From the USS Mariner:
More Felix FunFiled under: Mariners— Dave @ 8:17 am. Because there’s nothing else on the team that even begins to bring a smile to my face, here’s more musings on the greatness of Felix Hernandez.
Through four starts, King Felix has faced 107 batters and allowed 0 extra base hits. How good is that? He’s tied Mariano Rivera for the fourth longest streak of batters faced without giving up an extra base knock on the season, and if his next start is anything like his first four, he’ll stand alone at the top of the list. Here it is, for those who are curious.
Kyle Farnsworth, 125 batters faced, May 2nd to August 4thSergio Mitre, 115 batters faced, May 29th to June 24thNoah Lowry, 113 batters faced, July 26th to August 17thMariano Rivera, 107 batters faced, April 9th to July 2ndFelix Hernandez, 107 batters faced, August 4th to present
The craziest name on the list (which I got from the awesome Keith Woolner-thanks Keith): Shigetoshi Hasegawa, who faced 76 batters from May 29th to July 29th without allowing an extra base knock. Who knew?
Going back to the past 33 years (all that we have play by play data for), by the way, the record belongs to Bob Welch at 223 batters faced.
Okay, how about something else? The chances of different events occurring in any given at-bat against Felix through his first four starts:
14.95 % chance of a hit0.00 % chance of an extra base hit3.74 % chance of a walk0.93 % chance of being HBP28.04 % chance of striking out42.06 % of hitting into a groundout10.28 % chance of flying out
If you want a comparison, here’s Dwight Gooden’s percentages from his crazy 1985 season, when he won the Cy Young at age 20.
18.59 % chance of a hit3.66 % chance of an extra base hit6.48 % chance of a walk0.19 % chance of being HBP25.16 % chance of striking out
Opposing batters put up a .201/.253/.270 line against Gooden that season. The average line for the hitters he faced that year was .253/.319/.375. In other words, Gooden knocked 25 percent off a normal hitters line when he faced him. Felix is cutting 53 percent off the average line of the hitters he has faced, turning them into a collection of pitchers. People are hitting .157/.196/.157 against him. That’s… there’s no words for that.
Lets see, what else. Among major league starting pitchers who qualify for the ERA title, here are the league leaders in a few categories, and then Felix’s numbers next to those:
ERA: Clemens, 1.56 - Felix, 1.24Fielding Independant ERA: Clemens, 2.61 - Felix, 1.60Component ERA: Clemens, 1.64 - Felix, 0.70 (!)G/F: Webb, 3.90 - Felix, 4.25BB/G: Silva, 0.5 - Felix, 1.4K/G: Peavy, 11.0, - Felix, 10.4Line Drive %: Lowe, 15.5 percent - Felix, 11.0 percentOpponents OPS: Clemens, .507 - Felix, .353WHIP: P. Martinez, 0.89 - Felix, 0.67Pitches/Inning: Silva, 12.0 - Felix, 13.4 (Felix would rank a measly 2nd in the majors)
Among starting pitchers, his groundball rate is the best in the majors, his strikeout rate is second best, and his walk rate would tie him for sixth best. He’s given up less line drives than anyone else. It’s not even close, actually. His rate of baserunners per innings is off the chart. And he’s doing it with less pitches than everyone other than Carlos “Walks Are A Ticket To Hell” Silva.
How about this one. Game Score is kind of a gimmicky stat developed to summarize a pitchers start in one number (which is almost impossible), but its kinda fun to look at. The highest average game score this year belongs to Roger Clemens (of course) at 66.3. Felix’s average game score? 72.3. His average game score in his last three starts, where he wasn’t on a restrictive pitch count? 77.3.
Through four starts, Felix has been a mutant combination of Randy Johnson’s strikeout dominance, Greg Maddux’s control, Roy Halladay’s efficiency, and Brandon Webb’s groundball rate.
His next start is at home on Friday against the White Sox. Buy tickets. Go to the game. Don’t miss the King in action. Good luck, White Sox.
― gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 22 August 2005 18:51 (eighteen years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 22 August 2005 19:01 (eighteen years ago) link
I'll be at the game Friday. Should be good.
― jerginsk (jergins), Monday, 22 August 2005 19:26 (eighteen years ago) link
― Leeeeeeee (Leee), Monday, 22 August 2005 21:18 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 22 August 2005 21:38 (eighteen years ago) link
Anyway, you guys can have your rookies because when Halladay comes back I will kick all of your sorry asses.
