From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

Armenia is politically closer to Russia than Georgia and Azerbaijan are but this isn't really Ukraine Part 2. There's debate over whether Armenia should stay in the Eurasian Union or aim for a closer relationship with the EU, and the protest leaders like Pashinyan are generally on the pro-EU side, but the core drive behind the protests over the last two years have been economic and constitutional, rather than being particularly focused on foreign policy.

There's a pretty strong suspicion, supported by Zakharova posting a fairly welcoming message on Facebook, that Russia used their leverage to get him to resign. The assumption is probably that he, personally, was a lighting-rod for protests but the core support for the ruling party remains strong enough to ride out any challenges.

Thanks! But can foreign policy and economic issues be separated with a country like Armenia? The Eurasian Union doesn't seem to have payed off for Armenia.

The argument that Pashinyan makes is that, economically, Armenia would be better off if it had opted for a trade deal with the EU instead but it's not particularly clear that there has been any significant impact one way or the other on the main flashpoint - which is the price of electricity. There's certainly some pro-EU sentiment in the country but it's nothing like the scale in Ukraine - Pashinyan's bloc got less than 8% at the last election and he was trounced in the Yerevan mayoral vote last year iirc.

Armenia has decent export ties to Germany and Bulgaria but it's a very small economy and can't trade with any of its bordering countries other than Georgia, really, and there's a massive reliance on imports from Russia. There could potentially be an upside to closer EU links but, presented as a binary, the Eurasian Union arguably makes more sense, at least in the medium term.

Georgia has more leeway as they've managed to diversify away from reliance on Russia by trading with Turkey, which isn't an option for Armenia.

And for Armenia there's also the problem with Nagorno-Karabakh and the hostilities with oil rich Azerbaijan. It makes sense for Armenia to be close to Russia, sure. But membership of the Eurasian Union can't look too good right now to Moldova, Tadjikistan, etc.

Tajikistan will probably move closer to the Eurasian Union but stop short of full membership. Moldova has done the same recently - opt for Observer status instead of joining. They both have alternative options but it’s worth remembering how important remittances from immigrants working in Russia are to both economies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/armenias-revolution-enters-new-stage-as-russia-begins-to-take-notice/2018/04/26/028f0fac-4957-11e8-8082-105a446d19b8_story.html?utm_term=.6445e712d9e7

It looks like there is now a non-negligible chance that the new PM might not come from the ruling party - which would require a few government members to vote against their parliamentary bloc.

If that happened, the new PM is most likely to come from the oil oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan’s party. Tsarukyan has always had fairly close ties to the senior leadership within the government though.

Get an inside look at post-Soviet disputed territories – now in English thanks to @Hromadske https://t.co/jZHX3spH1w

— Eilish Hart (@EilishHart) May 7, 2018

Serge Tankian from SOAD was the star guest at the rally in Yerevan last night supporting Pashinyan for PM.

The parliamentary vote is today, I think, and Pashinyan rates his chances “at 95%”. His rise, even over the last week, has been astonishing. There are probably too many people on the street in Yerevan for him not to be made PM though how that translates in the long-term remains to be seen.

He was right!

Parliament votes:
Yes - 59
No - 42
Nikol Pashinyan elected Prime Minister

— EVN Report (@evn_report) May 8, 2018

Wow

BREAKING: Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko, who was reported killed in Kiev, shows up at a news conference in Ukraine.

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 30, 2018

wtflol

Andrei Babchenko, a Russian war vet turned journalist, was murdered in Kyiv a few days ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/30/russia-rejects-ukraine-claim-dissident-journalist-killing-arkady-babchenko

Ukraine and Russia both pointed to each other- though Ukraine apparently seems a bit more motivated about solving this one than Pavel Sheremet. There has been a huge outpouring of horror from journalists across the spectrum.

One slight wrinkle is that he isn’t actually dead.

BABCHENKO AIN’T DEAD, Y'ALL https://t.co/KG4aGMHrRe

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) May 30, 2018

The whole thing was apparently a stunt.

Xp lol

The Ukrainian security services have said they faked the assassination to catch some actual assassins hired to kill him.

He apologised to his wife at the press conference, understandably.

Soon to be ex-wife, I imagine.

A Russian journalist that isn't murdered. This is huge.

They’re currently taking down his memorial plaque.

