From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

Wow

BREAKING: Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko, who was reported killed in Kiev, shows up at a news conference in Ukraine.

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 30, 2018

wtflol

Andrei Babchenko, a Russian war vet turned journalist, was murdered in Kyiv a few days ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/30/russia-rejects-ukraine-claim-dissident-journalist-killing-arkady-babchenko

Ukraine and Russia both pointed to each other- though Ukraine apparently seems a bit more motivated about solving this one than Pavel Sheremet. There has been a huge outpouring of horror from journalists across the spectrum.

One slight wrinkle is that he isn’t actually dead.

BABCHENKO AIN’T DEAD, Y'ALL https://t.co/KG4aGMHrRe

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) May 30, 2018

The whole thing was apparently a stunt.

Xp lol

The Ukrainian security services have said they faked the assassination to catch some actual assassins hired to kill him.

He apologised to his wife at the press conference, understandably.

Soon to be ex-wife, I imagine.

A Russian journalist that isn't murdered. This is huge.

They’re currently taking down his memorial plaque.

One of the most amazing details is that it was his wife who found him - covered in blood and pretending to be on the brink of death. She called an ambulance and he ‘died’ on the way to hospital. She literally just found out he wasn’t dead this afternoon.

woah

"I would like to issue condolences to the Babchenko family", said the Ukrainian special forces officer. Then added, after a pause: "But I won't do it. Instead, I will wish him another happy birthday."
After which, Babchenko walks in...
Damn....

But such happy news, though!

— Slava Malamud (@SlavaMalamud) May 30, 2018

After revealing that Babchenko was alive Ukrainian Prosecutor General Lutsenko smugly read tweets from MPs and other criticizing authorities for failing to prevent Babchenko’s death pic.twitter.com/lUABXBh22T

— Ian Bateson (@ianbateson) May 30, 2018

His wife should murder him for real

This entire story is insane, but a big part of me wonders what was going through the mind of the real assassins when they heard someone else had got there first. TBF I'm sketchy on the details of exactly how the faked assassination led to the real conspirators, but apparently they also intercepted a list of 30 other targets.

I would guess that they arrested the potential assassin before staging it and the sting was for whoever paid him.

There are lots of questions to answer though. The police have released a brief clip of people (possibly undercover security agents) handing $30k to the guy who they have arrested - filmed from a camera hidden in the bag of money they gave him.

One of the most amazing details is that it was his wife who found him - covered in blood and pretending to be on the brink of death. She called an ambulance and he ‘died’ on the way to hospital. She literally just found out he wasn’t dead this afternoon.

Is there an account of the staging anywhere?

Nothing cohesive that I have seen yet - just bits and pieces from journalists at the press conference.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2018/05/31/the-man-accused-of-ordering-arkady-babchenko-s-murder-says-he-was-working-for-ukrainian-counterintelligence-all-along

Not sure where to begin with this.

The man accused of being the go-between for the person committing the hit has claimed in court to have been working with the Ukrainian secret service all along. The prosecutor says this doesn’t seem likely.

The accused also says Ukrainian intelligence contracted a man called Alexey Tsymbalyuk to serve as the hitman. Tsymbalyuk is a) a priest, b) an open, seig-heiling, swastika-wearing neo-Nazi and c) a veteran of the war in Donbass - fighting on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainian secret service says this isn’t true.

So this has gone down

https://www.rferl.org/a/constantinople-patriarchate-agrees-to-recognize-independence-of-ukrainian-orthodox-church/29538590.html

o shit is rod dreher gonna convert again

Roffle. He posted some sort of 'uh well I dunno' post when this first came up.

Tymoshenko has turned up the heat in the Ukrainian election race by starting impeachment proceedings against Poroshenko:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ukraine-begins-poroshenko-impeachment-process-190226085343173.html

The scandal (turning a blind eye to one of his pals laundering dirty money through inflated orders of military parts) would generally fall under the category of ‘garden variety crimes’ people would be expected to get away with normally but the timing is a gift to Yulia. Her momentum seems to have been slowing in the polls recently. Also highlights that, despite the monumental risks, there is still a lot of very good, very brave investigative reporting going on.

Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian who starred in a hit comedy show about a normal guy running for president to tackle corruption, and then decided to do it irl, has raced past Tymoshenko and Poroshenko to lead almost all polls by some distance now. It would be an interesting story about a (relatively) down-to-earth David taking on two oligarch Goliaths if it wasn’t for the very strong possibility / probability that he is a front for their eternal frenemy Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who owns the channel the show aired on.

i thought you meant his comedy show was about his decision to do corruption instead, which is sorta sbc retread-y

Nazarbayev is retiring after thirty years running Kazakhstan with immediate effect!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-preview/comedian-set-to-win-first-round-of-ukraine-presidential-vote-idUSKCN1R80KZ

First round of the Ukrainian election is this week. Things are looking up a bit for Poroshenko as Yulia is tanking in the polls and he is probably odds-on to make the second round run-off against Zelenskiy.

Poroshenko is also suing the television station that Zelenskiy’s comedy show airs on for libel, I think. He is trying to hammer the message that his rival is a puppet of the oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, who owns the channel. It’s not hard to see why people are flocking to a comedian with no experience if these stats are correct:

Just 9 percent of Ukrainians have confidence in their national government, the lowest of any electorate in the world, a Gallup poll published in March showed. The global average was 56 percent in 2018. Just 12 percent of Ukrainian adults have confidence in the honesty of elections, while 91 percent believe corruption in their government is widespread.

Looks like Zelenskiy and Poroshenko going through to the run-off if the exit polling is accurate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47767440

It’s a healthy lead for Zelenskiy and idk how many of the Tymoshenko voters are going to vote for Poroshenko in the next round. Could still go either way, though.

Yulia is not convinced.

Юлія Тимошенко та Володимир Зеленський виходять у другий тур, – дані опитувань з 18 тис. дільницьhttps://t.co/sU9sljQQd4 pic.twitter.com/BeYe6ox61R

— ВО Батьківщина (@Batkivshchyna) March 31, 2019

http://www.stefanomorelliphoto.com/project/suspension/

some great photos from Ararat Valley, Armenia – 2017. And unbelievable that the world's most dangerous nuclear power plant (no containment vessels and is situated in a seismic activity zone) is still just about operational

I have really interesting book about Metsamor looking at how it was designed as a utopian city of the future. I’d love to see it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3KB_NFWsAEyqC2.jpg

the nuclear power plant looks stunning, but practically the same model as Chernobyl (but in a quake zone) and still getting life extension permits!

God knows how many of them there are left. This is the book:

https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/U/bo32933520.html

It’s more from an architecture/ town planning perspective but definitely interesting.

The Ukrainian election is getting quite weird.

Poroshenko offered to debate Zelenskiy on TV, the assumption being that his policy experience would show Zelenskiy up as not having a firm grasp on the issues. Zelenskiy has agreed - on the conditions that the debate would be held in front of an audience of tens of thousands at the Olympic stadium and that both participants would have full drug tests before the event.

There is now a proposal that Yulia Tymoshenko, who still thinks the first round of voting was dodgy, should be the debate moderator.

This is full-on politics as show business and a pretty high risk strategy if Zelenskiy wants to be taken seriously but is going to be interesting to see play out.

hahaha what!?

Yep- and Klitchko has weighed in to say the drug tests didn’t conform to proper WADA standards as they both used private labs so he wants to get them redone.

haha YES

that a comedian won the first round suggests no one cares whether he has a firm grasp on the issues. and trying to debate a comedian in front of a live audience seems like a very poor idea

It probably is a poor idea but I don’t think he has any other ones at the moment.

