2018 awards thread

you weren't the only one confused by bauer's status

https://deadspin.com/mlb-network-falls-for-joke-report-that-trevor-bauer-is-1828439637

DeGrom continuing to make the NL Cy race a bit more interesting.

I think if Sale misses any significant time beyond this DL stint, maybe due to Boston wanting to play it safe with him, it’ll probably wind up being Verlander. Though if Kluber finishes like he did in his two previous Cy seasons, it’ll start to get competitive.

And if CK won a third I guess would start to bring up HOF chatter, even with his late start. There have been players who have won two Cys and are on the outside looking in w/r/t the HOF but everyone w/three or more has made it (or has PED issues.)

If Kluber ends up winning #3, his HOF case--interesting already--will become really interesting. I used to think Mike Scott wasn't a bad precedent for Kluber, but Kluber's way past him now (and also has a two-year jump on Scott).

Klubot made me look up another 2x Cy winner in Bret Saberhagen, who wasn’t merely good but he was phenomenally great. And he was probably the third best pitcher in MLB during the peak era of Gooden and BoSox Clemens. He put up around 40 bWAR thru his age 27 season and then injuries took him off the HOF track. Without injuries he’s a first-ballot guy.

Jacob deGrom is the fourth pitcher in National League history to strike out 200+ batters and post a sub-2.00 ERA through 25 starts. The others:

Sandy Koufax (1966)
Pedro Martinez (1997)
Clayton Kershaw (2014)

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 21, 2018

i know ERA is not the most reliable stat, but that's good company

DeGrom continuing to make the NL Cy race a bit more interesting.

I think if Sale misses any significant time beyond this DL stint, maybe due to Boston wanting to play it safe with him, it’ll probably wind up being Verlander. Though if Kluber finishes like he did in his two previous Cy seasons, it’ll start to get competitive.

And if CK won a third I guess would start to bring up HOF chatter, even with his late start. There have been players who have won two Cys and are on the outside looking in w/r/t the HOF but everyone w/three or more has made it (or has PED issues.)

― omar little, Sunday, August 19, 2018 3:09 PM (two days ago)

degrom gets my vote now I think. and to me sale is still the favorite for the AL.

HOF chatter started with kershaw a few years ago. he's a shoo-in

by CK he meant kluber

ah right

All three NL Cy contenders start today:

https://www.mlb.com/news/degrom-scherzer-nola-vie-for-cy-young/c-291491520

edge to nola

Definitely helped himself today--sounded like a great game, with some unexpected wildness from Scherzer.

bWAR thru yesterday:

Nola 8.9
Scherzer 8.0
deGrom 7.5

fWAR:

deGrom 6.9
Scherzer 6.0
Nola 5.4

also Goldschmidt leading NL batters in bWAR

that's a solid turnaround from his "slow start" (which was really only an extremely shitty May): his slash this year is .297/.402/.555, last season's was .297/.404./.563.

I like the idea (Posnanski's?) of combining both WARs. Then it gets really close: Nola and deGrom tied at 14.4, Scherzer at 14.0 (extra close if you then credit Scherzer with a slight "old-school" edge).

The NL Cy is close enough that it comes down the last five or six starts. Predicting a winner now is pointless.

But we’re going to do it anyways and I choose Scherzer!

bWAR thru yesterday:

Nola 8.9
Scherzer 8.0
deGrom 7.5

fWAR:

deGrom 6.9
Scherzer 6.0
Nola 5.4

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, August 24, 2018 7:31 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

very bizarre

Jeff: I know the basic difference of ERA vs FIP for Pitcher WAR between bbref and Fangraphs, but my question is why at the top of the leaderboards is bWAR higher than fWAR I.e. Nola 8.7 vs 5.4, Scherzer etc.

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: fWAR basically regresses every pitcher to a standard ball-in-play baseline. bWAR is unregressed in that way, making it easier to run a high number

The best thing I ever read on the difference was something Posnanski wrote comparing Pedro's 1999 and 2000 seasons. Fangraphs preferred one, Baseball Reference the other, and it basically came down to the difference between what should have happened and what did happen. And he argued both sides in a way that made perfect sense.

