Dynasty, s3: Canadian Politics 2018

I also really think Trudeau will be PM forever, for better or for worse. He's up in some polls now, and the Cons have a difficult electoral map unless they show some ability to break into Canada's three largest cities. The LIbs should be able to at least get a minority gov't.

I also really think Trudeau will be PM forever, for better or for worse.

...barring a major scandal or a significant economic downturn, neither of which I would rule out.

Yeah I guess Sylvester is the Vision-affiliated "independent," and maybe COPE will run a mayor too...but nobody approaches Carr's record or name recognition, and I doubt the COPE brand means much these days. I think she can win votes from Westside NIMBYs as well as the left.

yeah that's what it took to get the Liberals out last time xp

I am not too thrilled about any of the apparent choices for mayor, I might just leave that ballot blank and just vote for council

xps. ok, good info, bud. you're talking me off the ledge here lol

I'm thinking a COPEish person like Jean Swanson, a Vision affiliated independent, and possibly OneCity fielding a candidate, plus the Greens obv. There's no way in that situation I see a good outcome

Totally understand having no hope for this country politically speaking. Trudeau's a mess but he can hold on. I doubt the BC Liberals will return soon. We have a winnable electoral reform referendum. And I'm hopeful about Vancouver. There will not be more than one candidate for mayor left of Vision. It's going to be either Carr or someone who has not yet declared and has barely been mentioned yet. The NPA are not looking good imo. These density bros think they can win via social media but their base has nothing to do with Twitter and will recoil with horror at talk of rezoning west of Granville.

Sorry was going to put "But" at the start of my second sentence.

good breakdown of that issue + likely outcomes

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156189465332822&id=516917821

This is clearly coming from one ideological perspective but it is still helpful. I get that Notley is Premier of Alberta and is not going to actively sabotage her province's main industry but I had been confused about why she and the Alberta NDP are this aggressively invested in getting a pipeline built. If it's true that capital ("oil barons") had been threatening to strike if the NDP increased their royalties, I wonder what would have happened if the NDP just called their bluff and went ahead. Surely the only reason they were doing business in AB in the first place was because it was extremely profitable for them (even with a modest increase in taxes and/or royalties), which they would miss out on if they pulled out altogether.

yeah I mean obviously he's a comrade and all but I think the predictions for how this plays out are pretty sound

Jean Swanson isn't running for mayor (unfortunately). I really doubt OneCity will. I'm glad the continued success of some nominally left neoliberal government can get you off the ledge! It is better than the alternative, despite everything

These parties are all being very careful about this election. There's a lot of talk between them. Predict Swanson will join COPE, giving them a bit of energy again. And also predict a familiar NDP-related person will emerge as an independent as the only candidate left of Vision for mayor. Or Carr will run unopposed. Whichever, all the parties will support.

xp. i work with someone who is heavily involved with OneCity, guess I could ask her

There's an open secret about who's going to run if Carr won't.

.....

well, i hear the vp of the bc ndp has been working with the three left-of-vision parties and they're close to supporting a labour-backed candidate for mayor

and indeed I see that she just shared this on Twitter.

I am happy to share that I am engaged in dialogue with Vancouver's civic parties and regional stakeholders as I explore running for mayor in 2018 as a progressive unity candidate. Discussions so far are encouraging.#StayTuned #vanpoli #vanelxnhttps://t.co/vSQ4475AqM

— Morgane Oger (@MorganeOgerBC) April 17, 2018

cool!

My whole life I have believed the equation was that all Canadians care about the other Canadian provinces except the maritimes, no one cares about the maritimes unfortunately.

Totally understand having no hope for this country politically speaking. Trudeau's a mess but he can hold on. I doubt the BC Liberals will return soon. We have a winnable electoral reform referendum. And I'm hopeful about Vancouver. There will not be more than one candidate for mayor left of Vision. It's going to be either Carr or someone who has not yet declared and has barely been mentioned yet. The NPA are not looking good imo. These density bros think they can win via social media but their base has nothing to do with Twitter and will recoil with horror at talk of rezoning west of Granville.

― everything, Tuesday, April 17, 2018 1:59 PM (eight hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Just you wait for the CAQ and their right wing nationalist islamophobic brand win in Quebec + Ford in Ontario. This is the mess awaiting us.

