Dynasty, s3: Canadian Politics 2018

providing any tangible social good is anathema to the extraction industry

I think natural resource rights are largely under provincial jurisdiction but I'd be for socializing the industry at that level.

I used to sometimes like to defend the NEP as a challop.

Abacus has Ontario PCs and NDP in a tie: http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-as-ndp-momentum-builds

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/horwath-ndp-visits-ottawa-first-time-campaign-1.4671224

Yeah, Joel Harden is a sessional at Carleton, which intrigues me a little.

In the wtf file, btw, this whole story: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/pc-doug-ford-stolen-data-allegations-1.4671063?cmp=rss

After reviewing the ONDP's platform document, I'm honestly pretty unconvinced that the modest tax increases they're proposing - on larger corporations, the top 1% of income earners, and non-resident housing speculators, with a tax freeze on the 'middle class' and a reduction in small business taxes - could pay for the vast spending increases they're also proposing in virtually every area. This is actually a main reason why I've not voted for the ONDP, for the most part. To his credit, Bernie Sanders has been pretty upfront that he would need to raise taxes pretty significantly, including on the middle class, to pay for his platform in the US. That said, if the NDP is the best anti-Ford option, they're the best anti-Ford option. I just don't know what the government would actually look like because I'm not sure it could look like this platform.

Better something you are not sure you could like than straight up something you are going to hate, not that you didn't made the point but let me reiterate.

I agree, but I also agree w/ Sund4r that the ONDP (and the NDP more generally) hedge their bets far too much in terms of policy and I continue to believe that's their greatest liability at the ballot box.

The "you don't have to pick btwn bad and worse" messaging is actually not bad, but I wish there was more distance between their policy planks and the Liberals' to help back up the rhetoric (not to say there are non - pharmacare ain't nothing)

Another poll - by Ipsos, usually a Tory-leaning pollster, I thought? - showing a PC/NDP tie in Ontario, including a tie in the 905 region (!): https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/ .

I still refuse to believe we're headed for anything but a PC minority

A PC minority would be a lot better than PC sweep/majority, which is what everyone was anticipating a couple of weeks ago!

An NDP-Lib coalition could possibly emerge in that scenario (?), which might be great but idk if it would work.

And, ha, I guess Horwath agrees with me about her platform: https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/20/ndp-will-block-gas-price-gouging-on-long-weekends-horwath-says.html

oof

and yeah I meant to say that a PC minority feels like the best-case scenario

it's obviously not the worst outcome but I *really* hate the idea of an NDP-Lib coalition, I see that not panning out well down the line

The only thing that troubles me about a coalition is the amount of ignorance and outrage it will whip up from people who have no idea how our government is supposed to work.

Yeah, although that almost makes me want it to happen more. The Liberal-NDP accord in the 80s did some good things, by all accounts, and didn't really hurt either member at all.

i'd prefer to avoid having to unfriend people from facebook when they inevitably let me down.

The reason I dislike a coalition long term is because I want the NDP to distinguish themselves from the Liberals to the extent that coalitions are unthinkable. I fully realize this will never happen.

I would take the coalition over Doug Ford any day, praxis over theory imo.

tbc I agree, the former just seems like a much more likely outcome to me

err I mean the latter. I'm still convinced Ford will win.

The reason I dislike a coalition long term is because I want the NDP to distinguish themselves from the Liberals to the extent that coalitions are unthinkable. I fully realize this will never happen.

Not only is it unlikely to happen but I don't think this should happen in a healthy multi-party Parliamentary democracy. Parties should be distinct enough from each other, and represent different interests, but they should also be capable of working together for the sake of good government imo. I think this is how some of the most successful social democracies work?

What else would you want to see in the ONDP platform, Simon?

Any of the seat projections I've seen do still have the Tories well ahead, btw.

the BC greendp coalition has been working way better than I would have expected, and the centrist whining about evil unelected coalitions has been pretty irrelevant

Horvath is tied with Ford in a poll that came out yesterday. I'm going to take a wild guess that Ford is not especially disciplined or effective campaigning from behind.