Kluber koughed up five runs vs KC yesterday. Getting very interesting there...i guess it depends on Sale’s return but Blake Snell(!) is looking like a competitor too.

Repeat of last week: Scherzer-Nola, with deGrom against the Cubs. Very reminiscent of Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw in 2015.

Nola winning this matchup thus far. DeGrom in a nice duel with Hamels.

it might be reminiscent of 3 years ago if i could remember what happened then

speaking of past awards controversies, it'll be interesting to see what happens with the AL MVP if JD Martinez wins the triple crown (he's currently leading in BA (.337, betts at .336) and RBIs (110), and a close second to Khris Davis (38 to 39). but by fWAR he's 7th in the AL, far behind betts, ramirez, and trout (by bWAR he's 8th)

Betts is clearly the best player on that team. i think there's been enough erosion in Dinosaurland to make Martinez doubtful.

deGrom 8 IP, 1 ER in a tie game

he's allowed 11 ER in 11 no-decisions this season, for an ERA of 1.41 (along w/90 K in 70.1 IP, WHIP around 0.95...etc)

Has a Cy Young winner ever finished with a losing record?

Closest I can come up with is King Felix @ 13-12 in 2010?

Eric Gagné

Ooh, that's one to keep in the back pocket.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/harrison-bader-rookie-of-the-year/

and i'm not sure he's even the best rookie cardinal outfielder (tyler o'neill is the broiest bro of broberg, bro, but he's also a weightlifter bro)

have Bader's golden locks made him a matinee idol?

Paul DeJong much foxier imho

Tyler O'Neill plays the Mozart

https://www.instagram.com/p/bAsnWWza3v/

I think this is less surprising in a *Canadian* weightlifter.

i want bader's locks to go full-on colby rasmus. let them flow, and let the people see them flow!

ok, i just tried to do a rough simulation and it came out looking like jaso, so nevermind

https://i.imgur.com/QWtvjmG.jpg

also i don't know how hair works.

bader just looks like a stereotypical '80s movie preppie asshole, especially when he rocks this look

no idea on AL Cy now. I had typed out a ranking will Snell at the top, but I'm not sure. His IP numbers are pretty low, and Kluber has been coming on very strong and might get to 20 wins (as could Snell, admittedly.) bWAR has Kluber 3rd in the AL behind Sale and Snell, and fWAR has him 5th behind Sale, Bauer, Cole, and Verlander (with Snell down in 9th behind Severino, Carrasco, and Clevinger.)

Sale would have to come back and really put up some numbers to move back up to the top i think, and while I'm sure he will perform well I'm not sure Boston will ride him very hard at the end with things getting increasingly locked up.

Verlander finished great last year, as did Kluber.

Gonna be a close one!!!

Sale's clearly the best pitcher in the league, so too bad that he probably won't win now. I'd say that Kluber's the default choice, but except for IP, Snell's line is awesome.

Sale currently still leads both versions of WAR among AL pitchers. A starter might well win a Cy with < 162 IP soon. Sale's at 146 and presumably will make a start or two this month.

You'll be able to spot the most sabermetric NL MVP voters because they will have some combo of Scherzer, deGrom and Nola at the top of their ballots. (Because those are almost certainly the best players in the league.)

also, it's not clear Kluber has been the best pitcher on the Indians.

yeah obv that rotation is an embarrassment of riches, Kluber's probably the best pitcher overall but as far as which one of those guys has been having the best 2018, it's another story.

Boston's method of handling Sale the rest of the way seems to indicate he may only get up to 5 IP per start for his final outing, which is pretty wise but i think it really does bring down his Cy chances, only bc of voter perception. i agree w/you on principle, assuming you believe he *should* win as it stands right now.

wasn't it a pretty tight race before sale went out?

A starter might well win a Cy with < 162 IP soon.

This technically already happened in 1984 with Rick Sutcliffe :) But seriously, I think you're right and it'll happen within the next five years or so.

Kluber has been great, but not as great as in his two Cy Young winning seasons, so it becomes mostly about those extra IP. Expect to see arguments like "if Sale pitched another 50 innings with a 7.50 ERA, then his ERA+ and WAR would equal Kluber's, so how could that possibly strengthen his case for the CY?"