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Monday, 22 August 2005 22:07 (eighteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 01:28 (eighteen years ago) link
― jerginsk (jergins), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 02:47 (eighteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 19:03 (eighteen years ago) link
*23 year-old ChiSox prospect Brian N. Anderson. If he can hit 2 HRs off the "Best Pitching Prospect in baseball", surely he must be equally as impressive? Especially since his Tacos Supremas both came off of Felix's "unhittable" curveballs?
So this Wednesday: King Felix vs. Big Unit in Seattle, I'm gonna try to tune in.
― gygax! (gygax!), Sunday, 28 August 2005 16:53 (eighteen years ago) link
There is no reason for a 19-year-old on a last-place team to go over 100+ pitches in a start after a full season of minor-league work.
― David R. (popshots75`), Sunday, 28 August 2005 17:07 (eighteen years ago) link
― Dustyyy Bakeeer (Leee), Sunday, 28 August 2005 17:24 (eighteen years ago) link
MarinerDan (SF, CA): Joe, what is your best prediction for the career path of Felix Hernandez? What's the upside and what is the downside?
Joe Sheehan: I think he'll be one of the five best pitchers in the AL for his next 50 starts or so, then miss some non-trivial amount of time to an arm injury. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Monday, 29 August 2005 15:15 (eighteen years ago) link
VERSUS RANDY JOHNSON!
MOJO DOJO!
― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 13:30 (eighteen years ago) link
Lots of great quotes in this one:
In the seventh inning against Kansas City, he had a hint of trouble with runners on first and third, two outs and a 3-2 count to Mark Teahen. Catcher Yorvit Torrealba called for a fastball. Hernandez shook him off. Torrealba called for it again and Hernandez shook him off again. "I thought, 'O.K., this is interesting,' " Torrealba said. Hernandez came in with an 84-m.p.h. changeup, striking out Teahen.
"I've caught other young guys before and all they want to do is throw their fastball because that's their best pitch and they can locate it," Torrealba said. "But this guy, for 19 years old, man, that's nice. He's acting like he's been around for a long time."
― d4niel coh3n (dayan), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 15:30 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 17:18 (eighteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 31 August 2005 17:23 (eighteen years ago) link
And yet he still looked pretty good against the Yanqs, his K:BB trend is definitely regressing but WHIP remained solid against one of the most dangerous offensives in the game.
I think I'm gonna go see him on Labor Day.
― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 1 September 2005 03:52 (eighteen years ago) link
It was nice of Sterling to jinx Da Unit's no-no, tho - after the bottom of the 5th, he announces that RJ has a no-hitter, and RJ gratiously allows a double in the 6th. Smooooooooth.
― David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 1 September 2005 04:06 (eighteen years ago) link
― Jimmy Mod Loves Alan Canseco (The Famous Jimmy Mod), Thursday, 1 September 2005 04:12 (eighteen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 1 September 2005 12:05 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 6 September 2005 01:17 (eighteen years ago) link
-- gygax! (gygax0...), August 22nd, 2005 3:38 PM. (gygax!)
So not only did Bruce Chen outclass King Felix last week, but (as feared) he only lasted 3 innings against the Rangers in Arlington. Can he rebound? I hope so, I took a lot of pix of him in Oakland warming up!
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 20 September 2005 03:30 (eighteen years ago) link
― jergins (jergins), Thursday, 22 September 2005 00:02 (eighteen years ago) link
― Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Thursday, 22 September 2005 01:02 (eighteen years ago) link
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 22 September 2005 01:44 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 28 September 2005 23:17 (eighteen years ago) link
Hmm, how delightfully unnecessary.
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Wednesday, 28 September 2005 23:24 (eighteen years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 28 September 2005 23:43 (eighteen years ago) link
http://flickr.com/photos/70149262@N00/sets/72057594085666437/
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Sunday, 19 March 2006 19:11 (eighteen years ago) link
Shin splints will prevent El Rey from missing his last start of the Spring.
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 28 March 2006 21:26 (eighteen years ago) link
― Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 29 March 2006 01:57 (eighteen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 29 March 2006 13:05 (eighteen years ago) link
Rob Neyer: (3:33 PM ET ) Sure: he's fine. He made a couple of lousy pitches last week, and on Sunday he gave up two unearned runs that weren't his fault at all. His strikeout rate is excellent, his control's been okay. He's not going to win any awards this season, but I like him just as much today as I did a month ago.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 18:47 (eighteen years ago) link
― TINSTAAPP can eat a dick (popshots75`), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 18:59 (eighteen years ago) link
Homeruns vs. Batters Faced:2005: 1.5% (5/328)2006: 6.0% (4/67) [The great 2006 home run explosion?]
