2018 awards thread

Bill James mowin' em down!

Dang! Talk about single seasons of greatness.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jamesbi02.shtml

Martinez and Betts will split votes, but so will Lindor and Ramirez. They could leave room for Trout to win if he finishes strong, but OTOH voter fatigue might cost him. My gut tells me that Betts wins in no small part thanks to whatever gaudy win total the Red Sox finish the season with.

Betts likely going to get the “it’s his time” vote in addition to actually being a totally deserving candidate. Anyway there are no real Morneaus in this bunch.

degrom may also benefit from scherzer fatigue

scherzer will have him on wins and strikeouts and, probably most importantly, innings, but degrom (at this point) has the better era/fip/xfip -- largely because he's given up half as many homers, which seems important

Anyway there are no real Morneaus in this bunch.

To me, that's a key point. Even though arguments about the deserving winner each year will never go away, I think you're getting close to the point where you can't win anymore if you haven't had an MVP/Cy-caliber year sabermetrically. Except for Porcello and Dickey, I don't think there's been a winner in either category with a WAR under 6.0 since Morneau/Howard won.

Jacob deGrom is done after six shutout innings. His final line:

6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K, 100 pitches.

With the Mets leading, 5-0, deGrom is in line to win his first game since June 18. He lowered his career ERA in day games to 1.94, and his season mark to a league-best 1.77.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 8, 2018

soto seems to be on a clear path to winning NL ROY, but I'm not sure about AL. if ohtani is able to contribute pitching-wise down the stretch it's probably his to lose, and torres and andujar could end up splitting the rest of the votes anyway

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/handicapping-the-award-races-mvp/

Killing time before an afternoon at the dentist...

I like to look through game logs when you get a season as bizarre as deGrom's. I'm using plain-old unadjusted ERA here as a convenient shortcut.

Degrom

Cheap wins (non-quality-start wins) – one (he pitched very well but only 5.1 IP)
Tough losses (quality-start losses) – six (three on the cusp where he gave up 3 ER)
Wins (6) – 0.90
Losses (7) – 2.88
No-decisions (10) – 1.44

Scherzer

Cheap wins – two
Tough losses – three
Wins (15) – 2.18
Losses (5) – 2.90
No-decisions (4) – 1.98

So, to state the obvious…Scherzer’s W-L record is pretty representative of the way he’s pitched--if anything, it could be a little better, having pitched well in his losses and very well in his no-decisions.

deGrom has been woefully shortchanged. He’s been much better than Scherzer in his wins (many fewer games...which doesn't mean anything, that's just a function of all his no-decisions that should have been wins), about the same as Scherzer in his losses, and--the thing that’s killing him--brilliant in his no-decisions. If you look at all his no-decisions game-by-game, he should have won six of them easily (51 IP, four runs!).

#NLCyYoung in simplest form:
If Jacob deGrom pitched a CG allowing 11 runs, he and Max Scherzer would be even.

— Brian Kenny (@MrBrianKenny) August 8, 2018

I like the Fangraphs piece above, but I can't see pegging Martinez at 23%. His MVP chances would seem to rest almost completely on a Triple Crown--if he did it, he'd probably be close to a sure thing, and if he doesn't, he probably has close to zero chance as a DH, especially with so many other excellent candidates. So if Dan Szymborski puts him at 6% for a Triple Crown, I'd say his MVP chances shouldn't be much higher--maybe 7 or 8%. In Ortiz's farewell season, where he had a whole bunch of narrative working for him in the MVP vote, he finished sixth.

Don't think I've even mentioned Lindor yet (others have). I know Ramirez has a slight edge in WAR on his own team, but a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop who might end up with 40 HR/100 XBH, that'd be a sure thing most years.

as Jeff Sullivan pointed out today, the AL player who may put his team into the postseason is Matt Chapman.

Be forewarned: I'm going to advocate here for a few votes based primarily on an intangible.

I wouldn't mind seeing Nick Markakis graze the Top 10. I've got to believe that Freeman and Markakis have been a good steadying influence on Albies and Acuna. Freeman will make out fine and probably finish 5th or so. Markakis may end up with 5.0 WAR, so it's not like he'd be completely undeserving of a 10th-place finish based on performance alone. If he got a few extra points because of Atlanta's surprise success and a perception that Markakis has helped the younger guys, I'd be okay with that. Maybe William C can chime in.

I've got to believe that Freeman and Markakis have been a good steadying influence on Albies and Acuna.

