https://imgur.com/a/Z04LVtf
― francisF, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:40 (five years ago) link
god, i hope it becomes a thing.
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:47 (five years ago) link
*sigh*https://image.ibb.co/byvn8o/Screen_Shot_2018_07_24_at_9_22_55_PM.png
― francisF, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:48 (five years ago) link
It was kinda bizarre listening to broadcasters extol the virtues of advanced stats for a half-inning; it was awesome, i don't know if it's a regular thing anyone does
― francisF, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:54 (five years ago) link
BABIP is kind of a weird one to use
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:55 (five years ago) link
honestly if they could only pick 3, i'd take BB%, K%, and OPS. it's usually possible to get a decent idea of what kind of batter someone is by those measures alone
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 04:10 (five years ago) link
wRC+, OBP, ISO
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 July 2018 04:15 (five years ago) link
bWAR, fWAR, GWAR
― challops trap house (Will M.), Wednesday, 25 July 2018 18:32 (five years ago) link
babip is also not a weighted metric
― ant banks and wasp (voodoo chili), Thursday, 26 July 2018 01:51 (five years ago) link
ha good catch
― k3vin k., Thursday, 26 July 2018 04:18 (five years ago) link
Got curious so searched for baseball's best inning-eaters and came across these numbers on a fantasy baseball site.
Starters throwing a heavyweight innings workload over a season are a declining breed. The number of starters pitching at least 180 innings has dropped year-on-year.
2014: 66 starters 2015: 56 starters 2016: 45 starters 2017: 35 starters
The trend is dramatic, and although it is unlikely to fall by another 10 this season, it is also unlikely to increase. So in 2018, there are only likely to be 30-35 heavyweight starters.
Looking up the top innings pitched numbers in MLB, there is a decent chance that the number might not hit 30 starters throwing 180 innings.
― earlnash, Friday, 27 July 2018 00:37 (five years ago) link
I created this tool that shows frequency of trade partnershttps://t.co/ncInXyCYKa pic.twitter.com/fPHGMWSlIc— Dan Hirsch (@DanHirsch) July 28, 2018
This was kind of interesting.
― earlnash, Sunday, 29 July 2018 21:42 (five years ago) link
From Day 1 of Saberseminar... BP has a new stat for you!
The highlight of the morning, however, did not focus as much on pitching. Instead it was a presentation by Jonathon Judge on a companion stat to DERA, Deserved Runs Created. DRC should appear on Baseball Prospectus in the next couple of weeks. And, it promises to be one of the best comprehensive hitting stats for overall offensive output. In particular, the DRC+ version (adjusted for parks) looks to be particularly useful. Judge was also quick to back up the data by showing the reliability of the stat for players switching teams as compared with alternative measures such as wOBA or wRC+.
https://thesportspost.com/mlb-saberseminar-boston-diversity-all/
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 6 August 2018 14:46 (five years ago) link
further
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fantasy-relevant-information-from-saber-seminar/
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 06:35 (five years ago) link
I check the WAR leaderboard on Baseball Reference every two or three days, mostly with an eye towards the awards. Something I will never understand (i.e., not the first time I've encountered this): Scherzer's dropped by 0.3 from a couple of days ago without making a start.
― clemenza, Thursday, 23 August 2018 15:44 (five years ago) link
Is it possible that it's a case of the R in WAR getting better?
― challops trap house (Will M.), Thursday, 23 August 2018 15:50 (five years ago) link
I think I mentioned that as a possible explanation when I brought this up a few years ago. But the replacement level changing by a third of a win in a couple of days seems like a pretty wild swing.
― clemenza, Thursday, 23 August 2018 15:54 (five years ago) link
Wonder if the replacement level calculation gets updated every so often rather than changing automatically.
― timellison, Friday, 24 August 2018 01:06 (five years ago) link
could be other things getting updated, too, like park factors? i'm not sure. if the replacement level for calculation for pitchers was updated, wouldn't that affect all pitchers WAR?
