From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

but its a Canary link!

In other news, Ukrainian domestic politics is still 0_o.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-savchenko-terror-plot-accusations/29101770.html

The “Ukrainian Joan of Arc” Nadezhda Savchenko, who was hailed by the international media as a potential future President and garlanded with accolades by Poroshenko when she was released from Russian prison has:

a) been accused of plotting a coup / to massacre the Ukrainian parliament
b) accused (possibly accidentally) the Speaker of the Rada of orchestrating false flag sniper killings during the Maidan protests

The exit polls suggest Project 70/70 (Putin winning 70% of the vote from a 70% turnout) has fallen short of the mark. It’s currently looking like 72% vote share from what would be considered a disappointing 59% turnout, despite the prospect of discounted buckwheat at polling stations.

I find such blatant electoral blackmail completely bulgur tbh.

*snort*

Good luck rossiyskaya federatsiya

I find such blatant electoral blackmail completely bulgur tbh.

― calzino, Sunday, March 18, 2018 3:46 PM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you spelt that funny

A video is now being shown in Ukraine's parliament of MP Nadia Savchenko talking with alleged co-conspirators - she's talking about killing the country's President and other leaders in parliament...

— Jonah Fisher (@JonahFisherBBC) March 22, 2018

Savchenko currently chuckling to herself, sitting in parliament, as the video of her describing where to put the grenades is being played. The whole thing is very odd.

In other news, Kommersant, RBK, Ekho, Dozd and RTVi, some of Russia’s leading press orgs, are boycotting all future coverage of the Russian parliament after an MP who’d essentially admitted to sexually harrassing three women was cleared by the ethics board.

Is it significant or unusual that so many press orgs are boycotting, or par for the course?

Absolutely unprecedented afaict.

That's insane about the terrorist/coup plot. She's ... anti-Russian, pro Ukraine independence? So she wanted to blow up a bunch of Russian gov't proxies?

She’s a fierce Ukrainian nationalist but beyond that, it’s not entirely clear what she is up to. Her position is that politicians are weak / cowardly and that a military coup to clear the decks, possibly followed by some kind of military rule, would get the country back on track.

I don’t think she views the government as a Russian proxy, just the wrong kind of Ukrainians. Inevitably other Ukrainian nationalists who back the government are accusing her of being a Russian plant, etc.

Savchenko has been stripped of her immunity and arrested now.

On a more positive note, Ryanair has announced it is going to start flying to Kyiv Borispil this year. A previous agreement had fallen through under pressure from the Ukrainian state airline. It will be interesting to see how much uptake there is. It’s seen as a symbolic victory for those pushing for closer integration with Europe. Hopefully it can boost tourism beyond stag groups and sex pests, etc.

The Russian media boycott now has 22 participants including, rather strangely, Spetznaz Rossii - an outlet that appears to mostly cover commandos / special forces and related news. It isn’t just the usual list of liberal / opposition places.

On a related note, a male journalist has accused Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the far-right leader and presidential candidate, of groping him.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2018/03/29/its-time-to-go-after-vladimir-putins-money-in-the-west/

Fine article on what could be done, that should dovetail with wishes for better financial regulation quite nicely.

This is great:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43797176

Russia banned Telegram on the basis that it’s widely used by terrorists and the owners wouldn’t share encryption keys with the government. In trying to block it, the internet censor Roskomnadzor has managed to accidentally block four million IP addresses, including their own. Somehow they have also managed to accidentally unblock all the sites that they had previously made inaccessible over the years. The peak may have been when they accidentally blocked one of RT’s stations at the exact point the head of Roskomnadzor was giving an interview.

There's no thread for Armenia, but this seems to be significant here as well: Another pro-Russian leader resigns after popular protests: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/world/wp/2018/04/23/armenian-prime-minister-resigns-after-large-scale-protests/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.dc452bc43fa1

Armenia is the main Russian ally in Caucasus, right?

