ha good catch
― k3vin k., Thursday, 26 July 2018 04:18 (five years ago) link
Got curious so searched for baseball's best inning-eaters and came across these numbers on a fantasy baseball site.
Starters throwing a heavyweight innings workload over a season are a declining breed. The number of starters pitching at least 180 innings has dropped year-on-year.
2014: 66 starters 2015: 56 starters 2016: 45 starters 2017: 35 starters
The trend is dramatic, and although it is unlikely to fall by another 10 this season, it is also unlikely to increase. So in 2018, there are only likely to be 30-35 heavyweight starters.
Looking up the top innings pitched numbers in MLB, there is a decent chance that the number might not hit 30 starters throwing 180 innings.
― earlnash, Friday, 27 July 2018 00:37 (five years ago) link
I created this tool that shows frequency of trade partnershttps://t.co/ncInXyCYKa pic.twitter.com/fPHGMWSlIc— Dan Hirsch (@DanHirsch) July 28, 2018
This was kind of interesting.
― earlnash, Sunday, 29 July 2018 21:42 (five years ago) link
From Day 1 of Saberseminar... BP has a new stat for you!
The highlight of the morning, however, did not focus as much on pitching. Instead it was a presentation by Jonathon Judge on a companion stat to DERA, Deserved Runs Created. DRC should appear on Baseball Prospectus in the next couple of weeks. And, it promises to be one of the best comprehensive hitting stats for overall offensive output. In particular, the DRC+ version (adjusted for parks) looks to be particularly useful. Judge was also quick to back up the data by showing the reliability of the stat for players switching teams as compared with alternative measures such as wOBA or wRC+.
https://thesportspost.com/mlb-saberseminar-boston-diversity-all/
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 6 August 2018 14:46 (five years ago) link
further
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fantasy-relevant-information-from-saber-seminar/
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 06:35 (five years ago) link
I check the WAR leaderboard on Baseball Reference every two or three days, mostly with an eye towards the awards. Something I will never understand (i.e., not the first time I've encountered this): Scherzer's dropped by 0.3 from a couple of days ago without making a start.
― clemenza, Thursday, 23 August 2018 15:44 (five years ago) link
Is it possible that it's a case of the R in WAR getting better?
― challops trap house (Will M.), Thursday, 23 August 2018 15:50 (five years ago) link
I think I mentioned that as a possible explanation when I brought this up a few years ago. But the replacement level changing by a third of a win in a couple of days seems like a pretty wild swing.
― clemenza, Thursday, 23 August 2018 15:54 (five years ago) link
Wonder if the replacement level calculation gets updated every so often rather than changing automatically.
― timellison, Friday, 24 August 2018 01:06 (five years ago) link
could be other things getting updated, too, like park factors? i'm not sure. if the replacement level for calculation for pitchers was updated, wouldn't that affect all pitchers WAR?
― Karl Malone, Friday, 24 August 2018 01:11 (five years ago) link
Maybe on days when you're not playing, they factor in intangibles. Were you offering your teammates moral support from the bench, or did you spend the game in the clubhouse getting a massage? Were you out there for yesterday's bench-clearing brawl? Did you make yourself available for autographs before the game, or did you tell some seven-year old to take a hike?
― clemenza, Friday, 24 August 2018 01:34 (five years ago) link
4 bonus points for playing the game the way it was meant to be played
― Karl Malone, Friday, 24 August 2018 02:13 (five years ago) link
And that game in question was Euchre by clubhouse rules.
― earlnash, Friday, 24 August 2018 03:16 (five years ago) link
Baseball Statisticians Unveil New Analytics Model Measuring Precise Amount Of Joy They Suck From The Game https://t.co/4ljqgrBotM pic.twitter.com/lFpw3jOchd— Onion Sports Network (@OnionSports) August 24, 2018
― mookieproof, Friday, 24 August 2018 16:59 (five years ago) link
guest Onion editor Goose Gossage
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 August 2018 17:16 (five years ago) link
https://sabrstatanalysis.blog/2018/09/11/what-a-drag-it-is-getting-old
good old players are disappearing . . . since roughly around the time that steroid testing really kicked in
and yet further CBA ramifications
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 11 September 2018 20:01 (five years ago) link
useful link for the future: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/re288-run-expectancy-by-the-24-base-out-states-x-12-plate-count-states-recu
the first image is the good old run expectancy chart, broken out by pitch counts:
https://i.imgur.com/sfBkCBd.png
the second is the same data presented in a different way, relative to the 0-0 count. it took me a second to figure out wtf was going on, but you start with the number of outs and the position of the runners on base. then move to the 0-0 column. from there, it tells you how every subsequent pitch to that batter affects the run expectancy.
https://i.imgur.com/riTvIO0.png
― Karl Malone, Monday, 3 December 2018 03:01 (five years ago) link
Quite interesting:
http://www.billjamesonline.com/jack_kralick/
Was Jack Kralick the best pitcher in the American League in 1961? WAR says yes (bWAR, anyway), James says "Are you kidding?"
