aaron judge needs his own thread

it's not that high given his skillset...he hits the ball really hard, runs well, and doesn't pop it up a lot. he's going to run high BABIPs

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza,

i appreciate bold claims like this, i really do! and after last year, it was at least a plausible viewpoint, especially considering bellinger's relative youth.

but i must ask you now - would you still rather have cody bellinger?

Is Judge even going to come back this season?

maybe after Labor Day, sounds like

tbh i kinda forgot he was even injured, but i guess he's supposed to back in a couple of weeks. no surgery.

xpost

Karl--I honestly didn't view preferring Bellinger at that point to be very bold; it was completely in line with a lot of research (by James, whose credibility I realize is pretty shaky on this board) as to the future prospects of a 21-year-old vs. a 25-year-old. That's a four-year window; that's quite a jump. Add to that all of Judge's strikeouts and park factors, and it looked like an obvious pick to me. Bellinger also had a pretty historic season last year.

Right now, it obviously looks bad; it'd be an easy time to second-guess. I'm still willing to give it a couple years...that's the whole idea of the window, I think, that Bellinger is young enough that he may not yet be close to where he ends up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJuBgmWwAERpN0.jpg:small

Bellinger's having a okay year:

.261/.344/.471 (.267/.352/.581 last year)
120 OPS+ (143)
3.6 WAR (4.2)
2B, BB, K the same (in 40 extra AB)

Basically the same season...with the one big difference very significant: 15 fewer home runs. If this is were he levels off, he's nothing special. But he's still only 22, so he's got time.

(Previous discussion will explain why I'm posting this here.)

"where he levels off"

And not helped by his park:

.245/.331/.484 at home for his career, .281/.364/.562 on the road.

Aaron Judge returns to the #Yankees lineup: pic.twitter.com/IDENp1GwYs

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 18, 2018

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 2:24 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

¯\(°_o)/¯

Bellinger and Judge are pretty close now for their careers--Judge still has a slight edge (which might surprise, but his advantage after two seasons was huge):

B: .278/.368/.562, 108 HR, 145 OPS+, 16.7 WAR
J: .273/.394/.552, 103 HR, 150 OPS+, 17.4 WAR

I doubt Bellinger will continue at anywhere near the level of this year (which is mostly attributable to his phenomenal start), but the four years he has on Judge may really start to show up in the next few seasons.

bellinger's second half (.940 OPS) is still better than judge's season (.886), and that's despite bellinger's second-half BABIP dropping to an unreasonable .252

idk how sustainable this is on bellinger's part, but his K rate this season is 16.4% while judge's is 31%, and he's still generating more power. that's remarkable

Was at Dodger stadium a few days ago, sitting in the clouds, and it was remarkable to see where Bellinger stands in the box, as far back as possible which is normal but as close to the plate as he could get. With his standing stance he only occupied about maybe 1/8 of the box in total

One thing that has fluctuated with Bellinger (someone pointed this out on a game I was listening to) are his platoon splits. First year, even; second year, left-handers killed him; 2019, he's hitting right-handers a little better, but not a big difference. It would seem that the middle year was the anomaly.

Two seasons shortened by injury plus two COVID seasons, this one not nearly finished, but has Judge ever been consistent since his big rookie season:

2018: .278/.392/.528
2019: .272/.381/.540
2020: .257/.336/.554
2021: .272/.385/.568

Being healthy is a skill

I was working hard to keep all my told-you-so's in check during Bellinger's MVP year, but I'm starting to have doubts again as to whose long-term prospects are better.

Big judge

Slash line killah

https://i.imgur.com/S9nWvhH.png

what am i looking at here

should i be 'reading between the lines' Zach?

nothing shocking, just a chart showing wOBA for bellinger (blue line) and judge (black line). the green line is the MLB average. bellinger's really fallen off this year, and wasn't great last year!

why these two? i have no idea why i still think about this, but bellinger and judge are always connected in my mind due to a bold prediction clemenza made a few years ago but how who would be better. i cannot think about either one without immediately thinking about the other now, lol

did clemenza say bellinger was going to be better?

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

― nomar, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:52 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:59 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:08 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:15 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:16 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:17 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:18 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:19 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:21 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:23 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:27 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:31 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

(that year was not any indication, though)

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

still feel good about this

yeah, that was a pretty solid take!

This is sort of the Bellinger thread too.

twitter.com/billjamesonline/status/1440799366243971078

Is there any historical precedent for a young player as great as Cody Bellinger was in 2017 and 2019 collapsing in the way that he has? (Not including pitchers; pitchers are different animals.) But I don't think I have ever seen this happen before. If there is precedent, who?