His resigning statement is really... something: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/931126.html

Armenia is politically closer to Russia than Georgia and Azerbaijan are but this isn't really Ukraine Part 2. There's debate over whether Armenia should stay in the Eurasian Union or aim for a closer relationship with the EU, and the protest leaders like Pashinyan are generally on the pro-EU side, but the core drive behind the protests over the last two years have been economic and constitutional, rather than being particularly focused on foreign policy.

There's a pretty strong suspicion, supported by Zakharova posting a fairly welcoming message on Facebook, that Russia used their leverage to get him to resign. The assumption is probably that he, personally, was a lighting-rod for protests but the core support for the ruling party remains strong enough to ride out any challenges.

Thanks! But can foreign policy and economic issues be separated with a country like Armenia? The Eurasian Union doesn't seem to have payed off for Armenia.

The argument that Pashinyan makes is that, economically, Armenia would be better off if it had opted for a trade deal with the EU instead but it's not particularly clear that there has been any significant impact one way or the other on the main flashpoint - which is the price of electricity. There's certainly some pro-EU sentiment in the country but it's nothing like the scale in Ukraine - Pashinyan's bloc got less than 8% at the last election and he was trounced in the Yerevan mayoral vote last year iirc.

Armenia has decent export ties to Germany and Bulgaria but it's a very small economy and can't trade with any of its bordering countries other than Georgia, really, and there's a massive reliance on imports from Russia. There could potentially be an upside to closer EU links but, presented as a binary, the Eurasian Union arguably makes more sense, at least in the medium term.

Georgia has more leeway as they've managed to diversify away from reliance on Russia by trading with Turkey, which isn't an option for Armenia.

And for Armenia there's also the problem with Nagorno-Karabakh and the hostilities with oil rich Azerbaijan. It makes sense for Armenia to be close to Russia, sure. But membership of the Eurasian Union can't look too good right now to Moldova, Tadjikistan, etc.

Tajikistan will probably move closer to the Eurasian Union but stop short of full membership. Moldova has done the same recently - opt for Observer status instead of joining. They both have alternative options but it’s worth remembering how important remittances from immigrants working in Russia are to both economies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/armenias-revolution-enters-new-stage-as-russia-begins-to-take-notice/2018/04/26/028f0fac-4957-11e8-8082-105a446d19b8_story.html?utm_term=.6445e712d9e7

It looks like there is now a non-negligible chance that the new PM might not come from the ruling party - which would require a few government members to vote against their parliamentary bloc.

If that happened, the new PM is most likely to come from the oil oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan’s party. Tsarukyan has always had fairly close ties to the senior leadership within the government though.

Get an inside look at post-Soviet disputed territories – now in English thanks to @Hromadske https://t.co/jZHX3spH1w

— Eilish Hart (@EilishHart) May 7, 2018

Serge Tankian from SOAD was the star guest at the rally in Yerevan last night supporting Pashinyan for PM.

The parliamentary vote is today, I think, and Pashinyan rates his chances “at 95%”. His rise, even over the last week, has been astonishing. There are probably too many people on the street in Yerevan for him not to be made PM though how that translates in the long-term remains to be seen.

He was right!

Parliament votes:
Yes - 59
No - 42
Nikol Pashinyan elected Prime Minister

— EVN Report (@evn_report) May 8, 2018

Wow

BREAKING: Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko, who was reported killed in Kiev, shows up at a news conference in Ukraine.

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 30, 2018

wtflol

Andrei Babchenko, a Russian war vet turned journalist, was murdered in Kyiv a few days ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/30/russia-rejects-ukraine-claim-dissident-journalist-killing-arkady-babchenko

Ukraine and Russia both pointed to each other- though Ukraine apparently seems a bit more motivated about solving this one than Pavel Sheremet. There has been a huge outpouring of horror from journalists across the spectrum.

One slight wrinkle is that he isn’t actually dead.

BABCHENKO AIN’T DEAD, Y'ALL https://t.co/KG4aGMHrRe

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) May 30, 2018

The whole thing was apparently a stunt.