― clemenza, Friday, 4 January 2019 16:23 (five years ago) link
Baseball Prospectus followers: did they ever publish the detailed mechanics/formulae/algorithms of DRC+, like they said they'd do back in December? Couldn't immediately find it in the archive, and although I'm not a subscriber, it seems that is not the reason, as the titles of other subscriber-only articles do show up.
― anatol_merklich, Wednesday, 6 February 2019 20:58 (five years ago) link
There was a good reddit thread where JJudge mentioned some more info was coming...
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 6 February 2019 21:09 (five years ago) link
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/a747wg/hello_im_jonathan_judge_bachlaw_senior_metrics/
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 6 February 2019 21:10 (five years ago) link
given the monumental wealth of statistical information available now, and advances in AI, surely 95+% of managerial decisions could be outsourced to a real-time computer? and if this is true, wouldn't it be borderline negligent not to?
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 16 February 2019 11:09 (five years ago) link
some of them have been outsourced, to the degree that the field manager is expected to share the org's philosophy more specifically than ever.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 16 February 2019 14:23 (five years ago) link
Sabrites have said for awhile that allocation of playing time is more crucial than in-game tactics, and the front office has more to say about that too.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 16 February 2019 14:27 (five years ago) link
According to a friend who works for a team, most teams have their own proprietary algorithms and analytics departments. He likens SABR/FanGraphs intel to an open source resource like wikipedia.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 16 February 2019 18:06 (five years ago) link
nothing new here but https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/sports/sean-forman-sports-reference.html
― mookieproof, Saturday, 16 February 2019 21:47 (five years ago) link
this is, hands down, my favorite statcast discovery so fari looked at every two-pitch sequence (within PA but not across) in 2018 to see which combination is best at inducing swinging strikesthe result: throw the same exact pitch right before it! pic.twitter.com/8KZ8aaiGMM— Alex Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) February 21, 2019
― mookieproof, Thursday, 21 February 2019 19:32 (five years ago) link
i'd also be curious to see the analysis of the bad results of the throwing the same exact pitch twice. in other words, it leads to higher swinging strikes more often than other combinations, but maybe it also leads to a higher HR% or harder contact, etc - either it completely fools people or they're primed to wail on it. dunno, just guessing
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 21 February 2019 19:34 (five years ago) link
yeah i can see going changeup-changeup being a high risk/high reward scenario
― mookieproof, Thursday, 21 February 2019 19:39 (five years ago) link
good point, karl
― k3vin k., Thursday, 21 February 2019 20:48 (five years ago) link
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/affinity-pitchersAndHitters-byHittingProfile
― mookieproof, Thursday, 7 March 2019 16:47 (five years ago) link
explain that?
― k3vin k., Thursday, 7 March 2019 17:21 (five years ago) link
Enjoyed this:
Also wrote @ringer about how the rise of the opener is changing WAR, whether working as an opener or a bulk guy could affect a pitcher's earnings, and why unlike a lot of traditional stats, WAR never stays the same.https://t.co/cAswNEVH6c— Ben Lindbergh (@BenLindbergh) March 25, 2019
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 02:02 (five years ago) link
Pre-move excavation...Found this list of the greatest hitters ever I drew up in 1976 or 1977, a couple of years after I bought my first Big Mac (and around the time I owned my first calculator). The very elegant formula I used is at the top. Keep in mind that a) I would have been 14 or 15, and b) I was still at least five years away from any awareness of Bill James or Thomas Boswell or anyone.
http://phildellio.tripod.com/hitters.jpg
The bad: 1) The randomness of the formula. There's an attempt to weigh the different elements (10 x HR vs. 1 x SB), but the final number (Ted Williams - 65.12) connects to nothing.
2) Strikeouts four times as important as walks! So Joe Sewell comes out ahead of Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. Um...I have no words of defense.
3) Runs and RBI front and center.
3) I'm not even sure the formula works. I remember finding this a couple of decades ago, and when I tried to calculate a couple of hitters, their overall rating didn't match what was on the paper. I suspect I calculated parts of the formula in some order that didn't follow correct order of operations.
The good: 1) An awareness that batting average and HR weren't everything.
2) Did I mention I was 14 or 15?
