Dynasty, s3: Canadian Politics 2018

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Ekos is still just showing a tie, although what all the polls are showing is that the NDP has momentum: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/a-volatile-electorate-producing-a-newly-tied-race/ .

I thought this was interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-1990-election-1.4675425 . Surprising now to consider that, in 1990, only two polls were conducted during the election campaign. The frequency of polls today, the increased availability of riding-level info, and the the ability of people to organize over social media means both that strategic voting (with actual strategy) is more feasible than it used to be and also that polls can actually shape the election more than they used to. I think that happened with the 2015 federal election and it might be happening again.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Saturday, 26 May 2018 02:17 (five years ago) link

And that's a tie in the popular vote. When you factor in the efficiency of the Tory vote and the trend that older and richer people can be counted on more reliably to show up on voting day, a tie in the popular vote likely still means more seats for the Tories.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Saturday, 26 May 2018 02:19 (five years ago) link

yeah IDGAF about the popular vote; my original expectation of a Tory minority still feels pretty safe to me

Simon H., Saturday, 26 May 2018 02:37 (five years ago) link

The only thing I'm comfortable predicting right now is that the Liberals will not win the most seats. I didn't feel safe predicting anything before the debate, even that. (My partner can back me up that I raised it as a distinct possibility back then that the NDP could come up the middle and eke out a win.)

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Saturday, 26 May 2018 02:49 (five years ago) link

When is that? If I'm gonna watch I'll need a stiff drink or seven.

Simon H., Saturday, 26 May 2018 02:50 (five years ago) link

I meant the May 7 debate. After that, I started feeling more confident that the Libs were out of the running to win the most seats (but not out of the running to possibly govern as a junior coalition partner). It seemed like a lot of pundits were already expecting an easy Tory win even before then.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Saturday, 26 May 2018 03:02 (five years ago) link

A source tells me the Ontario PCs will roll out new ads tomorrow morning that cite Bob Rae and basically represent NDP government of the 90s like the dustbowl. #ONpoli

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) May 26, 2018


lol I hope the NDP war room is braced for this devastating and not-at-all-desperate salvo

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) May 26, 2018

Simon H., Saturday, 26 May 2018 03:25 (five years ago) link

It's nice for the NDP that Rae was kind enough to switch (rejoin, really) parties over a decade ago.

Simon H., Saturday, 26 May 2018 03:27 (five years ago) link

I'm in the minority in that I tend to think that Rae (like Wynne) was pretty good. I wonder if the NDP might have done better if, any time it came up, they just owned the Rae years, pointed out some of the good things that was done, admitted that it was a mistake to abrogate collective agreements (even if Rae Days were less harsh than Harris's approach to making cuts), and stressed that we are no longer living in 1990-95, especially now that we have voters who were not even born in 1995.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Saturday, 26 May 2018 03:47 (five years ago) link

we are no longer living in 1990-95

Obv, this is the urgent and key point.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Saturday, 26 May 2018 04:05 (five years ago) link

Yeah, I don't think they need to do much to respond to these attacks. They're incredibly weak.

Simon H., Saturday, 26 May 2018 04:08 (five years ago) link

speaking of which did y'all hear Hitler joined the NDP, damn

Simon H., Saturday, 26 May 2018 23:53 (five years ago) link

those ford boys have some chutzpah accusing anyone else of anti semitism

the bhagwanadook (symsymsym), Saturday, 26 May 2018 23:57 (five years ago) link

I just donated to Joel Harden. After reviewing the Lib and NDP platforms, the NDP are easily better on home care and faculty renewal, which are probably the two issues that affect me most directly. In principle, I tend to prefer their views on socializing Hydro and avoiding the P3 model for infrastructure. Harden also identifies as a democratic socialist, citing Libby Davies and Niki Ashton as models.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Sunday, 27 May 2018 15:31 (five years ago) link

Anyone have any thoughts on Trudeau's stepping in to block the Chinese takeover of Aecon? The issue still seems a little nebulous to me. It's a surprisingly protectionist move for him but I can see credible reasons why it might be the right thing to do.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Sunday, 27 May 2018 15:41 (five years ago) link

Final ON debate about to start

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Sunday, 27 May 2018 22:30 (five years ago) link

Wow @ Wynne: "I am sorry that more people don't like me" in her opening statement!