Xp lol

The Ukrainian security services have said they faked the assassination to catch some actual assassins hired to kill him.

He apologised to his wife at the press conference, understandably.

Soon to be ex-wife, I imagine.

A Russian journalist that isn't murdered. This is huge.

They’re currently taking down his memorial plaque.

One of the most amazing details is that it was his wife who found him - covered in blood and pretending to be on the brink of death. She called an ambulance and he ‘died’ on the way to hospital. She literally just found out he wasn’t dead this afternoon.

woah

"I would like to issue condolences to the Babchenko family", said the Ukrainian special forces officer. Then added, after a pause: "But I won't do it. Instead, I will wish him another happy birthday."
After which, Babchenko walks in...
Damn....

But such happy news, though!

— Slava Malamud (@SlavaMalamud) May 30, 2018

After revealing that Babchenko was alive Ukrainian Prosecutor General Lutsenko smugly read tweets from MPs and other criticizing authorities for failing to prevent Babchenko’s death pic.twitter.com/lUABXBh22T

— Ian Bateson (@ianbateson) May 30, 2018

His wife should murder him for real

This entire story is insane, but a big part of me wonders what was going through the mind of the real assassins when they heard someone else had got there first. TBF I'm sketchy on the details of exactly how the faked assassination led to the real conspirators, but apparently they also intercepted a list of 30 other targets.

I would guess that they arrested the potential assassin before staging it and the sting was for whoever paid him.

There are lots of questions to answer though. The police have released a brief clip of people (possibly undercover security agents) handing $30k to the guy who they have arrested - filmed from a camera hidden in the bag of money they gave him.

One of the most amazing details is that it was his wife who found him - covered in blood and pretending to be on the brink of death. She called an ambulance and he ‘died’ on the way to hospital. She literally just found out he wasn’t dead this afternoon.

Is there an account of the staging anywhere?

Nothing cohesive that I have seen yet - just bits and pieces from journalists at the press conference.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2018/05/31/the-man-accused-of-ordering-arkady-babchenko-s-murder-says-he-was-working-for-ukrainian-counterintelligence-all-along

Not sure where to begin with this.

The man accused of being the go-between for the person committing the hit has claimed in court to have been working with the Ukrainian secret service all along. The prosecutor says this doesn’t seem likely.

The accused also says Ukrainian intelligence contracted a man called Alexey Tsymbalyuk to serve as the hitman. Tsymbalyuk is a) a priest, b) an open, seig-heiling, swastika-wearing neo-Nazi and c) a veteran of the war in Donbass - fighting on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainian secret service says this isn’t true.

So this has gone down

https://www.rferl.org/a/constantinople-patriarchate-agrees-to-recognize-independence-of-ukrainian-orthodox-church/29538590.html

o shit is rod dreher gonna convert again

Roffle. He posted some sort of 'uh well I dunno' post when this first came up.

Tymoshenko has turned up the heat in the Ukrainian election race by starting impeachment proceedings against Poroshenko:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ukraine-begins-poroshenko-impeachment-process-190226085343173.html

The scandal (turning a blind eye to one of his pals laundering dirty money through inflated orders of military parts) would generally fall under the category of ‘garden variety crimes’ people would be expected to get away with normally but the timing is a gift to Yulia. Her momentum seems to have been slowing in the polls recently. Also highlights that, despite the monumental risks, there is still a lot of very good, very brave investigative reporting going on.

Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian who starred in a hit comedy show about a normal guy running for president to tackle corruption, and then decided to do it irl, has raced past Tymoshenko and Poroshenko to lead almost all polls by some distance now. It would be an interesting story about a (relatively) down-to-earth David taking on two oligarch Goliaths if it wasn’t for the very strong possibility / probability that he is a front for their eternal frenemy Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who owns the channel the show aired on.

i thought you meant his comedy show was about his decision to do corruption instead, which is sorta sbc retread-y