donie Bush, and Bryce Harper.

Per Baseball-Reference, Soto joins Alex Rodriguez, Ruben Sierra and Jose Canseco as the only major-league hitters in the last 50 years to record a 30-homer, 100-RBI, 10-steal season before their age 22 season.

I don't really understand his contract status:

Signed thru 2019, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2022, Earliest Free Agent: 2025

If he's only signed through this season but not eligible for arbitration until 2022, what does that mean for 2020 and 2021?

i'm not sure about the technical/legal background but it's similar for other pre-arb players. soto is definitely under team control through 2022

by "similar" i mean you'll see the same kind of contract status for other pre-arb players

Thanks. Baseball Reference should make that clearer...if they control him until 2022, why not just say "signed through 2021." There's almost an implication of the old reserve-clause system there, where the Nationals can just renew him for whatever they want in 2020/21.

hey clemenza, just noticed that fangraphs has updated their contract summary pages for each team. i don't know what you usually refer to for that kind of information, but to me this is pretty much the easiest and simplest way to get it. here's the page for the nats:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/nationals

and here's more info: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/introducing-rosterresource-payroll-pages/

One of the things that makes Juan Soto special is his mature approach at the plate. The Nationals outfielder may not be able to legally buy alcohol in the United States, but he doesn’t just have the discipline of a seasoned vet, he has the discipline of Joey Votto in his prime. A 15 percent walk rate would be good for anyone, but it’s incredible for someone who is younger than OK Computer.

His low chase rate is the primary driver of his ability to draw a walk, but Soto has another strategy he employs. When the count reaches two strikes, Soto crouches down lower to shrink his strike zone.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/9/4/20848679/juan-soto-washington-nationals-two-strike-crouch-robot-umps

Kinda faded a bit over the last 2 weeks of the season, but can now add "clutch postseason heroics" to his CV.

Juan Soto is the second youngest player in postseason history to have a WPA over .500 in a game.

The youngest, Miguel Cabrera, did it in Game 4 of the 2003 NLDS, a series-clinching game but not an elimination one https://t.co/XL00s8G42k pic.twitter.com/kPjbewAa9k

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) October 2, 2019

<3

https://sports.theonion.com/juan-soto-sheepishly-asks-group-of-nationals-fans-enter-1838887733

so did Miggy or Cobb homer as a WS cleanup hitter under 21?

Youngest to hit a World Series home run: Andruw Jones, 19 years, 180 days; Miguel Cabrera, 20 years, 187 days; Mickey Mantle, 20 years, 352 days; Juan Soto, 20 years, 362 days.

Soto & Jones are the only <20 year olds to hit a HR in their WS debut.

Nats Dominican academy pic.twitter.com/vLIoQLrWF5

— johnny (@dipuglia) October 23, 2019

Happy birthday, Juan Soto!

We will adjust our World Series content accordingly. pic.twitter.com/jAICJ0t14q

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) October 25, 2019

Watching Juan Soto lash a beautiful oppo homer this afternoon is as good a reason as any to gaze in wonder yet again at his career XBH spray chart. pic.twitter.com/g3RJlP7H6D

— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) February 25, 2020

cardinals broadcast made sure to keep track of how long his home run trot was (25.5 seconds)

iirc last week when someone asked him what his goals for spring training were, he said 'to make the team'

otm

i think he will probably make the team

also leading in CS weirdly enough

I noticed that too. Weird: 23/28 his first three years, 9/16 this year. He got bolder and slower simultaneously.

juan soto in 67 second-half games: .369/.542/.682, 18 HR, 81 BB, 34 K

juan soto in 26 september games: .430/.590/.744, 7 HR, 34 BB, 8 K

now leads the NL in both fWAR and bWAR for position players (the latter by quite a bit). envisioning a pujols-like run here

wow, by fWAR he's ahead of everyone in the AL too, including vlad and semien, by just a smidge.

by pujols-like run do you mean his consistency in the 2000s? seems right to me, just watching him. even his lesser stretches (first half 2021) are still very, very good by almost any other measure other than himself

yeah, basically where he's a top-five mvp candidate for the next seven years in a row. more fun soto splits (this season):

he's hitting .469/.463/.813 on first pitches, so don't throw him a first-pitch strike. but then he's hitting .588/.600/1.147 on 1-0 pitches, so

Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million contract from the Washington Nationals before the lockout, according to this @Enrique_Rojas1 report. In the story, Soto confirms the offer.