Horwath...

I'm sticking with my prediction that's we'll see a depressed turnout, and that tends to favor conservatives

What else would you want to see in the ONDP platform, Simon?

I'm looking through it presently and I think it's pretty good (though the costing "miscalculation" was embarrassing) - my everlasting problem with the NDP is that I don't think they'll ever be able to consistently get elected and actually implement any of it until or unless they embrace what I'm going to call, for lack of a better term, left populism, as well as just generally being more aggressive in their messaging. I want an NDP with the attitude of that UK Labour MP who said she doesn't make friends with Tories. I'm willing to bet Canadians as a whole would actually respect them a hell of a lot more if they did. (This is the main thing I liked about Ashton - very assertive and bold in her messaging.)

Didn't know the next G7 meeting is in Canada. Precisely in beautiful La Malbaie in the capital region of Quebec.

I recommend visiting that place, before or after, the G7.

Significantly after.

Word is going around the Libs or whoever are gonna leak a Doug Ford sex tape tomorrow morning and I hope that I die in my sleep tonight

no

Not a sex tape: https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/24/pc-leader-doug-ford-participated-in-collection-of-bogus-party-memberships-audio-recording-suggests.html

I have been wrong plenty before, but I really don't think this is going to make much of a dent with party faithful. I could see it (at best) depressing Tory turnout a little extra. (Obviously a good thing.)

current projections have douggo winning his riding by just 3% (Wynne's seat looks safer)! According to Ekos, the NDP now has a notable lead, think we'll see polling from them tmrw.

more classic hellworld teasing there

too early to get excited for the possibility of a NDP minority govt?

I would never recommend excitement.

simon otm

Grenier's poll tracker is still heavily favouring the Tories when it comes to seat projections: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/ .

Section 133: "The Acts ... of the Legislature of Quebec shall be printed and published in both those Languages." A plenary session of the Barreau du Quebec just voted to allow the National Assembly to continue ignoring this provision. The bar ought to be ashamed. pic.twitter.com/HUVWCsDzcr

— Matt Harrington (@MattHar65517869) May 25, 2018

also that happened:

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-police-called-after-members-of-far-right-group-storm-into-vices-office

jusqu'ici tout vas bien.

Whoa:

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/25/ndp-surges-ahead-in-poll.html

I've gotten to know pretty much which polls to discount in an American election, but I don't know about polling firms here--legitimate?

"Far right group surges into Vice offices" - I would assume this was just the regular staff?

As always, ignore polls and brace for the worst. Two weeks is a long time.

otoh if this is the best attack line the Tories can find that is indeed a good sign

two days of front page oil wrestling! we haven’t had this spirit here since 1979 ... pic.twitter.com/VVLDUSqJU8

— twelvethirtysix (@1236) May 25, 2018

Forum is a major polling firm and reasonably well-respected, I think, but they did generally show higher Liberal numbers than other firms last time. We'd probably want to wait for a couple more polls showing similar results before we start to buy it.

Ekos is still just showing a tie, although what all the polls are showing is that the NDP has momentum: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/a-volatile-electorate-producing-a-newly-tied-race/ .

I thought this was interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-1990-election-1.4675425 . Surprising now to consider that, in 1990, only two polls were conducted during the election campaign. The frequency of polls today, the increased availability of riding-level info, and the the ability of people to organize over social media means both that strategic voting (with actual strategy) is more feasible than it used to be and also that polls can actually shape the election more than they used to. I think that happened with the 2015 federal election and it might be happening again.

And that's a tie in the popular vote. When you factor in the efficiency of the Tory vote and the trend that older and richer people can be counted on more reliably to show up on voting day, a tie in the popular vote likely still means more seats for the Tories.

yeah IDGAF about the popular vote; my original expectation of a Tory minority still feels pretty safe to me

The only thing I'm comfortable predicting right now is that the Liberals will not win the most seats. I didn't feel safe predicting anything before the debate, even that. (My partner can back me up that I raised it as a distinct possibility back then that the NDP could come up the middle and eke out a win.)