rolling sabermetrics and statistics thread

wRC+, OBP, ISO

bWAR, fWAR, GWAR

babip is also not a weighted metric

ha good catch

Got curious so searched for baseball's best inning-eaters and came across these numbers on a fantasy baseball site.

Starters throwing a heavyweight innings workload over a season are a declining breed. The number of starters pitching at least 180 innings has dropped year-on-year.

2014: 66 starters
2015: 56 starters
2016: 45 starters
2017: 35 starters

The trend is dramatic, and although it is unlikely to fall by another 10 this season, it is also unlikely to increase. So in 2018, there are only likely to be 30-35 heavyweight starters.

Looking up the top innings pitched numbers in MLB, there is a decent chance that the number might not hit 30 starters throwing 180 innings.

I created this tool that shows frequency of trade partnershttps://t.co/ncInXyCYKa pic.twitter.com/fPHGMWSlIc

— Dan Hirsch (@DanHirsch) July 28, 2018

This was kind of interesting.

From Day 1 of Saberseminar... BP has a new stat for you!

The highlight of the morning, however, did not focus as much on pitching. Instead it was a presentation by Jonathon Judge on a companion stat to DERA, Deserved Runs Created. DRC should appear on Baseball Prospectus in the next couple of weeks. And, it promises to be one of the best comprehensive hitting stats for overall offensive output. In particular, the DRC+ version (adjusted for parks) looks to be particularly useful. Judge was also quick to back up the data by showing the reliability of the stat for players switching teams as compared with alternative measures such as wOBA or wRC+.

https://thesportspost.com/mlb-saberseminar-boston-diversity-all/

further

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fantasy-relevant-information-from-saber-seminar/

I check the WAR leaderboard on Baseball Reference every two or three days, mostly with an eye towards the awards. Something I will never understand (i.e., not the first time I've encountered this): Scherzer's dropped by 0.3 from a couple of days ago without making a start.

Is it possible that it's a case of the R in WAR getting better?

I think I mentioned that as a possible explanation when I brought this up a few years ago. But the replacement level changing by a third of a win in a couple of days seems like a pretty wild swing.

Wonder if the replacement level calculation gets updated every so often rather than changing automatically.

could be other things getting updated, too, like park factors? i'm not sure. if the replacement level for calculation for pitchers was updated, wouldn't that affect all pitchers WAR?

Maybe on days when you're not playing, they factor in intangibles. Were you offering your teammates moral support from the bench, or did you spend the game in the clubhouse getting a massage? Were you out there for yesterday's bench-clearing brawl? Did you make yourself available for autographs before the game, or did you tell some seven-year old to take a hike?

4 bonus points for playing the game the way it was meant to be played

And that game in question was Euchre by clubhouse rules.

Baseball Statisticians Unveil New Analytics Model Measuring Precise Amount Of Joy They Suck From The Game https://t.co/4ljqgrBotM pic.twitter.com/lFpw3jOchd

— Onion Sports Network (@OnionSports) August 24, 2018

guest Onion editor Goose Gossage

https://sabrstatanalysis.blog/2018/09/11/what-a-drag-it-is-getting-old

good old players are disappearing . . . since roughly around the time that steroid testing really kicked in

and yet further CBA ramifications

useful link for the future: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/re288-run-expectancy-by-the-24-base-out-states-x-12-plate-count-states-recu

the first image is the good old run expectancy chart, broken out by pitch counts:

https://i.imgur.com/sfBkCBd.png

the second is the same data presented in a different way, relative to the 0-0 count. it took me a second to figure out wtf was going on, but you start with the number of outs and the position of the runners on base. then move to the 0-0 column. from there, it tells you how every subsequent pitch to that batter affects the run expectancy.

https://i.imgur.com/riTvIO0.png

Quite interesting:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/jack_kralick/

Was Jack Kralick the best pitcher in the American League in 1961? WAR says yes (bWAR, anyway), James says "Are you kidding?"

Baseball Prospectus followers: did they ever publish the detailed mechanics/formulae/algorithms of DRC+, like they said they'd do back in December? Couldn't immediately find it in the archive, and although I'm not a subscriber, it seems that is not the reason, as the titles of other subscriber-only articles do show up.

There was a good reddit thread where JJudge mentioned some more info was coming...

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/a747wg/hello_im_jonathan_judge_bachlaw_senior_metrics/

given the monumental wealth of statistical information available now, and advances in AI, surely 95+% of managerial decisions could be outsourced to a real-time computer? and if this is true, wouldn't it be borderline negligent not to?

some of them have been outsourced, to the degree that the field manager is expected to share the org's philosophy more specifically than ever.

Sabrites have said for awhile that allocation of playing time is more crucial than in-game tactics, and the front office has more to say about that too.