― Karl Malone, Friday, 24 August 2018 01:11 (five years ago) link
Maybe on days when you're not playing, they factor in intangibles. Were you offering your teammates moral support from the bench, or did you spend the game in the clubhouse getting a massage? Were you out there for yesterday's bench-clearing brawl? Did you make yourself available for autographs before the game, or did you tell some seven-year old to take a hike?
― clemenza, Friday, 24 August 2018 01:34 (five years ago) link
4 bonus points for playing the game the way it was meant to be played
― Karl Malone, Friday, 24 August 2018 02:13 (five years ago) link
And that game in question was Euchre by clubhouse rules.
― earlnash, Friday, 24 August 2018 03:16 (five years ago) link
Baseball Statisticians Unveil New Analytics Model Measuring Precise Amount Of Joy They Suck From The Game https://t.co/4ljqgrBotM pic.twitter.com/lFpw3jOchd— Onion Sports Network (@OnionSports) August 24, 2018
― mookieproof, Friday, 24 August 2018 16:59 (five years ago) link
guest Onion editor Goose Gossage
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 August 2018 17:16 (five years ago) link
https://sabrstatanalysis.blog/2018/09/11/what-a-drag-it-is-getting-old
good old players are disappearing . . . since roughly around the time that steroid testing really kicked in
and yet further CBA ramifications
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 11 September 2018 20:01 (five years ago) link
useful link for the future: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/re288-run-expectancy-by-the-24-base-out-states-x-12-plate-count-states-recu
the first image is the good old run expectancy chart, broken out by pitch counts:
https://i.imgur.com/sfBkCBd.png
the second is the same data presented in a different way, relative to the 0-0 count. it took me a second to figure out wtf was going on, but you start with the number of outs and the position of the runners on base. then move to the 0-0 column. from there, it tells you how every subsequent pitch to that batter affects the run expectancy.
https://i.imgur.com/riTvIO0.png
― Karl Malone, Monday, 3 December 2018 03:01 (five years ago) link
Quite interesting:
http://www.billjamesonline.com/jack_kralick/
Was Jack Kralick the best pitcher in the American League in 1961? WAR says yes (bWAR, anyway), James says "Are you kidding?"
― clemenza, Friday, 4 January 2019 16:23 (five years ago) link
Baseball Prospectus followers: did they ever publish the detailed mechanics/formulae/algorithms of DRC+, like they said they'd do back in December? Couldn't immediately find it in the archive, and although I'm not a subscriber, it seems that is not the reason, as the titles of other subscriber-only articles do show up.
― anatol_merklich, Wednesday, 6 February 2019 20:58 (five years ago) link
There was a good reddit thread where JJudge mentioned some more info was coming...
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 6 February 2019 21:09 (five years ago) link
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/a747wg/hello_im_jonathan_judge_bachlaw_senior_metrics/
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 6 February 2019 21:10 (five years ago) link
given the monumental wealth of statistical information available now, and advances in AI, surely 95+% of managerial decisions could be outsourced to a real-time computer? and if this is true, wouldn't it be borderline negligent not to?