My sense is that this has been the case, Ozzie especially. Markakis finishing top-10 would be totally cool by me, and I think he'll get bumped up a spot or two on a lot of ballots with "I didn't think he had THAT in him" sentiment.

if markakis were a national, joe simpson would be muttering darkly about PEDs

(i have no issues with him grazing the top 10 in the NL even without the intangibles -- he's having a great season. he'd be nowhere near it in the AL, however, which is weird)

The NL top 4 in bWAR are all pitchers: Scherzer, deGrom, Nola and Kyle Freeland of the Rockies.

Markakis is 10th among position players.

j. ramirez with another huge game tonight

soto seems to be on a clear path to winning NL ROY, but I'm not sure about AL.

I thought so too last week, but it might end up being pretty close after another big night from Acuna. If you look at the two of them side-by-side, their batting lines are almost interchangeable, with one significant exception: 30 extra walks for Soto. That's huge, and if the vote were today, there'd be no reason not to vote for Soto. But Acuna's still got six weeks, and he's closing fast.

I highly doubt Ohtani isn't getting AL RoY.

xpost

yeah, i guess it'll come down to who has the better stretch run. i do think, though, that soto's incredible selectivity (almost as many walks as strikeouts in a 19-year old season is crazy) suggests to me that he's better positioned to continue doing very well. acuna is a wonderful player in his own right but he has a much more typical swing and miss kind of approach, which i would guess makes him more susceptible to slumps.

it'll take a lot for a pitcher to win MVP this year even with the dearth of dominant candidates. it kinda looks like Baez vs Carpenter right now in terms of batters, with Scherzer mixing it up in there. obv Carpenter has the current momentum, Baez has cooled a bit and can't compete lately in terms of production. Scherzer would probably have to win 20 games to be the favorite, plus the Nationals would have to actually make the playoffs. Plus the other two would have to completely play themselves out of the running.

Trout is probably out thanks to his injuries, they've been minor but just enough to get Betts, Ramirez, and maybe even Martinez ahead of him at this point.

If the Red Sox get to 112+ wins I’m fairly certain Betts wins MVP.

I'd hate to see Sale lose the Cy Young to injury time. I think he's in the clear, but Kluber and Verlander are still hanging around--strong finishes by them and extended time for Sale could see him come up short.

Bauer and Snell, too...maybe Sale is insulated by all the others; either Sale gets your vote or one of the other guys gets it.

Bauer is done for the year and the Rays seem determined to keep Snell’s innings limited ROS. Don’t see either being a significant factor.

Shows how closely I keep up--didn't realize Bauer was out.

you weren't the only one confused by bauer's status

https://deadspin.com/mlb-network-falls-for-joke-report-that-trevor-bauer-is-1828439637

DeGrom continuing to make the NL Cy race a bit more interesting.

I think if Sale misses any significant time beyond this DL stint, maybe due to Boston wanting to play it safe with him, it’ll probably wind up being Verlander. Though if Kluber finishes like he did in his two previous Cy seasons, it’ll start to get competitive.

And if CK won a third I guess would start to bring up HOF chatter, even with his late start. There have been players who have won two Cys and are on the outside looking in w/r/t the HOF but everyone w/three or more has made it (or has PED issues.)

If Kluber ends up winning #3, his HOF case--interesting already--will become really interesting. I used to think Mike Scott wasn't a bad precedent for Kluber, but Kluber's way past him now (and also has a two-year jump on Scott).

Klubot made me look up another 2x Cy winner in Bret Saberhagen, who wasn’t merely good but he was phenomenally great. And he was probably the third best pitcher in MLB during the peak era of Gooden and BoSox Clemens. He put up around 40 bWAR thru his age 27 season and then injuries took him off the HOF track. Without injuries he’s a first-ballot guy.

Jacob deGrom is the fourth pitcher in National League history to strike out 200+ batters and post a sub-2.00 ERA through 25 starts. The others:

Sandy Koufax (1966)
Pedro Martinez (1997)
Clayton Kershaw (2014)

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 21, 2018

i know ERA is not the most reliable stat, but that's good company

DeGrom continuing to make the NL Cy race a bit more interesting.

I think if Sale misses any significant time beyond this DL stint, maybe due to Boston wanting to play it safe with him, it’ll probably wind up being Verlander. Though if Kluber finishes like he did in his two previous Cy seasons, it’ll start to get competitive.

And if CK won a third I guess would start to bring up HOF chatter, even with his late start. There have been players who have won two Cys and are on the outside looking in w/r/t the HOF but everyone w/three or more has made it (or has PED issues.)

― omar little, Sunday, August 19, 2018 3:09 PM (two days ago)

degrom gets my vote now I think. and to me sale is still the favorite for the AL.