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Sunday, 27 May 2018 22:35 (five years ago) link

Not sure if I can take this much Doug

Simon H., Sunday, 27 May 2018 22:36 (five years ago) link

Live streaming here if you can stomach it

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/how-to-watch-leaders-debate-may-27-1.4679033

Simon H., Sunday, 27 May 2018 22:44 (five years ago) link

Lol "the NDP are running radical activists as candidates who take their inspiration from Adolf Hitler"

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Sunday, 27 May 2018 22:54 (five years ago) link

The Wynne/Horwath dynamic here is incredible, like sisters who hate each other.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Sunday, 27 May 2018 23:05 (five years ago) link

Maybe it's the podcast producer in me but I can't fucking stand crosstalk. I had to turn it off.

Simon H., Sunday, 27 May 2018 23:07 (five years ago) link

"It's insulting that those of us who have worked so hard are now being told that we have to make way for apparently the next generation,” said homeowner Mary Lavin
re: a 0.2% tax on homes worth over $3M that rises to 0.4% on homes worth over $4M: https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/rally-in-point-grey-over-new-school-surtax-1.3947746

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 04:11 (five years ago) link

Like, I'm pretty sure that's how generations work.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 04:12 (five years ago) link

taxes that they have the option to defer, it really should be noted

the bhagwanadook (symsymsym), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 05:19 (five years ago) link

We, citizens of Canada, are now proud owners of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, I would like to congratulate everyone in this thread for this achievement.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 29 May 2018 13:41 (five years ago) link

Wow, fuck Trudeau.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 13:46 (five years ago) link

uuuuuuuuuuugh jfc

Simon H., Tuesday, 29 May 2018 13:50 (five years ago) link

oh man

Nestled in a cosy right of way, with mountain, river and ocean views, and through prime agricultural and dense residential real estate in Vancouver's red-hot housing market! Close to schools, day cares and community centres. (the neighbours can be a little loud, but we find it's easiest just to ignore them.

Simon H., Tuesday, 29 May 2018 16:51 (five years ago) link

fuck trudeau

( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 16:55 (five years ago) link

Seriously, this is the angriest I've ever been at the guy.

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 17:55 (five years ago) link

yeah same.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 29 May 2018 18:26 (five years ago) link

Only redeeming thing that could happen at this point is that they sell it back to the first nations communities but who am I kidding.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 29 May 2018 18:28 (five years ago) link

Canada has been Alberta's oyster for far too long.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 29 May 2018 18:28 (five years ago) link

such an incredibly desperate move from the canadian gov't

it's times like these when i think can the gov't be this dumb or do they know something we don't?

either way, even from a business/oil perspective, this isn't a good move

further proves my point that this country is incredibly divided because oil benefits fewer and fewer people every decade

let's see how long it'll take people to rethink the economy before its collapse

F# A# (∞), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 18:46 (five years ago) link

From the Toronto Star:

But others were quick to criticize the decision. The Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation condemned the move, saying it would saddle taxpayers with costs that should be borne by the private sector.

“This decision represents both a colossal failure of the Trudeau government to enforce the law of the land, and a massive, unnecessary financial burden on Canadian taxpayers,” the federation said in a statement.

“This move sets a terrible precedent and signals to other prospective investors that large projects such as pipelines cannot be built by private industry in Canada,” it said.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May called it a “huge subsidy to fossil fuels.

“Kinder Morgan laughing all the way to the bank. KM gets $4.5 billion and walks away. Canada to raise money to build $7.4 billion project,” May said on Twitter.

You know you made a mistake when May and the CTF kinda agree on something.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 29 May 2018 18:51 (five years ago) link

more than maybe anything else he's done so far, Trudeau deserves to be crushed (electorally speaking) for this

Simon H., Tuesday, 29 May 2018 20:08 (five years ago) link

if there's an event in your city protesting this today, please attend. for vancouverites it's 5.30, next to science world

( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 29 May 2018 20:26 (five years ago) link

MORE: This is what speakers at the #stopkindermorgan rally are seeing from the stage area. @CTVVancouver #bcpoli #canpoli pic.twitter.com/D4qu5pZXDh

— Penny Daflos (@PennyDaflos) May 30, 2018

the bhagwanadook (symsymsym), Wednesday, 30 May 2018 06:16 (five years ago) link

Does the TMX announcement has any influence on the Ontario race?

Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 30 May 2018 20:12 (five years ago) link

I don't think it would (but I'm often wrong). Even if people were to confuse provincial parties with federal ones, the Tories and the NDP - the two frontrunners - both oppose this plan. (Unless maybe the Liberals experience a surge because people in Ontario are excited about this.)

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Thursday, 31 May 2018 00:18 (five years ago) link

Tooclosetocall is apparently projecting that the NDP could win a plurality of votes but the PCs could win a majority government, which seems obscene unless we stop whipping MPPs (but it might be because I am drunk tbf): http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/05/projections-update-for-may-30th-almost.html

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Thursday, 31 May 2018 01:02 (five years ago) link

That would be a perfect hellworld scenario

Simon H., Thursday, 31 May 2018 01:11 (five years ago) link

april 2018 article on how to deal with the energy sector

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-sustainable-way-forward-for-canadas-energy-sector/

Herein lies the real future for both Canada and the United States in energy competitiveness. Rather than building pipelines that will soon be shut, Canadians and Americans should be building a smart grid to carry renewable energy between the two countries. Canada’s renewable energy is vast right across the country. Alberta, fortunately, has vast wind and hydroelectric power potential to enable the province to continue to be a major exporter of energy, only this time with zero-carbon energy that is sustainable for the long haul.

With Donald Trump trying to break the Paris climate agreement and championing fossil-fuel development, it may seem convenient to Canada’s politicians to go along with the U.S. President’s fossil-fuel recklessness. Yet Mr. Trump will be gone and human-induced climate change will remain. Canada is clever enough to look beyond Mr. Trump to its true long-term interests and those of the world.

F# A# (∞), Thursday, 31 May 2018 21:27 (five years ago) link

also canada-us trade wars are a go

https://forexlive.com/news/!/trudeau-says-us-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-totally-unacceptable-20180531

F# A# (∞), Thursday, 31 May 2018 21:28 (five years ago) link

From https://slate.com/business/2018/05/trump-and-nafta-negotiations-arent-going-well-according-to-this-justin-trudeau-story.html

Trudeau told reporters that he thought negotiations over NAFTA were going well enough that last week he suggested a in-person meeting with Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto in Washington to hammer out a final deal. “We already had the bones of a very good agreement for all parties, and I thought it might be opportune for all of us to sit down for a few hours and discuss it,” he said. On Tuesday, Vice President Mike Pence called to say, sure, the White House would host the meeting, but only if Trudeau agreed in advance to add a five-year sunset clause to NAFTA, meaning that the pact would expire after five years unless the U.S., Canada, and Mexico all agreed to renew it. “So I answered that, unfortunately, if that was a precondition to our visit, I was unable to accept — and so we did not go to Washington for that day of negotiations.”

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 31 May 2018 23:35 (five years ago) link

the Tories and the NDP ... both oppose this plan.

After typing this, it occurred to me that this might have been JT's intention: to get the Conservatives and NDP on the same side of an issue and allow him to possibly scoop up a mushy middle that is not ideologically dead-set against either pipelines or state ownership. His Dad did this: the 1974 budget was calculated to be too left-wing for the Tories and not left enough for the socialists, so that an election was forced and the Liberals won a majority. (I have no idea whether this will work or not for JT but just a thought.)

No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Friday, 1 June 2018 16:26 (five years ago) link

jesus fucking christttt

BREAKING: @Kathleen_Wynne will today concede she will no longer be premier after Thursday and urge voters to elect as many @OntLiberal MPPs as possible to prevent giving a majority PC or NDP government a "blank cheque," the @TorontoStar has learned. #onpoli

— Robert Benzie (@robertbenzie) June 2, 2018

Simon H., Saturday, 2 June 2018 15:33 (five years ago) link


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