Democratic (Party) Direction

“The GOP minibus package on the floor this week is partisan, wrong-headed and dangerous.”

vroom vroom

Οὖτις, so theoretically if enough of the ~70% non-Redenbacher voters vote against him, he loses.

that's right

Here's the total breakdown in District 48:

GOP votes: 53%
Dana Rohrabacher GOP 30.3%
Scott Baugh GOP 16.1%
John Gabbard GOP 3.2%
Paul Martin GOP 1.6%
Shastina Sandman GOP 1.4%
Stelian Onufrei GOP 0.4%

Dem votes: 46.1%
Harley Rouda Dem 17.3%
Hans Keirstead Dem 17.2%
Omar Siddiqui Dem 4.9%
Rachel Payne Dem 2.1%
Michael Kotick Dem 1.6%
Laura Oatman Dem 1.4%
Deanie Schaarsmith Dem 0.8%
Tony Zarkades Dem 0.8%

Other: 0.9%
Brandon Reiser Lib 0.5%
Kevin Kensinger NPP 0.4%

GOP definitely has a registration advantage in this District, and Rohrabacher's had this seat for a very long time, so Dems will have to throw significant resources into the race to try and make up that 7 point deficit from the primary.

Bob Menendez won his primary w/ 62% of the vote vs an unknown who spent no money

i guess the Dems will put up VOTE FOR THE CROOK, IT'S IMPORTANT billboards in NJ

duh

if he loses, they'll deserve it

he'll win

better the crook you know

I'm pretty sure he'll win; the Republican comes off like a real asshole in his ads, and not a let's-party asshole like Menendez but the kind of guy who calls the cops on his next door neighbor if the stereo's still on at 10:05 PM.

i guess the Dems will put up VOTE FOR THE CROOK, IT'S IMPORTANT billboards in NJ

― the ignatius rock of ignorance (Dr Morbius)

it's _new jersey_, where are they going to find an honest candidate?

They count Stacey Abrams among their candidates but she was endorsed by establishment Dems as well, who actually gave her money. I like the idea that they focus on lower level races, the long term vision of that though.

“As of pre-yesterday, OR had more wins than losses in 2018 endorsements, so I wouldn't write them off, just yet. Skewed a bit toward lower level races but part of the idea is to build a bench.”
https://ourrevolution.com/results/
― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Wednesday, June 6,

THat's a fair point, and it may apply to other candidates too. OTOH I don't know what a fair way to measure is -- maybe OR put her over the top or maybe she would have been fine without them.

*gasp* are you admitting that the Dem establishment actually backed a decent candidate

In the Politico exposure they said that the win-rate among candidates more solely backed by OR is 40%

And they didn't just 'branch out' independently, just as one small example they got Bernie's campaign email list to build on.

oh this seems good

https://splinternews.com/democrats-vow-to-bring-back-stupid-and-harmful-spending-1826620867

That article & headline seemed to me like utter propaganda when I read it last night.

- headline seems a little biased
- nobody’s really “bringing back” anything - the GOP has simply exempted the two spending bills they’ve been able to pass this Congress
- entire piece is sourced from like, 3 quotes?
- if you wanted to discourage progressives from showing up to vote in November this is almost exactly what you should be publishing

So, hooray, good job.

if you wanted to discourage progressives from showing up to vote in November this is almost exactly what you should be publishing

so...basically publish nothing critical from now till Nov?

Lol

Maybe just avoid invective-soaked clickbait built on a skeleton of two remarks by old people which in no way constitute a platform plank or policy

if major Dem players are pushing or even just appearing to push a dumb policy it seems worthy of public pushback in order to maaaybe help shame them into not doing that but clearly mileages vary

Christ:

The Democrats haven’t won back the House of Representatives yet, but their leaders in the House already seem desperate to make sure everyone knows that if they do, they’ll do fuck all to put forward a positive vision for the country they want to run.

That won't shame anyone, that will just make Pelosi and the DCCC laugh all the way to the next donor meeting.

- if you wanted to discourage progressives from showing up to vote in November this is almost exactly what you should be publishing

So, hooray, good job.

― El Tomboto

relying on the splinter news constituency to bring about meaningful political change is about as warranted as expecting a tidal wave of 18 year olds to reshape the political map

the spell only works if you constantly say bad things about Republicans. the minute you slip from that and do something harmful like critical thinking, it stops the magic from happening

yeah, platform planks, always the basis of governance

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/superdelegates-house-democrats-630357

expecting a tidal wave of 18 year olds to reshape the political map

in general, people are more likely to vote when they perceive their stake in the outcome is sufficiently large to make the effort. that rarely applies to 18 year olds, whose stake is more about a theoretical future than an immediate present.

what I expect is that the cohort of young people who are already inclined to take this stuff seriously will enter the arena as more activist and radicalized than usual, but not in significantly larger numbers.

what a monster

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/391214-pelosi-medicare-for-all-should-be-evaluated-if-dems-win-house

it's almost like her leadership is guided by what she knows her caucus will support

yeah, it's almost like she's hedging and saying something totally non-committal because she sees writing on the wall

So relieved that party centrists are paying vague lip service to policies they'll never actually support, democracy really works.

Also, you realize that this is only happening because of pushes from the crazy left wing of the party, right?

it's happening because a majority of her caucus supports it. lol @ "never actually support" - if she has the votes, she'll pass it.

which, yes, actually is how democracy is supposed to work

if the donor base supports it

if she has the votes, she'll pass it.

― Οὖτις

also pelosi is a lifelong cat-herder with more ability than most to actually _get_ the votes

itt talk about the nba hall of fame

(not many posts and hasn't been pumped in four years)

You saying Pelosi is a first-ballot HOFer, Clay?

also pelosi is a lifelong cat-herder with more ability than most to actually _get_ the votes

― Arch Bacon (rushomancy)

not to mention that her closest opposition Tim Ryan is less liberal

oh lol leee i didn't get that joke until i just now realize i posted on the wrong thread AS USUAL

Lily Geismer and Matthew Lassiter put the Clinton campaign and the contemporary Democratic Party in long-term historical perspective. https://t.co/gfnoIbqqUJ pic.twitter.com/hGldn8IBoP

— corey robin (@CoreyRobin) June 10, 2018

this sucks

Unsurprising, but disappointing that @SenGillibrand didn’t even bother to talk to nor consider me before endorsing.

You‘d think a progressive leader would at least be interested in how a no-corporate money Bronx Latina triggered the 1st NY-14 primary in 14 years on prog issues. https://t.co/A5ZswcUpW9

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@Ocasio2018) June 11, 2018

Gillibrand is def running for prez in 2020.

that much is clear

This is basically the same thing as when Gillibrand endorsed Cuomo. She's a sitting US Senator who has a vested interest in maintaining working/workable relationships with the people who are likely to win. It sucks, but so does politics.

If the Crowley/O-C race were a coin flip, she might have acted differently.

if you endorse the challenger and they lose, the incumbent hates you; if you endorse the incumbent and they lose, the challenger is not going to hate you quite so much, is a reasonable calculation to make, all else being equal

"reasonable" but also disgusting given that genuinely progressive candidates need all the help they can get

No one succeeds in becoming a major party nominee without engaging in some pretty disgusting calculated behavior. Probably the least compromised nominee in my lifetime was George McGovern, and we all know what happened to him.

I guess I just don't see the Huge Risk here, people endorse opponents and then work together down the line all the time