Pitches per Plate Appearance:2005: 3.712006: 5.97 [Neyer: "his control's been okay". you got that right Robbay!]
BB/9:2005: 2.452006: 3.97 [see above]
Strikeout to Walk ratio:2005: 3.352006: 2.60 [sure his strikeout rate is up but walk rate is up even more]
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS allowed:2005: .203/.263/.283/.5462006: .375/.478/.625/1.103 <=YOWZA! probably the most shocking of all the stats IMO
Groundballs vs. Flyballs:2005: 149/45 = 3.312006: 19/14 = 1.36 [ :_( ]
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 19:29 (eighteen years ago) link
is Felix Hernandez your Dontrelle Willis this year, Steve?
― Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 19:41 (eighteen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 19:55 (eighteen years ago) link
He's not walking too many more batters (maybe one or two more per start compared to last year) but hitters are being a lot more patient with him (taking more pitches) and getting in better swings (hitting more balls in the air). Then again, he's faced some really strong offenses so far this year. Anyway, don't waive him in your fantasy league or anything dumb like that.
― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 21:38 (eighteen years ago) link
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Tuesday, 25 April 2006 21:50 (eighteen years ago) link
Recommendation: "This is a kid who throws 97 [mph], with movement," one scout said. "Why is he throwing the No. 8 hitter a change, curve, change? With his stuff, he can blow guys away. It's the best way, if you can do it. And he can do it." Generally speaking, Hernandez used his curveball as his outpitch last season after first setting up hitters with his fastball. He seems, at times, to be working backward from that formula this year. If that is indeed the case, it is easily corrected.
Total bullshit, but post-worthy.
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Friday, 28 April 2006 21:12 (eighteen years ago) link
― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 28 April 2006 21:54 (eighteen years ago) link
― ALLAH FROG (Mingus Dew), Sunday, 30 April 2006 05:08 (eighteen years ago) link
Mariners Notebook: M's look for signs of Felix tipping pitches
Orioles appeared to guess right too many times
By JOHN HICKEY, P-I REPORTER
BALTIMORE -- Is Felix Hernandez tipping his pitches?
The Mariners aren't sure, but they are concerned that opposing hitters may have spotted something to tell what the next pitch is going to be.
The possibility arose during the five innings Hernandez pitched Saturday night in Camden Yards. He gave up four runs and eventually got the win as Seattle rallied for an 8-6 victory. At the same time, he put 13 men on base and was in constant trouble.
"The answer is that we don't know," manager Mike Hargrove said Sunday. "We were talking about that last night. It sure seems like they took a lot of close breaking pitches.
"And they were right on breaking pitches when it wasn't a breaking pitch situation. It got us wondering."
Orioles hitters were right much of the day on fastballs, too, seemingly more than random chance could account for.
Pitching coach Rafael Chaves said that if Hernandez is tipping, it's not something huge. But like at a professional poker table, even a little tip can be a big advantage to the other side.
"I saw some things that had me wondering," Chaves said. "It was nothing so blatant that you could see it right away, nothing where you could say that's the reason why they did so well against him."
Part of the trouble is that the best way to tell if a pitcher is tipping his pitches is from the batter's perspective. You can't see everything from the dugout. And the video of Hernandez from Saturday's game was exclusively from behind him, looking in at the hitter.
"It's easier here in the big leagues for hitters to pick up something the pitcher might be doing," Chaves said, "especially with all the technology available. We'll be looking at whatever we can. I've got some video work ahead of me."
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Monday, 1 May 2006 20:45 (eighteen years ago) link
― jonathan quayle higgins (j.q. higgins), Monday, 1 May 2006 21:00 (eighteen years ago) link
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Monday, 1 May 2006 21:08 (eighteen years ago) link
yes
― jergins (jergins), Monday, 1 May 2006 23:46 (eighteen years ago) link
Felix HernandezWins: 1Losses: 3ERA: 5.06WHIP: 1.61K: 28BB: 12
Livan HernandezWins: 1Losses: 3ERA: 5.49WHIP: 1.50K: 25BB: 9
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 3 May 2006 20:44 (seventeen years ago) link
― c(''c) (Leee), Wednesday, 3 May 2006 23:24 (seventeen years ago) link
― polyphonic (polyphonic), Wednesday, 3 May 2006 23:33 (seventeen years ago) link