Bryce Harper, catcher and Scott Boras advisee

12 hits right now--in 550 AB, it'd be 20. But if you want to approach the question from that angle, that a few hits don't matter much, then surely those few hits aren't going to move him from a 0.0 WAR to one of the 10 most valuable players in the NL.

I'm not sure if you're saying that he is or isn't overrated.

there are only so many teams that have or would spend the kind of money he wants. the yankees seem to have a pretty full outfield? they could put him at first, but greg bird is *also* hitting .214 this year, and at 1/40th of the cost. the red sox signed jd martinez last winter and have mookie eligible for arbitration this winter. (mookie, btw, is nine days older than harper and is 4.5 bWAR up on him in two fewer seasons.)

the cubs and giants already have $140m on the books for 2019, which doesn't count raises for people like baez and bryant. the dodgers could afford him, but seem relatively unlikely to offer a historic contract for a guy as inconsistent as harper has been.

maybe the phillies? except i'd expect the phillies to be more interested in machado, as should, perhaps, most teams

The outside club I was thinking is maybe the Rangers. They have dropped some cash on some hitters over the years.

I'm not sure if you're saying that he is or isn't overrated.

― clemenza, Monday, July 16, 2018 7:08 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Wasn’t really saying either. I think his BABIP is really weird this year. I find him fascinating tho also lol this HR derby he’s such a choad

He's 25. Most guys are enter their prime now. Maybe he's a year late.

If I had to bet on 2015 or this year being the more anomalous, I'd definitely bet on this year. The list of position players besides Harper who've put up 10-WAR seasons since the war: Yastrzemski, Bonds, Ripken, Mantle, Mays, Musial, Morgan, Williams, Yount, Boudreau, Banks, Trout, A-Rod, Sosa, Rosen, Petrocelli. That's a pretty formidable list. I think at worst he'll have a better career than the last two guys, and they were good. My guess would be that he exceeds his current career slash line (.277/.384/.510) for the next several seasons. But again, I don't know who else you'd name as the most overrated player right now (or even based cumulatively on the last three seasons).

But again, I don't know who else you'd name as the most overrated player right now (or even based cumulatively on the last three seasons).

The DH for the Angels has made $24M/yr over the past 3 years while putting up a cumulative -1.1 WAR, and has batted exclusively in the 3rd/4th/5th spot in the lineup.

Pujols crossed my mind, but is there anyone who still rates him highly (except, I guess, the manager who continues to bat him 3rd/4th/5th)? I don't see overpaid and overrated as the same thing.

He was overrated by the Angels GM during the 2011 offseason

For a while I think Strasburg was a bit overrated, back when he still had some of that residual legendary buzz from his pre-injury days but was merely very good instead of elite.

But now I think he might actually be a bit underrated!

Probably a few such pieces out there at the moment:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/should_the_nationals_trade_bryce_harper/

Be forewarned: intangibles are discussed.

oh *bill*

Not BJ, Dave Fleming.

Homered in the first game today, .293/.419/.573 over the last 30 days. Doesn't suck.

that -3.3 dWAR on bWAR for 2018 is something else. wonder how legit that rating is; i wouldn't be surprised if he's not particularly good out there but that number is shockingly bad.

I know eye test doesn’t mean much but what I saw from him, this season, was just very bad.

mlbtraderumors predicts 14 years, $420M for harper

(13 years, $390M for Machado, for the same $30M AAV)

Will also be on the cover of the show 19

insane

what was wrong with his defense? Ben Lindbergh:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/11/20/18104199/bryce-harper-free-agency-defense

some of those misplays are brutal

move him back to C! make the thread title relevant again!

getting easier to hate

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/03/26/bryce-harper-is-pandering-hard-to-philly-fans/

If he ever has a bad season they’re going to boo the fuck out of him

they booed Mike Schmidt in good seasons!

i'm sure that's true, but i think the fact that he *chose* them will go a long way

Bryce got a tad upset with the strike calls tonight

you can buy Bryce's pomade

https://www.amazon.com/stores/page/7FD8ED49-CB2F-4406-A326-54374A7DE0F8/

Bryce takes Hunter Strickland deep again. pic.twitter.com/hOFRO31tPi

— Jamal Collier (@JamalCollier) September 25, 2019

Dan Shulman, on a Toronto call-in this morning, called Harper a really, really talented player who ranks about #15-20 across both leagues. Sounds about right. (Except in April, when he leaps to the front of the class.)