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 16 February 2019 11:09 (five years ago) link
some of them have been outsourced, to the degree that the field manager is expected to share the org's philosophy more specifically than ever.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 16 February 2019 14:23 (five years ago) link
Sabrites have said for awhile that allocation of playing time is more crucial than in-game tactics, and the front office has more to say about that too.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 16 February 2019 14:27 (five years ago) link
According to a friend who works for a team, most teams have their own proprietary algorithms and analytics departments. He likens SABR/FanGraphs intel to an open source resource like wikipedia.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 16 February 2019 18:06 (five years ago) link
nothing new here but https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/sports/sean-forman-sports-reference.html
― mookieproof, Saturday, 16 February 2019 21:47 (five years ago) link
this is, hands down, my favorite statcast discovery so fari looked at every two-pitch sequence (within PA but not across) in 2018 to see which combination is best at inducing swinging strikesthe result: throw the same exact pitch right before it! pic.twitter.com/8KZ8aaiGMM— Alex Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) February 21, 2019
― mookieproof, Thursday, 21 February 2019 19:32 (five years ago) link
i'd also be curious to see the analysis of the bad results of the throwing the same exact pitch twice. in other words, it leads to higher swinging strikes more often than other combinations, but maybe it also leads to a higher HR% or harder contact, etc - either it completely fools people or they're primed to wail on it. dunno, just guessing
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 21 February 2019 19:34 (five years ago) link
yeah i can see going changeup-changeup being a high risk/high reward scenario
― mookieproof, Thursday, 21 February 2019 19:39 (five years ago) link
good point, karl
― k3vin k., Thursday, 21 February 2019 20:48 (five years ago) link
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/affinity-pitchersAndHitters-byHittingProfile
― mookieproof, Thursday, 7 March 2019 16:47 (five years ago) link
explain that?
― k3vin k., Thursday, 7 March 2019 17:21 (five years ago) link
Enjoyed this:
Also wrote @ringer about how the rise of the opener is changing WAR, whether working as an opener or a bulk guy could affect a pitcher's earnings, and why unlike a lot of traditional stats, WAR never stays the same.https://t.co/cAswNEVH6c— Ben Lindbergh (@BenLindbergh) March 25, 2019
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 02:02 (five years ago) link
Pre-move excavation...Found this list of the greatest hitters ever I drew up in 1976 or 1977, a couple of years after I bought my first Big Mac (and around the time I owned my first calculator). The very elegant formula I used is at the top. Keep in mind that a) I would have been 14 or 15, and b) I was still at least five years away from any awareness of Bill James or Thomas Boswell or anyone.
http://phildellio.tripod.com/hitters.jpg
The bad: 1) The randomness of the formula. There's an attempt to weigh the different elements (10 x HR vs. 1 x SB), but the final number (Ted Williams - 65.12) connects to nothing.
2) Strikeouts four times as important as walks! So Joe Sewell comes out ahead of Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. Um...I have no words of defense.
3) Runs and RBI front and center.
3) I'm not even sure the formula works. I remember finding this a couple of decades ago, and when I tried to calculate a couple of hitters, their overall rating didn't match what was on the paper. I suspect I calculated parts of the formula in some order that didn't follow correct order of operations.
The good: 1) An awareness that batting average and HR weren't everything.
2) Did I mention I was 14 or 15?
I'm very impressed with the printing in view of my illegible scrawl nowadays.
― clemenza, Saturday, 2 November 2019 19:26 (four years ago) link
I don't know who the mystery player is at 51.05...
― clemenza, Saturday, 2 November 2019 19:27 (four years ago) link
I suspect I calculated parts of the formula in some order that didn't follow correct order of operations.
You did! You just went left to right when there is a multiplication in the middle.
― timellison, Saturday, 2 November 2019 21:48 (four years ago) link
I don’t see strikeouts in the formula! Also, it penalizes walks I guess? Dammit 13 year old Clemens’s, wtf??jk of course. This was a noble effort. esp knowing that you had to hand calculate everything. Weren’t you afraid you missed some players? (Unless...you didn’t do every player of all time...did you?)
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Saturday, 2 November 2019 23:55 (four years ago) link
Sorry, my phone autocorrected you to the rocket
Or wait, it’s adding for walks, and then subtracting 250
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Saturday, 2 November 2019 23:56 (four years ago) link
That's supposed to be 2 x SO - 1/2 x BB; strikeouts looks like 50. An ILX'or I'm Facebook friends with figured out how to make the numbers work out...Mike Trout comes in at 43-something, just below Mantle. The guy just strikes out too damn often, and I'm surprised the Angels don't cut him loose.
― clemenza, Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:20 (four years ago) link
give me ed delahanty over any of these bozos
― at home in the alternate future, (Karl Malone), Sunday, 3 November 2019 04:24 (four years ago) link