worst contract out of these $100 million contracts

the howard deal is extra special because iirc it didn't even kick in for a couple seasons -- completely unnecessary

plus there was virtually no competition for him. was anyone really gonna offer a 32-year old slugger anything close to that?

If Chris Davis gets to -4.0 WAR then he might be the winner. That's nearly as much (negative) value as all five years of Ryan Howard's extension!

eric hosmer's eight-year/$144m deal is not off to a good start

93 wRC+, 0.3 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR at age 28 in the *first* year of the deal

Just think, the Padres can build up their team around the hosmer core for the next 7 years, they’re gonna be great

what we've learned from all this is . . . never sign first basemen. don't even sign ian desmond and inexplicably move him to first. put a reliever there if you want, or better yet just field eight players

Scott Hatteberg

wasnt sure where to put this but whoa damn kenta maeda is on a team friendly deal

2016 28 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2017 29 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2018 30 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2019 31 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2020 32 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2021 33 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2022 34 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2023 35 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
Earliest Free Agent: 2024

hm ok i guess some incentives too, had physical "irregularities"

https://www.truebluela.com/2016/1/7/10733574/kenta-maeda-contract-details-dodgers-risk-bonuses

I guess Toronto inherited Tulowitzki's contract, but his arrival here coincided with him hitting the $20M mark.

2007	22	Colorado Rockies	$381,000	?		
2008	23	Colorado Rockies	$750,000	?		
2009	24	Colorado Rockies	$1,000,000	?		
2010	25	Colorado Rockies	$3,500,000	3.033		
2011	26	Colorado Rockies	$5,500,000	4.033		
2012	27	Colorado Rockies	$8,250,000	5.033	contracts	
2013	28	Colorado Rockies	$10,000,000	6.033	contracts	
2014	29	Colorado Rockies	$16,000,000	7.033	contracts	
2015	30	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	8.033	contracts	
2016	31	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	9.033		
2017	32	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	10.033	contracts	
2018	33	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	11.033		
2019	34	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000		
2020	35	Toronto Blue Jays	$14,000,000		
2021	36	Toronto Blue Jays	*$15,000,000	$15M Team Option, $4M Buyout

I don't know how long it was before we started paying the whole amount. Anyway, the Jays are on the hook until 2021. For that, we got...a symbolic jolt out of the deal in 2015 (day after or day before getting Price, I think), great defense that first year, a few key hits, and not much else ever since.

We compared every MLB player who has signed for at least $100 mil. Two of the many takeaways: get'em when they're young (like Machado and Harper); shy away from the second big deal.https://t.co/BpykPfKpgU

— Joe Ward (@wardnyt) February 20, 2019

eric hosmer's eight-year/$144m deal is not off to a good start

93 wRC+, 0.3 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR at age 28 in the *first* year of the deal

― mookieproof, Thursday, August 2, 2018 3:32 PM (one year ago) bookmarkflaglink

second year update

97 wRC+, .275/.323/.434, ISO .158, 0.0 fWAR, age 29. $102M left on the contract from 2020-25 (unless he takes advantage of hosmer fever and opts out after 2022).

second lowest ISO among qualified first basement (ahead of only joey votto ;_;)

his wrC+ is worst, just behind albert pujols

https://www.kshb.com/sports/baseball/royals/hosmer-fever-strikes-at-bieber-concert

machado hasn't been overwhelming in his first year either -- i mean he's still *good*, but only a 107 wRC+

Machado's first couple/few months were dismal, he's salvaging something out of this season.

also has defensive value

interesting how much better harper's defense is rated this season than last

Players who qualifying for the batting title putting up consecutive sub-replacement seasons is a less frequent occurrence than you may think. Prior to Hosmer, only 63 players in history have managed the feat a total of 75 times. Nobody’s done it since 2014 (Billy Butler and Ryan Howard) and the last player to manage it and still get enough playing time the following year to qualify was Roger Cedeno in 2003. The third time was the charm and Cedeno finally lost his job.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-have-a-first-base-problem

miggy might join that exclusive club this year, if he plays enough. if he wasn't injured for most of 2018 he might have already done it

Prince Albert averaging 0.1 bWAR over the past four seasons deserves an honorable mention.

without trying to defend their contracts, miggy and albert are hall of famers, and old and broken. hosmer managed this while healthy at age 28-29

Posnanski put Pujols at #23 on his Top 100 list yesterday. (The rankings not meant to be taken particularly seriously, as he has pointed out many times.)

i might buy his book when it comes out (i'm assuming this will be a book). i really liked the top 100 countdown back when it was on his website

trout was in the mid-20s, right? surprised to see him not in the top 10

Trout's at #27. I don't know how much rewriting there's been on the current countdown--can't remember how far he got last time, either (not to #1, I know that).