The US/FBI seems like it wants to ride to the rescue though - leaking about an apparent investigation into Zelenskiy’s alleged benefactor. The US and Germany have been dropping heavy hints about wanting people to stick with Poroshenko.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/billionaire-ukrainian-oligarch-ihor-kolomoisky-under-investigation-by-fbi

Election continues to deliver.

“European future of Ukraine” — a group directly associated with Poroshenko’s reelection campaign — is promoting a video in which his opponent & frontrunner Zelenskiy is hit by a truck. The video ends with suggestion he’s a drug addict & the message: “Everyone has their own way.” pic.twitter.com/OCBXy3ZRce

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 11, 2019

The current state of the election can probably best be summarised by that gif of two dogs barking at each other through a retracting fence that stop and turn around as soon as the fence has disappeared and they can see each other face-to-face.

Poroshenko called the '14-14'14' debate for 14:14 on the 14th of April and packed the Olympic stadium with his supporters. Zelenskiy, who had just returned from a meeting with Macron in Paris, didn't turn up. Zelenskiy has called a similar debate on the 19th of April and it seems almost inevitable that Poroshenko won't turn up to that one.

State media, Poroshenko and the Chairman of parliament, Andriy Parubiy, have gone into full Yeltsin-in-96 mode, calling the possibility of Zelenskiy winning an existential threat to Ukraine, a victory for Russia, and end to the march towards progress, etc. Although the odds (the last poll i saw had Zelenskiy on 49% and Poroshenko on 20%) look fairly insurmountable, Yeltsin came back from worse.

Poroshenko falling back on nationalism was inevitable but idk if it is going to be that effective. It's generally assumed that Arsen Avakov, the Interior Minister and godfather of the far-right nationalist Azov battalion supports Zelenskiy and Zelenskiy's patron, Ihor Kolomoskiy, has probably donated more money than anyone to similar militia groups fighting separatists.

State media, Poroshenko and the Chairman of parliament, Andriy Parubiy, have gone into full Yeltsin-in-96 mode, calling the possibility of Zelenskiy winning an existential threat to Ukraine, a victory for Russia, and end to the march towards progress, etc.

So a bit like the Tories and Corbyn then?

lol, i was just thinking that yesterday. The idea that 'managed democracies' are uniquely prone to this kind of this is obviously not true.

Latest polling ahead of Sunday's election:

Poll by KIIS research firm showed Zelenskiy on 72.2 percent of the vote.

Incumbent Petro Poroshenko was on 25.4 percent.https://t.co/IaPkbRDtj7

— Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva) April 16, 2019

Impressive if true as it looks like almost all the undecided voters are breaking for Zelenskiy.

It looks like there will be a debate at the Olympic stadium today after all but the candidates will be on two separate stages. idk how that works but we will find out. The final vote is on Sunday.

The big news yesterday was that Ihor Kolomoisky, the oligarch apparently backing Zelenskiy, won his legal case over the nationalisation of his private bank. He had been accused of pinching billions of dollars of investors’ money and using fraudulent loans to cover it up, and has been in Israel avoiding extradition ever since. A court ruled there wasn’t enough evidence / justification for Poroshenko to have the bank expropriated. It potentially means a massive payout, and the opportunity to return to Ukraine - particularly if his man wins. Poroshenko has suggested returning the bank to Kolomoisky could mean Ukraine defaulting on their international/ IMF debts, whoever wins.

The debate seems like a farce - set up with two stages with rival supporters in ‘fan zones’ taking up one half of the pitch each, with a line of police separating them. The moderator was going to be on the half-way line as well. Eventually Zelenskiy and Poroshenko did share a stage but spent the entire time insulting each other and suggesting the other was a puppet / going to jail. It looks like barely anyone turned up. However, the fact that it took place at all - a first for Ukraine and not going to happen any time soon in Russia - is being seen as a victory of sorts.

This Atlantic Council article blaming ‘the west’ for the rise of Zelenskiy is magnificent, in its own way.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/how-the-west-helped-put-a-comedian-in-reach-of-ukraine-s-presidency

The gist is that investing money in independent investigative journalism is a terrible thing as it exposes corruption and makes everyone unhappy with the government. Better to gloss over the corruption and focus on the reforms.