HOF chatter started with kershaw a few years ago. he's a shoo-in

by CK he meant kluber

ah right

All three NL Cy contenders start today:

https://www.mlb.com/news/degrom-scherzer-nola-vie-for-cy-young/c-291491520

edge to nola

Definitely helped himself today--sounded like a great game, with some unexpected wildness from Scherzer.

bWAR thru yesterday:

Nola 8.9
Scherzer 8.0
deGrom 7.5

fWAR:

deGrom 6.9
Scherzer 6.0
Nola 5.4

also Goldschmidt leading NL batters in bWAR

that's a solid turnaround from his "slow start" (which was really only an extremely shitty May): his slash this year is .297/.402/.555, last season's was .297/.404./.563.

I like the idea (Posnanski's?) of combining both WARs. Then it gets really close: Nola and deGrom tied at 14.4, Scherzer at 14.0 (extra close if you then credit Scherzer with a slight "old-school" edge).

The NL Cy is close enough that it comes down the last five or six starts. Predicting a winner now is pointless.

But we’re going to do it anyways and I choose Scherzer!

bWAR thru yesterday:

Nola 8.9
Scherzer 8.0
deGrom 7.5

fWAR:

deGrom 6.9
Scherzer 6.0
Nola 5.4

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, August 24, 2018 7:31 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

very bizarre

Jeff: I know the basic difference of ERA vs FIP for Pitcher WAR between bbref and Fangraphs, but my question is why at the top of the leaderboards is bWAR higher than fWAR I.e. Nola 8.7 vs 5.4, Scherzer etc.

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: fWAR basically regresses every pitcher to a standard ball-in-play baseline. bWAR is unregressed in that way, making it easier to run a high number

i'll have you know i bathed last week, sir.

insane that Lorenzo Cain has never won one

Happy #ElectionDay! Here's a reminder from your friends at Baseball-Reference about how important it is to vote! pic.twitter.com/1owgyChl6e

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) November 6, 2018

:D

the 3 "finalists" for each award have all been announced

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2018/11/6/18069270/mets-jacob-degrom-finalist-cy-young-major-league-baseball-award-announcement

wait, why was I under the impression that trout had already been excluded from the top 3?

https://media.giphy.com/media/CIGNHqM9ME51e/giphy.gif

Acuna, Ohtani

One of those occasional instances (there was an NL MVP award a few years ago like this) where the two guys are almost in a statistical dead heat, but almost every small advantage tips in one direction--the "almost" here being Soto's higher OBP, obviously a big almost--and the vote ends up being not close at all.

Acuña was so much fun to watch this season.

acuña deserved the ROY but i think i'm more impressed with soto's season

Because of his age?

age, lack of experience (eight double-a games!), plate discipline, splits against LHP . . . finishing second* in the league in OBP as a teenager is incredible

also completely unexpected -- he wasn't really the nationals' top outfield prospect, and in almost any other organization he would never have been given a shot

snitker, melvin win the kiss of death award

Snitker! such a great name

(that's the Braves guy?)

as expected, degrom wins the NL Cy Young

While the inning discussion was the great debate in the AL Cy Young Award field this year, the NL race became a referendum on the present-day value (or lack thereof) of a win stat invented in the late 1800s. Even in our more analytically savvy age, the win still has its disciples, but, ultimately, deGrom's season was so utterly and unquestionably dominant that the win was rightly rendered irrelevant.

The BBWAA voters looked past deGrom's 10-9 record and focused instead on

if everyone just stopped talking about the Win, would it finally go away?
https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-cy-young-award-winners/c-300724470

Yelich and Betts win, Baez and Trout are the second-place finishers.

Now is a good time to reread some of those “did the Brewers give up too much for Yelich?” articles

most valuable voter: the guy who had deGrom 1st tonight

He should have been a close 2nd!

8 voters left him off their ballot entirely, which shows that the electorate doesn't even agree on what this motherfucking award is.

I wasn't quite as easygoing as #MikeTrout about it the year (1993) I came in #2 for MVP. But I wasn't in the hunt as often as him. Besides, it's not like he brought it on himself by teaching @MookieBetts about special vitamins the way I did with Barry Bonds (NL MVP in 1993).

— Lenny Dykstra (@LennyDykstra) November 16, 2018

actual footage of lenny dykstra

https://i.imgur.com/krh0Zh5.jpg

Actually actual footage of Lenny 1 month ago:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/former-all-star-outfielder-lenny-dykstra-indicted-on-drug-threat-charges/

Dykstra is facing three third-degree charges: possession of cocaine, possession of methamphetamine and making terroristic threats. Each stems from the May incident Dykstra had with an Uber driver, during which he allegedly held a gun to the driver's head.

