the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

trying to game the Brexit referendum is just terrible politics and they have to keep being told

Long post coming up with the caveat that I think Owen Smith is a slimy fuck with some toxic opinions whose motivations are unlikely to be just about Brexit here. There isn't actually anything objectionable in the article itself - it's less about gaming the referendum result and more about acknowledging that public opinion can and will change and if you think it's going to be completely disastrous for the country (especially in poorer Leave-voting areas) then you have a duty and a right to keep campaigning for it. And taking a pro-Brexit position is probably incompatible with being Northern Ireland Secretary, given the obvious dangers and the fact that NI overwhelmingly voted Remain.

The problem is that public opinion hasn't changed enough. Most polling indicates that "stop Brexit" is a minority position once you've taken into account the committed Leavers plus the "I voted Remain but let's accept the will of the people and get on with it" crew. That second category is mushy obviously and most of it would probably back Remain again but you wouldn't bet the house (or more) on it. On the other hand, if Corbyn proved anything in 2017 it's that "people won't vote for that" could well be wrong, you just don't know until you give them the option.

Thing is I just don't think that the "stop Brexit" crew have really thought through the consequences of a second referendum with the same result. That would be it, it would be double-stamped, Britain would be out of the EU and it would be very difficult to see any way back. As things stand, if demographic changes (a euphemistic way of saying 'Brexiters dying off') continue then it's pretty easy to foresee a scenario in which Britain demands to return to the EU after a decade or so. This is especially the case when you imagine the kinds of well-funded Return campaigns that will be set up, and the likelihood of Brexit leading to economic disaster.

Another obstacle is Labour MPs in Leave-voting areas, many of whom are worried about their seats and aren't exactly fans of Corbyn in any case. They are likely to be a bigger obstacle than Corbyn's personal Euroscepticism (although I maintain that he doesn't really seem to care much about the issue one way or the other). The fact that the Conservative Party themselves, even the Remainy bits, are also an obstacle should go without saying. Obviously there's the rage of the hardened Brexiters (but fuck those guys) and the bigger issue of a betrayal narrative. If Remain wins by a narrow margin, what's to stop furious demands for a third referendum? It would go on and on.

Agreed with xyzzz that the row over the mural is worse and more significant. The fact that it'll be used against him by internal opponents doesn't and shouldn't matter (stopped clocks and all that). That Corbyn himself is antisemitic I very much doubt but some of the people he's associated with clearly are (in a largely unacknowledged way, I suspect) and as others have said he needs to jettison them. Either he didn't look closely enough at the mural, which isn't great for an elected representative, or he's including overt antisemitism within the grounds of free speech, which is equally problematic. I doubt the building owners were exactly thrilled to have it on their wall either.

What this all adds up to is probably Corbyn's Achilles heal, too much tolerance and loyalty to people he considers to be on his side, (even when they're crazy bigots and hugely damaging by association), combined with a naive bluntness in the way he deals with internal opponents. I suppose it's the difference between healthy and unhealthy dissent - I'm perfectly willing to believe there's something unhealthy going on with Owen Smith - but a public dressing down might have been better than a sacking at this point. Not that Smith is a big enough beast to make a martyr of course.

I think every poster on here (myself included) has made a "I don't think Corbyn himself is an anti-semite" disclaimer, and the thing is, whether he is in his heart shouldn't really matter: enabling anti-semitic propaganda and tolerating anti-semitic discourse does damage regardless of what he himself thinks about the issue.

Newspapers that splashed George Soros conspiracy theories all over their front page also going big on this can fuck off though.

your 2nd, 3rd and 4th paragraphs there Matt sum up most of the reasons why i think campaigning for another referendum is terrible politics at the moment

I think if a 2nd ref was either a remain win or a loss, both scenarios would be bad for different reasons. It is just a complete no-win bollox of an idea.

This is beside the point I suppose but I'm shocked that mural was painted in London nearly six years ago - and that most of us seem to only be hearing about it now.

yeah erm.. good work by Corbyn to selflessly highlight this outrage by sarcastically defending it.

Newspapers that splashed George Soros conspiracy theories all over their front page also going big on this can fuck off though.

Nick Timothy:

I can say categorically there is no way the Tory Parliamentary Party would let their leader ever get away with justifying or defending racism. This has nothing to do with elections and everything to do with a simple moral call. Do you think his actions were acceptable?

— Nick Timothy (@NickJTimothy) March 23, 2018

well Johnson isn't leader tbf

there was a quite funny bit on last night's Any Questions when Suella Fernandes said something like:"As a Conservative I stand for equality and equal chances for all in society.." to a spontaneous outburst of crowd laughter, similar to when Rudd said:"judge us on our record..".