More from Enrique at @ESPNDeportes: https://t.co/zNnlWTb9Rd

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 16, 2022

He has 6 home runs this year, and a total of 7 RBIs.

juan soto is in one of the worst slumps of his career.

https://i.imgur.com/SYsTbAb.png

juan soto is batting 25% better than the average MLB hitter (wRC+ 125, .214/.265/.432 with 14 HRs)
juan soto's babip is .207, more than 100 points below any other season.
juan soto has 20.0 fWAR and is 23 years old.

Turned down a 15 year/$440M extension. My guess is that no amount would have been sufficient.

That sounds crazy but I honestly can't blame him for thinking he could get more, possibly a lot more, if he hits FA, and he wouldn't have to spend some of his best years on a rebuilding team. Would really only need to get like 10/400 at 26 to beat it and possibly even leave an opportunity for another decent payday at 36.

$440M seems like a big deal.

he's gonna be a yankee, isn't he

With six playoff teams per league, "rebuilding" doesn't mean what it used to.

Can't blame Soto for wanting to bet on himself though.

i feel bad for nats fans

I can’t believe there seems to be a growing consensus that he will be traded in a week or two. My guess is that it probably costs a team their top 3-5 prospects plus some of their current starters.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-juan-soto-available-the-nationals-have-upended-the-trade-market/

Goofy trade scenarios (skimmed--I think the writer's just making them up).

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/exploring-juan-soto-trades-no-matter-how-far-fetched/

whats going on here.

The #Padres, barely clinging to the final wild-card berth, are still awaiting dividends on their blockbuster trade:
Juan Soto is hitting .063 (3-48) without an extra-base hit in his last 15 games; .202 with 7 RBI in 35 games since his arrival.
Josh Bell is hitting .204/.319/.307.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) September 16, 2022

And that's not even to mention Josh Hader's 4-digit ERA as a Padre. What's going on?

san diego is where stars go to die

It’s fascinating to me how bad the deadline deals have worked out so far to the Padres. And I say that as a person who wants them to do well.

I was gonna post that Drury's been great but I see he only has a 700 OPS too!

just a poorly timed slump

Haven't read it yet, but Posnanski has a column on Soto today:

What gives? At ages 21 and 22, Soto was channeling Ted Williams. Now, all due respect, he’s channeling Ted Sizemore. How can we make sense of any of this?

san diego is where stars go to die

― Spottie, Friday, September 16, 2022 1:41 PM (seven months ago)

Probably no surprise, in view of the fact Soto again leads the league in BB; Posnanski (with some numbers for support) thinks Soto has become too selective.

I've got to believe he'll come back--if not all the way, at least to an All-Star level. Mostly I liked the Ted Sizemore reference in that quote.

Finally, finally--having a player-of-the-month May:

.346/.485/.680, 11 doubles, 5 HR

I don't know if there was any validity to that "too selective" theory (always a dicey proposition). Has he become more aggressive? Twenty-one walks for the month would suggest otherwise. Tim?

(Will be seeing them/him in July.)

MVP already locked up.

Is this the Yankees thread now?

I hope he's a Yankee forever

At least for as long as they're playing the asstros

kinda weird to see the team happy tho ngl

I don't know who Sal Licata is, but he's taken it upon himself to revive the whole Joey Votto thing from 15 years ago, complaining about Soto being selective when there are runs that need to be knocked in. (From what I've seen in a cursory look around, he gets lots of pushback via comments.)

so to clarify, some guy is talking about something that happened 15 years ago

No--he's talking about something happening now, and not especially insightfully. I'm drawing the comparison to what Votto went through 15 years ago.

Massive if true. I'm gonna pay more attention to Sal Licata from here on out.

You see how incredibly timely my post was? In the midst of a Jays meltdown today, Soto came up with two out, runners on second and third, score 4-4. He had the discipline to work a full-count walk, including a called strike that wasn't even close. Which brought Judge up, who knocked in two (also shook off a terrible strike call). If Soto isn't Soto, he probably chases and makes the third out.

Anyway, is this a new ILX policy, that we shouldn't be posting about stupid stuff people say? There goes 63% of all posting.

We prefer to run with "in-house" stupidity round these parts

That's some real, the-antagonist-scouts-in-moneyball, type logic tho! You can see that exact thought coming from the round table drafting scene at the beginning of the movie