Dynasty, s3: Canadian Politics 2018

I still refuse to believe we're headed for anything but a PC minority

A PC minority would be a lot better than PC sweep/majority, which is what everyone was anticipating a couple of weeks ago!

An NDP-Lib coalition could possibly emerge in that scenario (?), which might be great but idk if it would work.

And, ha, I guess Horwath agrees with me about her platform: https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/20/ndp-will-block-gas-price-gouging-on-long-weekends-horwath-says.html

oof

and yeah I meant to say that a PC minority feels like the best-case scenario

it's obviously not the worst outcome but I *really* hate the idea of an NDP-Lib coalition, I see that not panning out well down the line

The only thing that troubles me about a coalition is the amount of ignorance and outrage it will whip up from people who have no idea how our government is supposed to work.

Yeah, although that almost makes me want it to happen more. The Liberal-NDP accord in the 80s did some good things, by all accounts, and didn't really hurt either member at all.

i'd prefer to avoid having to unfriend people from facebook when they inevitably let me down.

The reason I dislike a coalition long term is because I want the NDP to distinguish themselves from the Liberals to the extent that coalitions are unthinkable. I fully realize this will never happen.

I would take the coalition over Doug Ford any day, praxis over theory imo.

tbc I agree, the former just seems like a much more likely outcome to me

err I mean the latter. I'm still convinced Ford will win.

The reason I dislike a coalition long term is because I want the NDP to distinguish themselves from the Liberals to the extent that coalitions are unthinkable. I fully realize this will never happen.

Not only is it unlikely to happen but I don't think this should happen in a healthy multi-party Parliamentary democracy. Parties should be distinct enough from each other, and represent different interests, but they should also be capable of working together for the sake of good government imo. I think this is how some of the most successful social democracies work?

What else would you want to see in the ONDP platform, Simon?

Any of the seat projections I've seen do still have the Tories well ahead, btw.

the BC greendp coalition has been working way better than I would have expected, and the centrist whining about evil unelected coalitions has been pretty irrelevant

Horvath is tied with Ford in a poll that came out yesterday. I'm going to take a wild guess that Ford is not especially disciplined or effective campaigning from behind.

Horwath...

I'm sticking with my prediction that's we'll see a depressed turnout, and that tends to favor conservatives

What else would you want to see in the ONDP platform, Simon?

I'm looking through it presently and I think it's pretty good (though the costing "miscalculation" was embarrassing) - my everlasting problem with the NDP is that I don't think they'll ever be able to consistently get elected and actually implement any of it until or unless they embrace what I'm going to call, for lack of a better term, left populism, as well as just generally being more aggressive in their messaging. I want an NDP with the attitude of that UK Labour MP who said she doesn't make friends with Tories. I'm willing to bet Canadians as a whole would actually respect them a hell of a lot more if they did. (This is the main thing I liked about Ashton - very assertive and bold in her messaging.)

Didn't know the next G7 meeting is in Canada. Precisely in beautiful La Malbaie in the capital region of Quebec.

I recommend visiting that place, before or after, the G7.

Significantly after.

Word is going around the Libs or whoever are gonna leak a Doug Ford sex tape tomorrow morning and I hope that I die in my sleep tonight

no

Not a sex tape: https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/24/pc-leader-doug-ford-participated-in-collection-of-bogus-party-memberships-audio-recording-suggests.html

I have been wrong plenty before, but I really don't think this is going to make much of a dent with party faithful. I could see it (at best) depressing Tory turnout a little extra. (Obviously a good thing.)

current projections have douggo winning his riding by just 3% (Wynne's seat looks safer)! According to Ekos, the NDP now has a notable lead, think we'll see polling from them tmrw.

more classic hellworld teasing there

too early to get excited for the possibility of a NDP minority govt?

I would never recommend excitement.

simon otm

Grenier's poll tracker is still heavily favouring the Tories when it comes to seat projections: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/ .

Section 133: "The Acts ... of the Legislature of Quebec shall be printed and published in both those Languages." A plenary session of the Barreau du Quebec just voted to allow the National Assembly to continue ignoring this provision. The bar ought to be ashamed. pic.twitter.com/HUVWCsDzcr

— Matt Harrington (@MattHar65517869) May 25, 2018

also that happened:

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-police-called-after-members-of-far-right-group-storm-into-vices-office

jusqu'ici tout vas bien.

Whoa:

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/25/ndp-surges-ahead-in-poll.html

I've gotten to know pretty much which polls to discount in an American election, but I don't know about polling firms here--legitimate?

"Far right group surges into Vice offices" - I would assume this was just the regular staff?

As always, ignore polls and brace for the worst. Two weeks is a long time.

otoh if this is the best attack line the Tories can find that is indeed a good sign

two days of front page oil wrestling! we haven’t had this spirit here since 1979 ... pic.twitter.com/VVLDUSqJU8

— twelvethirtysix (@1236) May 25, 2018

Forum is a major polling firm and reasonably well-respected, I think, but they did generally show higher Liberal numbers than other firms last time. We'd probably want to wait for a couple more polls showing similar results before we start to buy it.

Ekos is still just showing a tie, although what all the polls are showing is that the NDP has momentum: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/a-volatile-electorate-producing-a-newly-tied-race/ .

I thought this was interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-1990-election-1.4675425 . Surprising now to consider that, in 1990, only two polls were conducted during the election campaign. The frequency of polls today, the increased availability of riding-level info, and the the ability of people to organize over social media means both that strategic voting (with actual strategy) is more feasible than it used to be and also that polls can actually shape the election more than they used to. I think that happened with the 2015 federal election and it might be happening again.

And that's a tie in the popular vote. When you factor in the efficiency of the Tory vote and the trend that older and richer people can be counted on more reliably to show up on voting day, a tie in the popular vote likely still means more seats for the Tories.

yeah IDGAF about the popular vote; my original expectation of a Tory minority still feels pretty safe to me

The only thing I'm comfortable predicting right now is that the Liberals will not win the most seats. I didn't feel safe predicting anything before the debate, even that. (My partner can back me up that I raised it as a distinct possibility back then that the NDP could come up the middle and eke out a win.)

When is that? If I'm gonna watch I'll need a stiff drink or seven.

I meant the May 7 debate. After that, I started feeling more confident that the Libs were out of the running to win the most seats (but not out of the running to possibly govern as a junior coalition partner). It seemed like a lot of pundits were already expecting an easy Tory win even before then.

A source tells me the Ontario PCs will roll out new ads tomorrow morning that cite Bob Rae and basically represent NDP government of the 90s like the dustbowl. #ONpoli

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) May 26, 2018

lol I hope the NDP war room is braced for this devastating and not-at-all-desperate salvo

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) May 26, 2018

It's nice for the NDP that Rae was kind enough to switch (rejoin, really) parties over a decade ago.

I'm in the minority in that I tend to think that Rae (like Wynne) was pretty good. I wonder if the NDP might have done better if, any time it came up, they just owned the Rae years, pointed out some of the good things that was done, admitted that it was a mistake to abrogate collective agreements (even if Rae Days were less harsh than Harris's approach to making cuts), and stressed that we are no longer living in 1990-95, especially now that we have voters who were not even born in 1995.

we are no longer living in 1990-95

Obv, this is the urgent and key point.

Yeah, I don't think they need to do much to respond to these attacks. They're incredibly weak.

speaking of which did y'all hear Hitler joined the NDP, damn

those ford boys have some chutzpah accusing anyone else of anti semitism

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/10/06/doug_ford_booed_for_reference_to_jewish_lawyer_account_dentist.html