Your 2020 Presidential Candidate Speculation Thread

Not sure if this got posted

always psyched when new folks stop by my happy hour pic.twitter.com/zWl4MmfNdF

— we're going to abolish ICE (@SeanMcElwee) August 10, 2018

can we keep trump outta this thread tho

Yes please

come on down, Eric Swalwell

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/20/politics/swalwell-consider-president-2020-cnntv/index.html

i heard andrew yang discuss dem pres campaign and i tried to envision the most technocratic policy revisions evar getting traction. still, if conditions decline as forcefully as he envisions, death might be more desirable, just in terms of societal collapse factors.

watch out america, garcetti is coming

I am concerned for the Mayor's safety. This crowd is dangerously fired up. Someone please call the Ohio National Guard pic.twitter.com/Pdv1kHOwNm

— Hayes Davenport (@hayesdavenport) September 7, 2018

it's so sad that he survived the joker only to be felled by bane's attack on the football stadium :(

I want Flake to run. I do. It will be like watching red ants set upon stale meat.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) October 16, 2018

I'd prefer not to give Trump the easy W of getting to own fuckboys like Flake and Sasse and Kasich on TV for six months.

Sasse won't run against Trump. I doubt Flake will. Kasich badly wants to and probably will.

Mittmentum

and he’s going to get eaten alive

Mittens won't challenge Trump. Kasich wants to real bad though. I don't think it will go well for him.

anyone who runs will know exactly what they're up against this time

Not so sure about that

i honestly can't think of a republican who would stand a chance in that primary field at this point, trump has so completely warped that party's brains. My racist republican uncle slams Paul Ryan, Sasse, Romney, Kasich almost as much as he continues to bring up Hillary clinton

They won't win, but they might succeed in reexposing the Republican party to values that they associated with that party in their youth. Honesty, dignity, ideological principles (not mine, mind), maybe even reality.

In truth, though, the next election will be decided by gasoline prices, which in my opinion will be north of $6/gal. Dems can run anyone more charismatic than HRC and Trump loses. I still hope its a national security Dem, as I'd like the GOP to become a minority party for two generations.

Gas prices? What makes you think that?

wtf / whomst tf is a "national security Dem"

gasoline prices, which in my opinion will be north of $6/gal

Shale oil and fracking will probably keep gas prices under that $6/gal threshold for a while longer, but there is a lot of liquidity in the system now, with few places to re-invest it for a quick profit, so inflationary pressures are going to build until the bubble bursts again, which could happen before 2020. In which case, gas prices are def not going to be north of $6/gal.

Biden

xp

Sasse won't run against Trump. I doubt Flake will. Kasich badly wants to and probably will.

― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, October 17, 2018 7:11 PM (fifty-nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

kasich has been running against trump for the last 3 years, trump has been running for the last 4. if Biden runs will be living in 2016 for the rest of our lives

I feel like Beto O'Rourke and some attack dog as VP would probably be a good ticket. They absolutely need to run someone out there who is not 80 years old.

Gas prices definitely an underappreciated sleeper issue for 2020 (even without SA kicking off) but the rest of that sanpaku post ... I don’t know

speaking of the superannuated....

From Esquire, June 1982. Joe Biden's been considered presidential material for nearly 40 years. The undead walk among us. pic.twitter.com/sehBI2jONc

— Dennis Perrin (@DennisThePerrin) October 17, 2018

stopped clock

> wtf is a "national security Dem"

Military and State dept vets. I've mentioned Seth Moulton upthread as the JFK-alike natural VP pick for 2020 (and he would be a contender for the top slot in 2024+ after a stint in the Senate/MA governor), but there's Gabbard etc. and a whole slate of 2018 newcomers.

As for oil prices, the secular trend is driven by the lack of major conventional reservoir discoveries over the past 50 years or megaproject investments over the last 10 (Chris Skrebowski used to be a great resource on this). US shale wells experience annual decline rates of 25-30%, so with increasing scale they've become a Red Queen's race ("running to stand still") with little opportunity for market impacts. There's a huge backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells in the main plays, but again, the scale and protracted price slump has resulted in a severe shortage of enough fracking completion crews or wastewater disposal to markedly increase production over the next couple years. As for the companies involved, shale E&Ps screwed their shareholders years ago, screwed their institutional creditors over the past couple years, and the Fed cash spigot is closing thanks to "full employment". So, its still all about the Saudis and Iranians.

Serious Chevy Chase vibes off that '82 Biden pic.

maybe all men looked like that in 1982

no. as I recall it, they did not.

Here's @KamalaHarris doing what @MichaelAvenatti got called out for. I'm a bit conflicted on this, because it's important to build small-donor capacity, but also important to be transparent in how it's done... pic.twitter.com/4Z4EHLftwh

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 8, 2018

She should fire the consultant who told her this was an acceptable ploy. The fact she agreed to it is troubling.

Yeah what the hell

Gillibrand did the same kind of split donation thing with Heidi Heitkamp: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kg4hh
and Sanders did it with Whitmer: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bernie-whitmer?refcode=tw181020-photos

It seems to be more of a common thing than I initially thought when I first saw someone point it out (wrt Sanders/Whitmer). Afaict, all of the pages are completely upfront about the way the money is split so idk what I think.

not votin' for no cop

thanks Sund4r

i thought it was incredibly lame when avenatti did it.
i think it's incredibly lame that any of them do it. maybe it's the default setting on actblue, or something.

not votin' for no cop

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, November 8, 2018 11:26 PM (twenty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think we'll all have to keep our minds open

I’m not gonna say word one against anyone who won’t vote for Harris bc she’s a cop

It seems like all these people have partnered with ActBlue for small $ fundraising now because it's easier maybe? But it does seem like the default setting, even though it gives you the option to play around with the allocation, is to go 50/50 and there's no way none of their web people have overlooked that.

a district attorney is not the same as a "cop" ffs

The attorney general of every state (or of the US as a whole) is commonly referred to as the "top cop."

That's not a common phrase in my mouth, in my house, or among any of my acquaintances.

Maybe "common" was the wrong descriptor. More like it's not unheard of for people to use that term.

otm

inslee will run btw, locally we are all planning on it (then constantine v ferguson for wa gov)

a district attorney is not the same as a "cop" ffs

oh c'mon they are prosecutors which are basically the cop's evil twin

will not vote for her in primary if possible, would vote for her in general because of course duh

Gillibrand was comedically evasive on Colbert tonight, but the implication is--thanks to Tuesday night--her 2020 campaign office now has both a location AND furniture picked out.

These people aren't going to Iowa and South Carolina for the culture. I expect at least two of the major contenders to announce before Valentine's Day 2019. Warren may do it before the end of the year, considering how eager she was to do that DNA stunt.

not that into Gillibrand either, what with the deliberately proud Blue Dog stance

does Duckworth have any negatives? I don't see any immediate red flags for me there

the deliberately proud Blue Dog stance

How recently are we talking? Because she's been no Blue Dog in quite a few years.

Maybe it's calculated and opportunistic, of course, but I also don't dismiss it out of hand. I'm a hell of a lot more progressive now than I was 10 years ago too.