WAR: it adds up over time. Harper was looking pretty poor earlier this year, but his second half has bailed him out somewhat overall, even if this is a bit of an off season by expectations.

#15-20 is a little optimistic

Seeing as there are as many as eight Astros/Red Sox players who'd rank ahead of him--Altuve, Bregman, Betts, and Bogarts for sure; Springer and Correa probably; Devers and Alvarez maybe; I'd add Martinez, too, if not for the age difference--you're probably right.

Yelich has more or less the same WAR as Harper with 500 less PA.

Speaking of Fred Lynn (I was, the other day, on the Juan Soto thread)...Is Harper Fred Lynn? Harper had a three-year jump age-wise, but through nine seasons, they're pretty close:

BH: 138 OPS+, 33.4 WAR
FL: 137 OPS+, 36.9 WAR

Two monster seasons each, although Harper's 2017 was injury-shortened; ROY both, one MVP each. (Lynn should have won a second in '79, an infamously terrible vote.)

i miss morbs. he would have bumped this thread several times by now. he's right there in the NL MVP race, and would seem to be the favorite if PHI can squeak into the playoffs. (i think if the padres make it, it's Tatis? if the reds make it...not sure)

(preamble about how harper often seems to be seen as a disappointment compared to his early promise)

his career line is now .278/.389/.520, a wRC+ of 141, wOPA of .384.
42 fWAR, 38.4 bWAR at age 28

pretty solid!

I used to be so down on Bryce but I was wrong

Definitely an MVP candidate...not sure I'd assume his career inconsistency is over, though. (His career numbers will likely remain in proximity to HOF-level because of how good his good years are.)

he has a good case but man what a depressing NL MVP race it's been, you've got prime acuna and tatis and soto and degrom and mookie and the league leader might not surpass 6 fWAR

well i guess corbin burnes and zack wheeler surpassed it already tbf

neither of them seem like candidates though

not sure I'd assume his career inconsistency is over, though.

this is what i mean, though - he hasn't been very inconsistent! i think that's his reputation. but look at his numbers:

https://i.imgur.com/Eg7Yf8K.png

his 2014 is his second worst, as a hitter. but he was 21 years old, and seriously injured for maybe the first time (?) in his career? and even then, he puts up a 115 wRC+, as a 21 year old, only looking bad in comparison to his own first couple years.

then his MVP 2015, which i think had the effect of resetting the expectation of him as a perennial mike trout superstar.

then his worst year, offensively, 2016. wRC+ of 111 -- 11% better than an average hitter -- dropping from .330 BA to .243 (BAPIB dropped from .369 to .264) looked bad, but his OBP was still .373!

and that's about it. those are his relatively bad seasons. his next worst hitting season is when he was 19 (wRC+ 121), and after that is 2019 (wRC+ 125), his first year in Philadelphia.

he's a pretty good lock for 4+ fWAR each year, and with upside for years like 2015 and 2021 as well. seems pretty consistent!

I think we're just looking at it from a different angle. then his MVP 2015, which i think had the effect of resetting the expectation of him as a perennial mike trout superstar--unfair as it may be, that's mine. If he were to stay where he is right now for a couple more seasons, I'd likely stop thinking that way. I still see Fred Lynn as a good comparison. Lynn also had a very good age-28 season--not as good as Harper this year, but he did get some MVP support. Another comparison (see above), this time Harper today vs. Lynn through his age-28 season:

Harper: .278/.389/.520, 141 OPS+, 38.4 WAR
Lynn: .308/.383/.520, 141 OPS+, 32.1 WAR

That's pretty damn close (Harper had a three-year head start on WAR). Lynn followed up with a disastrous strike-year season (injury? don't remember), then was never the same after that. So we'll see.

i guess i just mean, 10 years, 42 WAR for harper. he already proved himself

Good column:

https://open.substack.com/pub/joeposnanski/p/the-yankees-bryce-harper-and-what?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

(xposts) A year later--and assuming Harper continues playing this well--the Lynn comparison is moot.