To reduce corruption, Ukraine needs a competent legal system that does not exist. Without it, the continued focus on exposes of alleged crimes that can’t realistically be punished seems irresponsible and counterproductive. Better to spend the money on an entertaining and educational series like a “CSI Kyiv.”

The problem for both the West and whoever wins is that the ‘reforms’ are even more unpopular than the corruption. Tying IMF loans to conditions like reductions in already terrible pensions, ending fuel subsidies for heating, etc, etc, means that, given a free-ish choice, people are always going to vote for someone else.

Ze has won by a landslide, close to three quarters of the vote and carrying 23 of Ukraine’s 24 regions. The final vote hasn’t finished but Poroshenko has conceded.

I can't wait till someone from UK comedy decides to save us from this rotten and dysfunctional two party system...

Pavel Sheremet, a top Belarussian journalist, was killed with a car bomb in Kyiv this morning. He was driving the car of the head of Ukrainian Pravda, possibly one of the most important papers looking into political and corporate corruption in the wider region. He was a critic of Putin and Lukashenko and a friend of Boris Nemtsov, so fingers will inevitably be pointed in that direction, but in the current situation there is unfortunately no shortage of people with the means or motive to kill investigative reporters.

Three years on, the police have just arrested a metal guitarist and his partner after identifying the distinctive band logo on the former’s hoodie via surveillance footage,

There it is. Ukrainian police name suspects as Yulia Kuzmenko and Andriy Antonenko. They tie Antonenko to the crime via his sweatshirt logo. See above in this thread for background on that. pic.twitter.com/XdRPYv3VaB

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 12, 2019

Both suspects were in a nationalist militia group and Antonenko just got a fawning interview from the US-government-funded Radio Liberty / Svoboda last week. It’s great to see someone potentially being brought to justice for this. It is one of a couple of crimes that had hung over the head of journalists, and broader civil society, for years.

Big new constitutional proposals from Putin - suggesting an absolute two-term maximum on the Presidency and the potential delegation of a lot more power to Parliament. This is a fairly interesting bit of quick analysis / speculation:

It's been a while since a major #Putin policy address has been anything other than boring. Not today. Today, Putin proposed a radical reshaping of #Russia's political system.

Kind of.

THREAD #Послание2020

/1

— Sam Greene (@samagreene) January 15, 2020

Medvedev, who was assumed to be Putin's successor again for years but who has been sidelined a bit following corruption allegations, has resigned as Prime Minister, along with the rest of the government. The expectation is that some will be rehired to their posts but not him.

Rise in nuclear particles detected in Sweden and assessed to be originating from western Russia.

That is similar to how the Chernobyl disaster came to light in 1986. https://t.co/Wk1bsUhLAJ

— Marten Hendriksma (@MHendriksma) June 27, 2020

Anybody got any insight into the Sergey Furgal murder case?

I’ve not seen anything particularly useful.

The allegations stem back, at least in part, to his time as a scrap metal processor. The mother of one of the victims says Furgal refused to pay for a consignment of scrap and sent some heavies round when her son complained, who ended up shooting him. Furgal’s assistant, at the time, was arrested but the case was nixed somewhere along the bureaucratic chain. It’s impossible to say whether that’s true but it’s not far-fetched when it comes to LDPR politicians.

The trouble central government has is that Furgal is popular and a lot of people don’t really care whether he’s a murderer or not. There’s a default assumption that most of the elite were up to no good fifteen years ago and as long as he’s not ripping people off now, that’s the important thing.

The question is why is it being brought up now, which idk if there has been anything insightful on. Old cases do sometimes catch up with politicians but it’s usually when they’re causing a particular nuisance to central government. There was a fairly similar case with Anatoly Bykov from Krasnoyarsk back in May, which again, I haven’t seen much on.