If you get easily upset by stuff like this, do not read--you will have a coronary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/11/15/one-writer-who-voted-max-scherzer-ahead-jacob-degrom-cy-young-explains-his-ballot/?utm_term=.014f3201a619

*has coronary*

that's silly, but not as silly as people who are upset about degrom's win not being unanimous. scherzer had a pretty good season, and it's not like this guy had degrom fifth

When I opened the piece up, I honestly thought it would be somebody talking about FIP or Win Probability Added or wOBA or some small but meaningful-to-him sabermetric edge the writer had discerned in Scherzer's line. His rationale was the last thing I expected (as recently as two or three years ago, it would have been the first thing I expected, which I think is indicative of how fast things are changing).

If you step back and think about how good a season Scherzer had, I think that's a fair statement.

And Randy Jones! As a '70s guy, that had me smiling mightily. (Did he think to check in with Clay Kirby?)

Who, come to think of it, once lost 20, and in '71/'72 went 27-27 with a ERA under 3.00. Clay would have counselled that he vote for deGrom.

Maffei, 70, said

Scherzer and Nola were somewhat closer to deGrom than the tally indicates. Worrying about whether an award vote is unanimous... idgi. That said, if pitchers are supposed to be eligible for the MVP, the 8 guys who blanked deGrom clearly don't believe it.

And here's Jeff Sullivan who cast his AL vote for Verlander:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/i-voted-for-justin-verlander/

I always like looking at updated award-shares on Baseball Reference. Scherzer has moved into 8th-place on the Cy list; Verlander into 11th; and Kluber into 15th. (Kershaw was shut out for the first time since 2010.) Trout is 11th on the MVP list--5.06 shares, which at least is a lot more representative than his two awards.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml

James had a tweet that 97 MVPs are in the HOF, 59 are not, 63%. But I assume the not-in total includes all active winners, some of whom will move into the other column. Of the last 23 winners starting in 2005--Pujols' first MVP; all winners before that are retired--I'd estimate that 12-15 will end up in the HOF, making the ratio more like 110-46, or 70%.

I liked the Jeff Sullivan piece above--he's basically trying to figure out the same thing I was, how Snell gave up more baserunners than Verlander but fewer runs. He's doing it at a microscopic level--I can't do that--whereas I landed on HR and GIDP (I don't think he mentions either). And he's trying to figure out "To what extent was Snell responsible for his results?" He seems to conclude that there's a lot of luck and good defense involved, while also conceding that "I know pitchers sometimes try to pitch to their ballparks or defenses or whatnot."

I look at Snell's 15-3 advantage in GIDP (in fewer innings) and think, well, give four of the extra double-plays to his defense, four of them to luck/shifting, and the other four to Snell (pitchers do try to induce ground balls, right?). Pure guesswork, I know, but Sullivan admits that there's conjecture in what he does, too: "It’s very possible, if not probable, that’s not giving Snell enough credit. Maybe he was in some way able to pitch to his defenders."

I don't think there's a right answer. His evidence is interesting, but it's so granular, I think you're starting to drift away from the reality of all those extra runs. I liked this reader comment: "Some day, people will be using nothing but spin rate and pitch location to vote for Cy Young. Shortly thereafter, the award will be retired."

Reader commenter OTM.

Some people tried to make a case for Rizzo based on WPA during the year that Harper won MVP. Nobody claimed that Rizzo had some magical clutch hitting ability, or that it was a repeatable skill, but the bottom line is that those hits did help his team win games, which obviously counts for something. If they'd been closer in WAR it might have made an impact on the voting, like with Snell and Verlander.

khris davis beats out j.d. martinez for the edgar martinez designated hitter of the year award

which is pretty absurd

Huh? I'm pretty easy-going when it comes to award voting--I can at least almost always see the outline of the argument as to why some guy did or didn't win, even if I don't agree. But that makes zero sense. You're talking about .247/.326/.549 vs. .330/.402/.629., 2.9 WAR vs. 6.4. Not even close, no matter what metrics you use.

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Martinez appeared in 32 games as a RF, another 25 games in LF, 93 as DH.
Davis appeared in 11 games as a LF, 139 as DH.

i guess they just saw Davis as more of a pure DH? beats me

apparently voters are instructed to take only stats as a DH into account; martinez hit .297/.373/.597 with 27 HR and 79 RBI in 93 games/400 PA as a DH while davis did essentially everything as a DH

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

i mean...i'd still take that production over davis but ok

David Price and Jonny Venters have been named winners of the 2018 American League and National League Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 20, 2018

Wow, I didn't know Venters' story.

Khris Davis's magic .247 hat trick carried the day

the edgar martinez award committee is corrupt

Is this actually comprised of former DHs? What did Jeff Burroughs know, and when did he know it?