The possibility of Ford winning in Ontario scares the shit out of me, and I just wish that everyone in the province would vote strategically, rather than ideologically, this time.

I was just talking to my partner and we feel the same way, except that we're not sure what the strategic choice would be, or even the ideological one, for that matter.

Legault is going to be Duplessis redux, down to his ambiguous brand of nationalism that caters to the PQ base's barely contained xenophobia even as he shies away from full separatism because granting undivided attention to statistically insignificant Muslim practices is the key to contemporary politics.

Btw, I care more about the Maritimes than I do about Saskatchewan. Alberta would leave me indifferent if it didn't irritate me most of the time.

The possibility of Ford winning in Ontario scares the shit out of me, and I just wish that everyone in the province would vote strategically, rather than ideologically, this time.

I'm not convinced there *is* a strategic vote this time out. I'm not advocating for giving up but you might want to mentally prepare yourself for the possibility that we're fucked.

Kevin Taft's take on what's going on with Notley: https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/04/19/opinion/kevin-taft-what-turned-rachel-notley-crusading-critic-big-oil-crusader

that's a good piece

That's a great piece. The royalties almost beggar belief.

drill baby drill eh

meanwhile mining companies are hiring environmental science grads from the university of waterloo

wonder what they're up to

Wow:
http://pressprogress.ca/a-leaked-memo-exposed-the-toronto-suns-secret-plan-to-manufacture-a-right-wing-culture-war/
http://www.canadalandshow.com/toronto-sun-provincial-election-plans/

fuck postmedia forever

article about the ndp and oil in jacobin:

https://jacobinmag.com/2018/04/the-ndps-oil-problem

singh has legit been a disappointment on KM

wish ashton had won :c

Ugh: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-campaign-fundraising-party-donations-1.4638698?cmp=rss

As someone who voted for him, I agree that Singh is a little disappointing on KM btw.

I too wish Ashton had won (I voted for her and the lefties I run with endorsed her) but I'm not sure she wouldn't have capitulated on KM

Between this and the fucker who brandished a nazi flag during the May Day protest, I'm pretty pissed at my city right now: http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/major-neo-nazi-figure-recruiting-in-montreal

One person does not make a city.

Of course, of course. If anything, the response has been exactly as it should. But I'm still a little disappointed.

Also, so long, Amir Khadir, I disliked lot of the posturing during the 2012 student protests and I can't shake the pro-indépendance stance of the party he belonged to but here's to someone who fully believed in equality. Plus you know, being a MPP in Quebec with that name was huge deal for lots of immigrant kids who dreamed of being in politics in 2008. I remember I was having a beer with a bud at Dieu Du Ciel! when he showed up to talk to people, beautiful day, my bud knew him well from the students protests and we discussed Krugman, I was just starting to read on economics and he was so sweet to point me to some directions and authors I would potentially enjoy. Shortly after he started speaking to another group of young students and he told 'you know I come from a country, Iran, that created the most beautiful thing in society', the students were curious to know what it was, he answered 'taxes', I thought that was brillant, and I told him to never say that on television and he laughed real hard.

Sometimes I do feel like the best and brightest and wisest of canadian politics are these unambitious MPPs.

Well put. He will be greatly missed indeed.

published a couple days ago

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/technology/article-canada-facing-brain-drain-as-young-tech-talent-leaves-for-silicon/

Canada’s best and brightest computer engineering graduates are leaving for jobs in Silicon Valley at alarmingly high rates, fuelling a worse “brain drain” than the mass exodus by Canadian doctors two decades ago, according to a new study.

...

(O)ne-in-four recent science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) graduates from three of the country’s top universities – University of Waterloo, University of British Columbia and U of T – were working outside Canada.

The numbers were higher for graduates of computer engineering and computer science (30 per cent), engineering science (27 per cent) and software engineering, where two out three graduates were working outside Canada, mostly in the United States. Nearly 44 per cent of those working abroad were employed as software engineers, with Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon listed as top employers.

...

“When we see certain fields where upward of 65 per cent of a graduating class are leaving for the U.S., I think there should be concerns there that our homegrown companies aren’t even going to be able to access some of that talent. If we found in the 1960s that 60 per cent of our auto workers were leaving to work in other countries … we probably would have held a royal commission.”