One of the most amazing details is that it was his wife who found him - covered in blood and pretending to be on the brink of death. She called an ambulance and he ‘died’ on the way to hospital. She literally just found out he wasn’t dead this afternoon.

woah

"I would like to issue condolences to the Babchenko family", said the Ukrainian special forces officer. Then added, after a pause: "But I won't do it. Instead, I will wish him another happy birthday."
After which, Babchenko walks in...
Damn....

But such happy news, though!

— Slava Malamud (@SlavaMalamud) May 30, 2018

After revealing that Babchenko was alive Ukrainian Prosecutor General Lutsenko smugly read tweets from MPs and other criticizing authorities for failing to prevent Babchenko’s death pic.twitter.com/lUABXBh22T

— Ian Bateson (@ianbateson) May 30, 2018

His wife should murder him for real

This entire story is insane, but a big part of me wonders what was going through the mind of the real assassins when they heard someone else had got there first. TBF I'm sketchy on the details of exactly how the faked assassination led to the real conspirators, but apparently they also intercepted a list of 30 other targets.

I would guess that they arrested the potential assassin before staging it and the sting was for whoever paid him.

There are lots of questions to answer though. The police have released a brief clip of people (possibly undercover security agents) handing $30k to the guy who they have arrested - filmed from a camera hidden in the bag of money they gave him.

One of the most amazing details is that it was his wife who found him - covered in blood and pretending to be on the brink of death. She called an ambulance and he ‘died’ on the way to hospital. She literally just found out he wasn’t dead this afternoon.

Is there an account of the staging anywhere?

Nothing cohesive that I have seen yet - just bits and pieces from journalists at the press conference.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2018/05/31/the-man-accused-of-ordering-arkady-babchenko-s-murder-says-he-was-working-for-ukrainian-counterintelligence-all-along

Not sure where to begin with this.

The man accused of being the go-between for the person committing the hit has claimed in court to have been working with the Ukrainian secret service all along. The prosecutor says this doesn’t seem likely.

The accused also says Ukrainian intelligence contracted a man called Alexey Tsymbalyuk to serve as the hitman. Tsymbalyuk is a) a priest, b) an open, seig-heiling, swastika-wearing neo-Nazi and c) a veteran of the war in Donbass - fighting on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainian secret service says this isn’t true.

So this has gone down

https://www.rferl.org/a/constantinople-patriarchate-agrees-to-recognize-independence-of-ukrainian-orthodox-church/29538590.html

o shit is rod dreher gonna convert again

Roffle. He posted some sort of 'uh well I dunno' post when this first came up.

Tymoshenko has turned up the heat in the Ukrainian election race by starting impeachment proceedings against Poroshenko:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ukraine-begins-poroshenko-impeachment-process-190226085343173.html

The scandal (turning a blind eye to one of his pals laundering dirty money through inflated orders of military parts) would generally fall under the category of ‘garden variety crimes’ people would be expected to get away with normally but the timing is a gift to Yulia. Her momentum seems to have been slowing in the polls recently. Also highlights that, despite the monumental risks, there is still a lot of very good, very brave investigative reporting going on.

Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian who starred in a hit comedy show about a normal guy running for president to tackle corruption, and then decided to do it irl, has raced past Tymoshenko and Poroshenko to lead almost all polls by some distance now. It would be an interesting story about a (relatively) down-to-earth David taking on two oligarch Goliaths if it wasn’t for the very strong possibility / probability that he is a front for their eternal frenemy Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who owns the channel the show aired on.

i thought you meant his comedy show was about his decision to do corruption instead, which is sorta sbc retread-y

Nazarbayev is retiring after thirty years running Kazakhstan with immediate effect!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-preview/comedian-set-to-win-first-round-of-ukraine-presidential-vote-idUSKCN1R80KZ

First round of the Ukrainian election is this week. Things are looking up a bit for Poroshenko as Yulia is tanking in the polls and he is probably odds-on to make the second round run-off against Zelenskiy.

Poroshenko is also suing the television station that Zelenskiy’s comedy show airs on for libel, I think. He is trying to hammer the message that his rival is a puppet of the oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, who owns the channel. It’s not hard to see why people are flocking to a comedian with no experience if these stats are correct:

Just 9 percent of Ukrainians have confidence in their national government, the lowest of any electorate in the world, a Gallup poll published in March showed. The global average was 56 percent in 2018. Just 12 percent of Ukrainian adults have confidence in the honesty of elections, while 91 percent believe corruption in their government is widespread.

