vladimir guerrero.

Just missed an autograph; he opted for the young women standing beside me instead of the Unabomber-looking old guy. (Plus, she had an expensive jersey, I had a card.)

He went 1-3 with a double, a walk, and a baserunning error (understandable--the opposing shortstop had just made a fantastic play). I hope he can stay interested for the rest of the year; he looked a little bored fielding his position, or maybe he was just daydreaming about millions. (Will they bring him up as a September call-up or just start fresh next year?)

http://phildellio.tripod.com/vlad.jpg

💪 Vlad Jr. 💪@MLB's No. 1 overall prospect is 3-for-3 with a 2-run homer tonight, his 1st since joining the @BuffaloBisons. The #BlueJays phenom is hitting .476 in 8 games since being promoted on July 31. Here's how @BlueJays prospects are faring: https://t.co/n4rt0Iwb1H pic.twitter.com/x5Fi6eWYax

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 9, 2018

remembering what happened with Travis Snider and Rios, I'm trying not to let my expectations get too crazy with this kid.

neither of those guys ever hit like this, let alone as a teenager (and rios had a pretty solid big league career!)

i am expecting miguel cabrera-type things tbh

my only concern is that he seems like a rather burly young man, which could end up limiting him to first base and/or be an injury factor

i mean okay, it's absurd to compare a 19yo to a triple-crown winner, but he's not gonna be brandon wood either

Agree--Vlad's not just promising, he's been dominating two or three different levels this year. I have no historical memory here, so I think I'll send a question out to everyone's favourite aging lunatic sabermetrician, see if he can recall any precedents.

dominating two or three different levels this year

Almost the whole year in double A and 22 ABs in AAA so far.

Oh I'm sorry clem you were probably talking about two or three different aspects of the game. My bad!

Actually I did mean that he'd played at four different levels this season, but you're right, 90% of his AB were in double-A.

Unrelated to baseball:
ASK TIM ELLISON

Albert, I don't think I ever knew why Night Soil Man broke up. I really only knew Mark and mostly knew him after NSM. I did see NSM at least once, though!

And Pulltoys! Opening for fIREHOSE.

(That band name came from a Minutemen song. At least I always assumed that...)

2-4 with another HR tonight.

i am expecting miguel cabrera-type things tbh

feel like this is the 'chief keef is a musician on a par with mozart' post that i've been building up to all these years

The two Vlads and a boxer.

http://www.instagram.com/p/BmTlNvjh7Qo/?taken-by=vladdyjr27

(And a third HR tonight.)

also

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC6NjSL3TNM

Another HR--fourth game in a row, one short of a team record. Suddenly I know about Buffalo Bison team records.

Something you might hear a lot about in the next couple of weeks: no one's hit .400 for a full professional season since 1961.

http://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-makes-run-at-400-season/c-290192234

Guerrero's sitting at .397 right now. The Bisons' season ends Sept. 3, after which he presumably returns to New Hampshire for the playoffs (their season also ends Sept. 3). The Jays, probably not.

Bit sobering, though: Aaron Pointer? (Great story--brother of the Pointer Sisters!) Here's his major-league page:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pointaa01.shtml

Gary Redus, also mentioned in the piece, had a decent career, but I think we're hoping for a little more from Vlad.

Have to put the 's' on for MLB links:

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-makes-run-at-400-season/c-290192234

love gary redus, and his '78 season was magnificent (look at all the walks and stolen bases!), but he was a 21-year-old playing in an extremely friendly offensive environment against the lowest class of minor leaguers

steamer projects vlad jr as a top-20 hitter right now, before he's even been called up.
https://i.imgur.com/D6aNjc7.png?1
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-vlad-jr-hit-400/

man that’s crazy

Gonna be a real bummer when he hits .265 with a low .800s OPS next season.

I have faith Vlad Jr will be great, I was there when he hit that home run at the big Owe, but baseball is baseball and I've learned to tamper my expectations.

i notice Eloy Jimenez on that list as well.

vlad jr. so far in the arizona fall league:

8-for-11 (.727), 4 2B, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

it's an offensive league and these are not top-flight pitchers, but jeez

i should go watch him play

No home runs?!?!

i know! trade him for sonny gray

now hitting .467 and has fanned once in 49 AB

he is so good

sounds to me like he needs to wait until about 3 and a half weeks into the 2019 regular season before he's ready for the big leagues

steamer projections for 2019 are out: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

vlad jr. is projected for 5.1 fWAR. 6th in MLB, sandwiched between Kris Bryant and Jose Ramirez.

O_O

then again, it also projects him for positive defensive value - isn't defense supposed to be vlad's weakness, if anything? still, i have to wonder if there's ever been a higher steamer projection for a player who has yet to make their debut.

projected to lead the league in batting average

canonlygetsohard.jpg

Are we in for twenty years of Thermo talking about his junk while Vlad Jr. leads the Jays to seven WS titles?

I am ready

is vlad jr. the best prospect ever?

spoiler: no -- that would probably be a-rod or griffey jr -- but he might be the best ~hitting~ prospect ever

so ready

Will be starting tomorrow. (Didn't get into today's game, first of the spring; Bichette was 1-2.)

the only reason a "smart" team would engage in this active disrespect is if they think they'll have destroyed free agency by the time they lose Guerrero's rights https://t.co/gKuWnom7g5

— Nathan Bernhardt (@jonbernhardt) February 27, 2019

The Jays have successfully convinced their fans that they're a small market team in a metropolis of six million people. Convincing the same fans that Vlad Jr isn't ready to play in the majors shouldn't be too difficult.

I don’t think anyone here buys either of those.

Supposedly Jays fans are all over Twitter screaming bloody murder about what Atkins said, but I asked someone at work today if he thought Guerrero took it personally or if he understood what was going on, and he thought the latter. Atkins could've been a little more artful, I suppose, but it's such an obvious smokescreen (which, admittedly, I wouldn't have understood myself a couple of years ago--I've never been that interested in the business side of the game). Would anyone really rather have a few extra weeks of Guerrero this year or a whole extra year of him down the road?

I'd rather cultivate a good relationship with my best player so maybe he'll re-sign

Does Toronto even want to sell tickets? C'mon...at this point you play him to get people in the seats.

F-ing baseball is so stupid, this type bs why they have this guy Mike Trout who is by the numbers the greatest hitter since Ted Williams or near Babe Ruth and really not many people even know who he is.

it's going to be a whole three weeks of waiting to see him, give or take? i'm sure they'll sell tickets just fine when they call him up, and then it will creep back down again because the team still isn't very good.

but also, how many batting titles has trout won? how many times leading the league in HRs? he has the curse of being very very good in all facets of the game, leading to an incredible overall value, while not being incredible in any single area that wow people who don't follow baseball closely

xp

honestly I find it hard to care too much about these situations, it's a few weeks