Weird to see so many pitchers already over 200 K and only one of them within a solid quality start of getting to 200 IP.

And Randy Jones! As a '70s guy, that had me smiling mightily. (Did he think to check in with Clay Kirby?)

Who, come to think of it, once lost 20, and in '71/'72 went 27-27 with a ERA under 3.00. Clay would have counselled that he vote for deGrom.

Maffei, 70, said

Scherzer and Nola were somewhat closer to deGrom than the tally indicates. Worrying about whether an award vote is unanimous... idgi. That said, if pitchers are supposed to be eligible for the MVP, the 8 guys who blanked deGrom clearly don't believe it.

And here's Jeff Sullivan who cast his AL vote for Verlander:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/i-voted-for-justin-verlander/

I always like looking at updated award-shares on Baseball Reference. Scherzer has moved into 8th-place on the Cy list; Verlander into 11th; and Kluber into 15th. (Kershaw was shut out for the first time since 2010.) Trout is 11th on the MVP list--5.06 shares, which at least is a lot more representative than his two awards.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml

James had a tweet that 97 MVPs are in the HOF, 59 are not, 63%. But I assume the not-in total includes all active winners, some of whom will move into the other column. Of the last 23 winners starting in 2005--Pujols' first MVP; all winners before that are retired--I'd estimate that 12-15 will end up in the HOF, making the ratio more like 110-46, or 70%.

I liked the Jeff Sullivan piece above--he's basically trying to figure out the same thing I was, how Snell gave up more baserunners than Verlander but fewer runs. He's doing it at a microscopic level--I can't do that--whereas I landed on HR and GIDP (I don't think he mentions either). And he's trying to figure out "To what extent was Snell responsible for his results?" He seems to conclude that there's a lot of luck and good defense involved, while also conceding that "I know pitchers sometimes try to pitch to their ballparks or defenses or whatnot."

I look at Snell's 15-3 advantage in GIDP (in fewer innings) and think, well, give four of the extra double-plays to his defense, four of them to luck/shifting, and the other four to Snell (pitchers do try to induce ground balls, right?). Pure guesswork, I know, but Sullivan admits that there's conjecture in what he does, too: "It’s very possible, if not probable, that’s not giving Snell enough credit. Maybe he was in some way able to pitch to his defenders."

I don't think there's a right answer. His evidence is interesting, but it's so granular, I think you're starting to drift away from the reality of all those extra runs. I liked this reader comment: "Some day, people will be using nothing but spin rate and pitch location to vote for Cy Young. Shortly thereafter, the award will be retired."

Reader commenter OTM.

Some people tried to make a case for Rizzo based on WPA during the year that Harper won MVP. Nobody claimed that Rizzo had some magical clutch hitting ability, or that it was a repeatable skill, but the bottom line is that those hits did help his team win games, which obviously counts for something. If they'd been closer in WAR it might have made an impact on the voting, like with Snell and Verlander.

khris davis beats out j.d. martinez for the edgar martinez designated hitter of the year award

which is pretty absurd

Huh? I'm pretty easy-going when it comes to award voting--I can at least almost always see the outline of the argument as to why some guy did or didn't win, even if I don't agree. But that makes zero sense. You're talking about .247/.326/.549 vs. .330/.402/.629., 2.9 WAR vs. 6.4. Not even close, no matter what metrics you use.

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Martinez appeared in 32 games as a RF, another 25 games in LF, 93 as DH.
Davis appeared in 11 games as a LF, 139 as DH.

i guess they just saw Davis as more of a pure DH? beats me

apparently voters are instructed to take only stats as a DH into account; martinez hit .297/.373/.597 with 27 HR and 79 RBI in 93 games/400 PA as a DH while davis did essentially everything as a DH

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

i mean...i'd still take that production over davis but ok

David Price and Jonny Venters have been named winners of the 2018 American League and National League Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 20, 2018

Wow, I didn't know Venters' story.

Khris Davis's magic .247 hat trick carried the day

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Is this actually comprised of former DHs? What did Jeff Burroughs know, and when did he know it?