Ready to wave the white flag here. The Bellinger call looked like genius in 2019, but he's terrible for the third year running now, while Judge, if he can stay healthy through his 30s, might have an outside shot at the HOF. Bellinger's four-year head start is becoming increasingly meaningless.

judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didnt sniff the HOF

like, is nelson cruz gonna be a hall of famer? that seems like the best case

Agree that he probably wouldn't go in for bulk career numbers; was thinking more of a concentrated peak period. But, again, if he can stay healthy for seven or eight seasons, maybe he'd get to 450 HR by the time he's 37, which'd give him a shot at 500 (if that still means anything by then). But a couple of MVPs and a couple of WS would probably be a more viable path, and he's got a pretty good jump on both this season.

(I meant to say sustained peak period.)

now that we've achieved closure on bellinger vs judge, you know bellinger is going to suddenly catch fire

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10
― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM

still feel good about this
― k3vin k., Wednesday, August 11, 2021 5:43 PM

yeah, that was a pretty solid take!
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, August 11, 2021 6:35 PM

Everyone missed the obvious answer:

I'll take Bellinger for 2019, and Judge for every other year ever till the end of eternity.

we'll always have 2019 bellinger

judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didn't sniff the HOF

Hit his 20th tonight in the Yankees 52nd game; a 60-HR season would make up for some of that lost time.

Looking at some projections he’s expected to land somewhere between 49-52 home runs. But I guess projection models are always on the cautious side, so it would take a lot of assume 60 home runs. Either way, I don’t see him being able to keep this up another 7 seasons, or whatever it would take to get his counting stats up to HOF muster.

Definitely not assuming...I'm using basic ratios here: 20/52 = 62/162. I guess the assumption in those models is regression-to-mean, or guys slow down, or something. And again, I don't think Judge will ever go in the HOF as a counting-stats guy (even if he manages to hit 500 HR); it'd have to be some combination of MVP prominence, team success, and something like a 60-HR season.

(Suddenly I'm Aaron Judge's biggest advocate--sorry, Cody, I've thrown you overboard.)

They're not at all similar, but I'm thinking something like the Kirby Puckett HOF route: a couple of World Series wins, MVP support virtually every year, good slash stats, very popular (at least while he played), sustained decade of excellence. Puckett never had COVID or injuries to deal with, though, so that sustained period of excellence is going to have some blips with Judge.

And Judge hits another…

gonna be interesting to see how his contract situation plays out -- he's already turned down an extension offer from the yankees, and it sure seems like he was right to do it

otoh he'll be 31 next april and i'm not sure how many years he can reasonably get

Jaffe has a HOF update/roundup on Fangraphs today. I think he sees Judge basically as I do (skipped the middle paragraph):

I said I wouldn’t dwell upon anybody with seven or fewer seasons, but Judge, who leads the AL in bWAR and the majors in fWAR (4.7), is worth making an exception for while he’s in the midst of a monster season. He’s already 30 years old, and between his late start (he was a 25-year-old rookie) and his difficulty staying on the field (he’s played more than 112 games in a season just twice), he’ll have to remain exceptionally productive for at least the next half-decade to reach Cooperstown. Still, we’re talking about a player who has averaged 7.0 WAR per 650 PA thus far and who has raised his ceiling considerably over the past three months...

Long story short, a Hall of Fame berth for Judge isn’t out of the question, but he can’t afford to miss a quarter or a third of a season, or to suddenly turn into a 3–4 WAR per year player if he’s to get there.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-tracks-on-the-road-to-cooperstown-whos-boosted-their-hall-odds-in-2022/

And as I read that, I get a notification he hit a home run.

Houston swept a double-header with NY tonight, and Alvarez--possibly Judge's main competition for MVP (if, like me, you think there'll be a reluctance to go with Ohtani again)--had a big night.

(if, like me, you think there'll be a reluctance to go with Ohtani again)

i know you hate the hype surrounding him -- although afaik he himself has been suitably demure, unlike the much-hated marcus stroman who still headlines the jays thread three years later

but also i think you're being absurd. ohtani is a top-ten pitcher and a plus-plus hitter and -- idk, maybe judge hits 80 homers? -- you are *desperately* looking for ways to blind yourself to his greatness

I think he just thinks a lot of writers/voters are idiots

My eye-rolling at mlb.com's hyping everything Ohtani does aside, I'm not expressing a personal opinion at all when weighing his chances to repeat as MVP. As you full well know, there has always been a strong tendency in MVP voting for writers to look for a new story every year. That's why Mays and Bonds didn't win another five MVPs each. If Ohtani is in the neighborhood of other MVP candidates at the end of the year, I'd bet money he won't repeat. If he's 2.0 or 3.0 WAR ahead, then sure, he will. But I don't think he will be.

Hit his 37th today--on pace for 62.