Xp Nick Timothy wrote the Soros article, and spent the day retweeting people saying he was a good friend to the Jewish community.

xp she’s clearly never posted an article on ConservativeHome about what the Conservatives can do to attract BAME voters. Comments are near-uniformly ugly and increasingly so over time.

This is quite funny/painful. https://twitter.com/hashtag/ToryCanvass?src=tren

jesus god almighty

Got my picture with @michaelgove I can die happy!! #ToryCanvass #TeamTory pic.twitter.com/bt7ha66BKg

— Cameron Bradbury (@PrinceCameron29) March 21, 2018

i think it really speaks to the appeal of the Tory party that all these working class kids are so excited to have their picture took with their heroes

cursed account

https://i.imgur.com/hyCJ0CJ.png

the saddest yaaaaaas

@PrinceCameron29!

If you click on the hashtag #MaysGays it's 99% him.

harry cole has just outed theresa may

A late night statement from campaigning lawyers Bindmans - who refused to talk to the Sun last night - said the gentleman in question was not out. But claims have been met with incredulity in No10. Especially given he was at their Pride party with the PM: pic.twitter.com/GEIhSd7cZM

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) March 24, 2018

Have you seen Corbyn's statement this week on the mural, Matt? I'm not saying it will close the matter, but it does rework your options there.

A second referendum isn't "the same referendum again", of course - a lot of the hell we're in is due to the freedom of various oneiromancers to say that clearly what people were voting for was... which is due to the terrible question the first time.

I don't think you can do it without more than one option and some kind of transferred vote, which is to say that I don't think you can do it.

second statement still wasn’t strong enough imo. he should have apologised

I am perplexed as to why the referendum wasn’t covered by the same strict broadcasting codes as general elections and have repeatedly thought that the outcome might’ve been VERY different had that been the case.

There is no doubt in my mind that: 1) Corbyn is not antisemitic and 2) that he saw and yet did also overlook the antisemitism in the picture, in the relative privacy of posting a comment from his home. After all this is a guy who was extra tight on Russia and was extremely careful in his statements, and to not go along with the mob.

And also 3) that he is good at listening to members/ppl on his side who aren't happy and that in time he will see this as an issue that *is* a problem on the left (as on all sides), as important as racism - and that care and attention will be paid to it. I get the feeling it is but maybe not to the extent as anti-racism, for example.

Very much struggling to care about Owen Smith/Brexit.

I agree with the people saying that Corbyn seems to just not get it at some fundamental level wrt anti-semitism. I'd like to think he's capable of evolution but two statements put out in response to this incident aren't encouraging. The whole hoo-hah following Ken Livingstone's Hitler comments is nearly two years ago now, it's not like Corbyn hasn't had time to get up to speed.

that he is good at listening to members/ppl on his side who aren't happy and that in time he will see this as an issue that *is* a problem on the left

I think there are a depressing number of people on his side and in his inner circle who also don't get it, though. And one of Corbyn's most pronounced traits seems to be *not* changing his mind on stuff, even when received wisdom is clearly against him (which is an admirable thing in many situations obv, but not this one)

A lot of the people saying Corbyn 'just does not get it' are racist cnuts though. Boris Johnson for example. So it's difficult.

I saw something on twitter earlier that said out of 5 parliamentary motions condemning Antisemitism, Corbyn was of the paltry 8 % that actually signed them.

Haven't seen that tweet but I've no doubt his record is good and better than a lot of people criticising him.

I think what JC doesn't get is some of the mechanisms by which anti-semitism works its way into public discourse - and mainly to perhaps be thinking that ofc the left is better than this, when it isn't (that took me a while to see so myself..) And People on the right (like Boris) being racist doesn't excuse our side.

I do think the 2nd statement - although lacking - was Corbyn listening. That doesn't mean there is no work left - its there, for all of us to continuously work and re-work.

That 2nd statement has been spun as him saying "shouldn't laugh really" whereas it went a great deal further. In fact, pretty much says what people are saying it doesn't.

Idk speaking purely as an outsider the second statement struck me as pretty good and this whole thing just depresses me in terms of the unequal standards of conduct and opinion to which the left and right are held more broadly

The Smith/Brexit thing is just so fucking wilful and disingenuous on the part of centrist Westminster and people who orbit it - frontbenchers have to resign or be sacked if they can’t agree with a collective policy item, and advocate another position in public, whether it’s about housing or demanding a public vote on the Brexit deal. They know this, but it’s more important to shitstir.