...

A separate 2017 survey by students from that year’s graduating class of the University of Waterloo systems design engineering program found that 60 per cent were moving to the United States for work. “There’s a premium on California and New York jobs” among graduating students, said Joey Loi, one of the 2017 survey’s authors, who himself moved to San Francisco to work for Dropbox.

...

surprise, surprise

i remember a couple years ago saying my friends were all moving to the u.s. because they couldn't find work in canada and one ilxor had some deranged comments to say about that -- i don't remember your name unfortunately

but just to clarify, there *are* jobs in canada, but they're all low-paying ones and doing menial tasks, which a lot of people refuse to do, so, yes, they stay unemployed looking for better opportunities. this is what they mean when they say "i can't find work"

also, i was reading this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/06/opinion/jordan-peterson-canadian-deference.html

and a few things ring true:

Canada is home to many more Jordan Petersons than Justin Trudeaus. Mr. Peterson is — to use one of his favorite terms — something of a national archetype, the default setting of the Canadian male: a dull but stern dad, who, under a facade of apparent normalcy and common sense, conceals a reserve of barely contained hostility toward anyone who might rock the boat. To these types, those who make a fuss are bothersome and ignorant at best, and probably dangerous and destructive too.

...

Canadian conservatism is not brash. It is not belligerent, it is not loud. It is not Fox News. But our most popular columnists all deliver the same message: Things are the way they are for a reason. Those who agitate for change are stepping out of line.

That Jesse Brown thing was so absurd. The dude does some good work at times but wtf when he gets on this shit. I can't imagine the NYT printing something like that about any other country, even written by one of its citizens: picking one infamous person, arguing that he somehow epitomizes the character of the country as a whole, and then 'backing this up' with a bunch of random and cherry-picked incidents from national history, most of which hardly reveal anything unique about Canada.

I'll read the first article but I for one am doing my part to reverse the brain drain trend at the end of the month.

that's fair

for what it's worth, i somehow feel like i am more open minded than vancouverites when i go back, and i attribute this to my living in los angeles so long

it's kind of cliche to say, but there is a "small town mentality" that is still very persistent at least among the people i encounter -- they don't think "big"

and what i mean by that is they deal with things at a much smaller scale (with reason, i understand, because canada has a smaller population), but because of it they miss some important nuances

and of course, fiscally, canada remains a conservative country

That Jesse Brown thing was so absurd. The dude does some good work at times but wtf when he gets on this shit. I can't imagine the NYT printing something like that about any other country, even written by one of its citizens: picking one infamous person, arguing that he somehow epitomizes the character of the country as a whole, and then 'backing this up' with a bunch of random and cherry-picked incidents from national history, most of which hardly reveal anything unique about Canada.

― No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Saturday, May 5, 2018 2:37 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I don't even think Peterson is the epitome of Canadian conservatism, he represents an unorganised new faction at best. Also, not exactly sure that there is more 'Petersons than Trudeaus' in Canada, that statement seems out of nowhere and demands statistics. Love Brown too, I support Canadaland on Patreon, he is doing mostly fantastic work and whatnot. Perhaps Brown is the one who epitomizes Canada the best: brillant and sensible man, who from time to time just needs to bash Canada for not being like the US enough. Which ties to the brain drain that's also been discussed.

Also lots of example of idealism over the past 10 years in Canada, starting with Idle No More.

Traditionally, a real Canadian conservative is closer to a pre-brexit british tory than Peterson and his angry rhetoric and his inability to keep calm.

I have the dull face of Harper printed on my eyes from 9 years of him being the head of government + 4 elections, it's going to take more than one book and a social media phenomena to have the archetype of Canadian conservatism to be replaced.

Definitely agree

xp

i mean, if you don't think this describes stephen harper:

a dull but stern dad, who, under a facade of apparent normalcy and common sense, conceals a reserve of barely contained hostility toward anyone who might rock the boat. To these types, those who make a fuss are bothersome and ignorant at best, and probably dangerous and destructive too.

we are clearly living under two different cultures/canadas, because these people are quite common or at least the canadians around me and i have encountered them quite often