Looks like Zelenskiy and Poroshenko going through to the run-off if the exit polling is accurate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47767440

It’s a healthy lead for Zelenskiy and idk how many of the Tymoshenko voters are going to vote for Poroshenko in the next round. Could still go either way, though.

Yulia is not convinced.

Юлія Тимошенко та Володимир Зеленський виходять у другий тур, – дані опитувань з 18 тис. дільницьhttps://t.co/sU9sljQQd4 pic.twitter.com/BeYe6ox61R

— ВО Батьківщина (@Batkivshchyna) March 31, 2019

http://www.stefanomorelliphoto.com/project/suspension/

some great photos from Ararat Valley, Armenia – 2017. And unbelievable that the world's most dangerous nuclear power plant (no containment vessels and is situated in a seismic activity zone) is still just about operational

I have really interesting book about Metsamor looking at how it was designed as a utopian city of the future. I’d love to see it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3KB_NFWsAEyqC2.jpg

the nuclear power plant looks stunning, but practically the same model as Chernobyl (but in a quake zone) and still getting life extension permits!

God knows how many of them there are left. This is the book:

https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/U/bo32933520.html

It’s more from an architecture/ town planning perspective but definitely interesting.

The Ukrainian election is getting quite weird.

Poroshenko offered to debate Zelenskiy on TV, the assumption being that his policy experience would show Zelenskiy up as not having a firm grasp on the issues. Zelenskiy has agreed - on the conditions that the debate would be held in front of an audience of tens of thousands at the Olympic stadium and that both participants would have full drug tests before the event.

There is now a proposal that Yulia Tymoshenko, who still thinks the first round of voting was dodgy, should be the debate moderator.

This is full-on politics as show business and a pretty high risk strategy if Zelenskiy wants to be taken seriously but is going to be interesting to see play out.

hahaha what!?

Yep- and Klitchko has weighed in to say the drug tests didn’t conform to proper WADA standards as they both used private labs so he wants to get them redone.

haha YES

that a comedian won the first round suggests no one cares whether he has a firm grasp on the issues. and trying to debate a comedian in front of a live audience seems like a very poor idea

It probably is a poor idea but I don’t think he has any other ones at the moment.

The US/FBI seems like it wants to ride to the rescue though - leaking about an apparent investigation into Zelenskiy’s alleged benefactor. The US and Germany have been dropping heavy hints about wanting people to stick with Poroshenko.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/billionaire-ukrainian-oligarch-ihor-kolomoisky-under-investigation-by-fbi

Election continues to deliver.

“European future of Ukraine” — a group directly associated with Poroshenko’s reelection campaign — is promoting a video in which his opponent & frontrunner Zelenskiy is hit by a truck. The video ends with suggestion he’s a drug addict & the message: “Everyone has their own way.” pic.twitter.com/OCBXy3ZRce

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 11, 2019

The current state of the election can probably best be summarised by that gif of two dogs barking at each other through a retracting fence that stop and turn around as soon as the fence has disappeared and they can see each other face-to-face.

Poroshenko called the '14-14'14' debate for 14:14 on the 14th of April and packed the Olympic stadium with his supporters. Zelenskiy, who had just returned from a meeting with Macron in Paris, didn't turn up. Zelenskiy has called a similar debate on the 19th of April and it seems almost inevitable that Poroshenko won't turn up to that one.

State media, Poroshenko and the Chairman of parliament, Andriy Parubiy, have gone into full Yeltsin-in-96 mode, calling the possibility of Zelenskiy winning an existential threat to Ukraine, a victory for Russia, and end to the march towards progress, etc. Although the odds (the last poll i saw had Zelenskiy on 49% and Poroshenko on 20%) look fairly insurmountable, Yeltsin came back from worse.

Poroshenko falling back on nationalism was inevitable but idk if it is going to be that effective. It's generally assumed that Arsen Avakov, the Interior Minister and godfather of the far-right nationalist Azov battalion supports Zelenskiy and Zelenskiy's patron, Ihor Kolomoskiy, has probably donated more money than anyone to similar militia groups fighting separatists.

State media, Poroshenko and the Chairman of parliament, Andriy Parubiy, have gone into full Yeltsin-in-96 mode, calling the possibility of Zelenskiy winning an existential threat to Ukraine, a victory for Russia, and end to the march towards progress, etc.

So a bit like the Tories and Corbyn then?