That horrible mural is anti-Semitic and as awful as that is by itself, it’s the InfoWars/David Icke remix of conspiracy theory antisemitism. People who believe this crap are my least favourite people in the world to interact with, and (bonus) they’re also the watching-RT-at-their-dealer’s-flat demographic. If you’re into the horseshoe thing where extreme beliefs of both ‘wings’ meet, it’s not far off the people who make insinuations about George Soros - like Nick fucking Timothy, and look how close to power that guy has been.

otm on both counts, and as I say, the pro Palestine campaigners need to take a hard think about message and strategy

Hardcore anti-Corbyn remainer on my FB feed sharing tweet of "in a paralell universe, Owen Smith would now be expelling Corbyn from Labour for being an anti-semite". Sure, because a) anyone would've dug up a 2012 Corbyn story if Smith was leader now and b) Owen Smith would give a fuck about anti-semitism when it's not a stick to beat his opponents with. Good grief.

the unequal standards of conduct and opinion to which the left and right are held more broadly

Yeah I get you man but I think the general public in the UK is actually pretty aware that the tories are by and large a bunch of bigoted poshboys and I want ppl I vote for/support to be held to higher standards than that.

I feel ya.

I want ppl I vote for/support to be held to higher standards than that.
otfm.

In a parallel universe, Theresa May did get that 100 seat majority and Owen Smith didn't make it to a year for leader after campaigning on a 2nd referendum manifesto.

I don't know where fbpes live, but it's not the same reality as the rest of us.

I remember thinking during the leadership election that anti-semitism was one of the few areas where Corbyn appeared potentially vulnerable, but Smith handled it so incredibly badly - saying that he'd never seen/been aware of any anti-semitism in the Labour party before Corbyn became leader in 2015, demanding to know during one of the debates why Corbyn wouldn't give a clear condemnation of anti-semitism and then when Corbyn responded by doing exactly that saying that he didn't believe Corbyn was being sincere - just terrible

Just going by his dodgy conduct in that campaign, if he had been leader in GE '17 he would have made it all about May, and the fuckwit would have ended making her against all odds, look more competent and sympathetic.

there is so much shit on twitter that makes me want to vote Conservative. FFS, idiots retweeting pictures of Corbyn hugging an Hassid Jewish Man is just as embarrassing as the Beeb putting Russian hats on him for goodness sake.

Hasidic, I meant obv.

there's no question that this is the latest phase in the anti-socialist wing's war on Corbyn but he can end it really easily - take the allegations seriously, take a strong stance on antisemitism and deal with it wherever he comes across it. his own supporters are making this worse at the moment with the same old ostrich routine.

Is it really that easy to end? The demands tend to be so vague ('take more seriously", "make stronger statement" etc.) that at this point it's hard to see how or when opponents will be satisfied. A lot of it revolves around Corbyn having to directly police his entire base constantly.

Ayesha Hazarika
"If we speak up about sexual harassment or anti-Semitism in the party we are told it's just to criticize Jeremy. We have a situation where we can no longer speak. Jeremy must tell his supporters that this scrutiny is healthy"

Wes Streeting
"People ask what @jeremycorbyn could do. These people (Free Speech On Israel group) act in his name. If he's taking the message issued by @BoardofDeputies and @JLC_uk seriously he should tell those acting in his name to call off this rally against them. He could do that right now."

it's easy in the sense that there are clear direct steps he can take to demonstrate that he's taking this seriously. obviously nothing will ever be enough for the Blairmoaners but fuck them.

Not saying he shouldn't do those things really, just disputing the easiness given the agendas on both sides. Feel like Labour is very quickly back to its level of destroying itself from two years ago.

xxp Both of those are pretty specific 'demands', in fairness.

Definitely not helping: Nick suggested that it would imply a split in the party, as Yvette Cooper had criticised the leader, but Ms Wimborne-Idrissi (FSOI) insisted: "Yvette Cooper is one of Jeremy's leading enemies. She's been stabbing him in the back since the very beginning."

I mean, erasing decades of dogwhistles and defensiveness is not particularly "easy", no, but it's a moral responsibility and a project on the left that goes way beyond the Labour party or the UK political scene imo.

To be clear though, and depressingly enough, I doubt that this anti-semitism row has that much traction amongst the general public (though it should). I don't think the ppl pushing it have ever really backed down on Corbyn, they were just a bit muted after the election.

(the ppl pushing it to oust Corbyn, I mean - obviously there's lots of ppl who are sincerely and justifiably angry over the original Corbyn post)

Board of Deputies trying to relitigate the bullshit about ‘he calls Hezbollah and Hamas his friends’ is pure fuckery.

As a Jew I love it when non-Jews and right-wing Jews keep telling me what I should be offended by and what's in my interests.

In terms of things Corbyn could do, well, I wouldn’t be sorry for him to bin the cranks like Livingstone and Walker.

Unquestionable that some of this is politically motivated - saw the Telegraph shamelessly carrying this as their main story a few weeks after they ran the Soros story. I’m also thinking about Miliband, and how much of the briefing against him in the press was one long dogwhistle?

Anyway, I look forward to seeing how Corbyn goes on with this.