According to a friend who works for a team, most teams have their own proprietary algorithms and analytics departments. He likens SABR/FanGraphs intel to an open source resource like wikipedia.

nothing new here but https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/sports/sean-forman-sports-reference.html

this is, hands down, my favorite statcast discovery so far

i looked at every two-pitch sequence (within PA but not across) in 2018 to see which combination is best at inducing swinging strikes

the result: throw the same exact pitch right before it! pic.twitter.com/8KZ8aaiGMM

— Alex Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) February 21, 2019

i'd also be curious to see the analysis of the bad results of the throwing the same exact pitch twice. in other words, it leads to higher swinging strikes more often than other combinations, but maybe it also leads to a higher HR% or harder contact, etc - either it completely fools people or they're primed to wail on it. dunno, just guessing

yeah i can see going changeup-changeup being a high risk/high reward scenario

good point, karl

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/affinity-pitchersAndHitters-byHittingProfile

explain that?

Enjoyed this:

Also wrote @ringer about how the rise of the opener is changing WAR, whether working as an opener or a bulk guy could affect a pitcher's earnings, and why unlike a lot of traditional stats, WAR never stays the same.https://t.co/cAswNEVH6c

— Ben Lindbergh (@BenLindbergh) March 25, 2019

Pre-move excavation...Found this list of the greatest hitters ever I drew up in 1976 or 1977, a couple of years after I bought my first Big Mac (and around the time I owned my first calculator). The very elegant formula I used is at the top. Keep in mind that a) I would have been 14 or 15, and b) I was still at least five years away from any awareness of Bill James or Thomas Boswell or anyone.

http://phildellio.tripod.com/hitters.jpg

The bad: 1) The randomness of the formula. There's an attempt to weigh the different elements (10 x HR vs. 1 x SB), but the final number (Ted Williams - 65.12) connects to nothing.

2) Strikeouts four times as important as walks! So Joe Sewell comes out ahead of Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. Um...I have no words of defense.

3) Runs and RBI front and center.

3) I'm not even sure the formula works. I remember finding this a couple of decades ago, and when I tried to calculate a couple of hitters, their overall rating didn't match what was on the paper. I suspect I calculated parts of the formula in some order that didn't follow correct order of operations.

The good: 1) An awareness that batting average and HR weren't everything.

2) Did I mention I was 14 or 15?

I'm very impressed with the printing in view of my illegible scrawl nowadays.

I don't know who the mystery player is at 51.05...

I suspect I calculated parts of the formula in some order that didn't follow correct order of operations.

You did! You just went left to right when there is a multiplication in the middle.

I don’t see strikeouts in the formula! Also, it penalizes walks I guess? Dammit 13 year old Clemens’s, wtf??

jk of course. This was a noble effort. esp knowing that you had to hand calculate everything. Weren’t you afraid you missed some players? (Unless...you didn’t do every player of all time...did you?)

Sorry, my phone autocorrected you to the rocket

Or wait, it’s adding for walks, and then subtracting 250

That's supposed to be 2 x SO - 1/2 x BB; strikeouts looks like 50. An ILX'or I'm Facebook friends with figured out how to make the numbers work out...Mike Trout comes in at 43-something, just below Mantle. The guy just strikes out too damn often, and I'm surprised the Angels don't cut him loose.

give me ed delahanty over any of these bozos

Weren’t you afraid you missed some players?

I also found pages of the final totals (not sure what to call it...CI, the Clemenza Index) for an alphabetized list of anybody who had a good career. I was working from the '74 edition of the Mac, not the first '69 edition; Aaron was still active, so I'm not sure what my cut-off date was (more likely, I had a minimum AB requirement).

Ed definitely makes the all-drinking team, from what I remember.

in 1895, delahanty scored 149 runs in 116 games. he hit a healthy .404 but came in second in the batting race behind jesse burkett at .409

it's a really cool list - awesome that you kept it!

despite my misreading of the equation, it is also very very neatly printed.

Would have generated a few posts on the ILB police blotter thread:

"Delahanty died when he was swept over Niagara Falls in early July 1903. He was apparently kicked off a train by the train's conductor for being drunk and disorderly. The conductor said Delahanty was brandishing a straight razor and threatening passengers after he consumed five whiskies. After being kicked off the train, Delahanty started his way across the International Railway Bridge connecting Buffalo, New York with Fort Erie (near Niagara Falls) and fell or jumped off the bridge (some accounts say Ed was yelling about death that night). Whether "Big Ed" died from his plunge over the Falls or drowned on the way to the Falls is uncertain. His body was found at the bottom of Niagara Falls two weeks after his death."

don't ask why i felt compelled to make this, but might as well share. this is the top 5 wRC+ for each year of the 1950's. i wanted to see which player seasons were way ahead of their peers, relatively. williams in '54 and williams and mantle in '57 both stand out

https://i.imgur.com/5tSykHj.png

also, i have to share this as well because it is crazy how the charts in Excel wannabe clone Numbers are hard to customize and offers all the wrong options...unless you go into 3D graph mode, in which case everything is possible

https://i.imgur.com/Sr0KzWP.png

Surprised there's such a difference between Mantle's '56 and '57--his bWAR is the same for the two seasons. I know it's relative to the league, but still.