For reference that is 14,286 Chris Davis contracts https://t.co/FamuS5Xbcb

— Bmore Train-liking Fellow (@FreeMassTransit) August 25, 2021

This is floating around today, with Bobby Bonilla mentioned every time--as in, leave him alone, there's a new gold-standard for deferred insanity.

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/sports-world-shocked-by-chris-davis-payment-details

the thing is that deferred money is far more favorable to the franchise than the player. if i owe chris davis $42 million i’d rather spread it out over 15 years too

True...It's more of a symbolic effect. If you pay the guy up front, he's out of sight and out of mind when he retires; this way, it's a never-ending reminder of how bad that contract is.

if i owe chris davis $42 million

that tweet cited in the article was incorrect (they replied with a correction shortly thereafter), it's $59M. but yeah, if you assume a 2.5% inflation rate for the next 15 years, deferring the money saves the team about $7M 2022 dollars -- moreso if you think inflation will be higher than 2.5%. also, the orioles don't have much money, right? if you offered an orioles fan the choice between using the money saved by deferring to compete in 2023, or instead paying off the chris davis contract in a lump sum, i'm guessing they'd choose to have more money to spend on active players, now. it opens up payroll space in the current time period while reducing the real money value of the future payments.

the only party that is actually damaged by these deferments is the player themselves, because they're getting paid less. the fans will complain during each deferment period where an old bust gets another couple million dollars, but they're complaining about an action that made a very bad Chris Davis contract slightly less bad (imo)

ALL THAT SAID - in a situation like Chris Davis, i agree with clemenza that there is a very strong symbolic effect, and this whole conversation is going to take place every single year until 2037 among orioles fans, at the least, reminding everyone of how terrible the contract was and that they're still paying for it. all the deferment stuff makes financial sense, but baseball and fandom in general is full of intangible things that should also be considered

Wonder which of the recent massive deals will wind up the worst…my money’s on bogaerts.

it's an older, smaller bad contract, but Bumgarner's deal with the diamondbacks (5 years, $85M) has been pretty bad. this line from the ZiPS preview for the 2023 dbacks jumped out: "ZiPS actually thinks Bumgarner has more value as a pitcher hitting in a non-DH league than as, well, a pitcher."

Wonder which of the recent massive deals will wind up the worst

i'd love to see them all get a chance to stay healthy and see what they can do. unfortunately i think when it comes to a 12+ year contract it starts to become more likely that injuries or PED revelations will derail a career. imagine if a 25-year-old grady sizemore was playing these days, and just got a 13-year mega extension. based on his first handful of years, you'd think there was no way it could go wrong

Wonder which of the recent massive deals will wind up the worst…my money’s on bogaerts.

― omar little, Thursday, December 15, 2022 5:30 PM (forty-five minutes ago)

de grom. bogaerts will at least be on the field

Oof yeah you’re right forgot about him

miguel cabrera, 2016-2023, $248M ($31M AAV)

so far, he has 3 WAR over the course of the first 6 years of the 7 year contract

in the first year of the contract, he had a 5.1 bWAR, followed by: -0.9, 0.2, 0.0, 0.1, -0.5, -1.0

but hey, that first year -- great!

buyer bWAR

I'm posting the exact opposite here--or maybe this is the worst contract post free-agency from a player's standpoint. Ozzie Albies, of course. For seven million this year, the Braves have a 4.0-5.0 WAR second baseman with 30 HR, 100 RBI, and a .500+ slugging percentage, just heading into what should be the prime of his career. They also have him for the same seven million in 2024 and 2025.

Stephen Strasburg has retired. He signed a $245,000,000 contract in 2019 but threw only 530 pitches in the big leagues after that. pic.twitter.com/rrPKMmChwS

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 7, 2024

Actually unbelievable. They got their ring though 🤷‍♂️

I think Strasburg would have been good for a few more years if he had stayed healthy, unlike most of the players discussed on this thread.

this was a trickier situation than usual due to the size of the money owed to Strasburg and the Nationals' lack of insurance for his contract, which usually mitigates long-term injury risk.

i have no idea what it would have cost to insure a contract like that, but wow was forgoing it a terrible decision

It might not have been insurable if he had a history of injury

i hate to say it since i will love him forever, but that contract the Rockies gave Kris Bryant is looking pretty bad.