I'm very impressed with the printing in view of my illegible scrawl nowadays.
― clemenza, Saturday, 2 November 2019 19:26 (four years ago) link
I don't know who the mystery player is at 51.05...
― clemenza, Saturday, 2 November 2019 19:27 (four years ago) link
I suspect I calculated parts of the formula in some order that didn't follow correct order of operations.
You did! You just went left to right when there is a multiplication in the middle.
― timellison, Saturday, 2 November 2019 21:48 (four years ago) link
I don’t see strikeouts in the formula! Also, it penalizes walks I guess? Dammit 13 year old Clemens’s, wtf??jk of course. This was a noble effort. esp knowing that you had to hand calculate everything. Weren’t you afraid you missed some players? (Unless...you didn’t do every player of all time...did you?)
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Saturday, 2 November 2019 23:55 (four years ago) link
Sorry, my phone autocorrected you to the rocket
Or wait, it’s adding for walks, and then subtracting 250
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Saturday, 2 November 2019 23:56 (four years ago) link
That's supposed to be 2 x SO - 1/2 x BB; strikeouts looks like 50. An ILX'or I'm Facebook friends with figured out how to make the numbers work out...Mike Trout comes in at 43-something, just below Mantle. The guy just strikes out too damn often, and I'm surprised the Angels don't cut him loose.
― clemenza, Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:20 (four years ago) link
give me ed delahanty over any of these bozos
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:24 (four years ago) link
Weren’t you afraid you missed some players?
I also found pages of the final totals (not sure what to call it...CI, the Clemenza Index) for an alphabetized list of anybody who had a good career. I was working from the '74 edition of the Mac, not the first '69 edition; Aaron was still active, so I'm not sure what my cut-off date was (more likely, I had a minimum AB requirement).
Ed definitely makes the all-drinking team, from what I remember.
― clemenza, Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:25 (four years ago) link
in 1895, delahanty scored 149 runs in 116 games. he hit a healthy .404 but came in second in the batting race behind jesse burkett at .409
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:26 (four years ago) link
it's a really cool list - awesome that you kept it!
despite my misreading of the equation, it is also very very neatly printed.
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:27 (four years ago) link
Would have generated a few posts on the ILB police blotter thread:
"Delahanty died when he was swept over Niagara Falls in early July 1903. He was apparently kicked off a train by the train's conductor for being drunk and disorderly. The conductor said Delahanty was brandishing a straight razor and threatening passengers after he consumed five whiskies. After being kicked off the train, Delahanty started his way across the International Railway Bridge connecting Buffalo, New York with Fort Erie (near Niagara Falls) and fell or jumped off the bridge (some accounts say Ed was yelling about death that night). Whether "Big Ed" died from his plunge over the Falls or drowned on the way to the Falls is uncertain. His body was found at the bottom of Niagara Falls two weeks after his death."
― clemenza, Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:32 (four years ago) link
don't ask why i felt compelled to make this, but might as well share. this is the top 5 wRC+ for each year of the 1950's. i wanted to see which player seasons were way ahead of their peers, relatively. williams in '54 and williams and mantle in '57 both stand out
https://i.imgur.com/5tSykHj.png
also, i have to share this as well because it is crazy how the charts in Excel wannabe clone Numbers are hard to customize and offers all the wrong options...unless you go into 3D graph mode, in which case everything is possible
https://i.imgur.com/Sr0KzWP.png
― But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 23 January 2020 01:10 (four years ago) link
Surprised there's such a difference between Mantle's '56 and '57--his bWAR is the same for the two seasons. I know it's relative to the league, but still.
― clemenza, Thursday, 23 January 2020 15:15 (four years ago) link
heh, the chart i made is confusing as all hell. it's so confusing even i can't figure out wtf is going on!
but basically, the top line represents the first place finisher in wRC+ for the year. it happens to be williams in both '54 and '57, which makes it look like the entire top line is williams. but in '55, for example, the first place wRC+ was mantle, at 179.
...i know, that's really confusing! i only did it that way because i wanted to see the discrepancy between the top 5 finishers each year, to look for outliers.
mantle's '56 was actually very close to '57, by wRC+. it was 202 in 1956 (twice as good as the average hitter!!), which was first place in the league, and 217 in 1957, second only to williams.
― But guess what? Nobody gives a toot!😂 (Karl Malone), Thursday, 23 January 2020 16:36 (four years ago) link
*fingers crossed behind back*
i will never make another ill-advised graph again
C'mon, the 3D one even casts a shadow--worth the price of admission alone.
― clemenza, Thursday, 23 January 2020 21:28 (four years ago) link