Your 2020 Presidential Candidate Speculation Thread

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1SdjRSqqHE

I think Biden wants to run and today is more likely than not to do so, but not sure he'll be better than 50-50 next year. I think a handful of Senators may run, but that Klobuchar won't, that probably only one (at best) of Brown/Merkley(/Ryan) will, and have my doubts about both Booker and Harris, though at this point I expect both Sanders and Warren, even if less sure as to the latter. The Governors are harder to read at this stage, by design, but I expect at least one each from East and West, and maybe two. Garcetti appears to be running, and not sure he'll be the only big- (or smaller-)city mayor, but he's the only one I'd put above 50%. The out-of-offices I'm pretty skeptical of, though Patrick, e.g., may be likelier if Biden begs off. What Steyer's up to, I have no idea. I'll guess maybe 12-15 contenders.

i assume de blasio will be running. he has enough national recognition and is very tall, so he would seem likely to attract enough support to be considered a Serious Candidate, at least at the beginning.

knew it was gabb before i finished scrolling down

btw your list is insanely long

I like Merkely. He has a strong set of progressive positions he can push. But he'd really have to catch fire to have any chance. He's a little-known name, from a small state, and not very charismatic, although the same could be said of Bernie.

otoh, Bernie lost the nomination in what was essentially a two-person field by Super Tuesday. I don't think Merkely can stand out in the crowd that will be running this time.

btw your list is insanely long

― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Tuesday, March 13, 2018 7:40 PM (forty-one seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Also distinguished. But not exhaustive.

I endeavored to list those likeliest to run, not those likeliest to succeed. I think there's a serious prospect of Merkley running, though he may well be among the drop-out-before-or-right-after-Iowa cohort.

Everybody I know in Oregon loves Merkley. I'm on the same page with a lot of his positions, but what a drip. He's the Tim Pawlenty of righty politics.

(I still lol when I remember Lawrence O'Donnell 100% GUARANTEED that Tim Pawlenty would be the GOP nominee shortly before he dropped out of the race.)

*lefty

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/286/197/c6c.jpg

What matters most...no the only thing that matters to me is what their position was on TPP

"if Gillibrand sticks to eschewing corporate PAC donations and will unambiguously argue for single payer i think she'd probably do ok at bridging the Bernie wing and the With Her Still wing"

there's already a contingent that hates her for going after Franken (a contingent that has chalked the entire franken thing up to russian interference) and a good portion of those people seem to be bernie people, so I don't know.

― akm, Monday, March 12, 2018 9:20 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

really? i thought they were mostly hillary ppl --- most of the bernie-lovin lefties i follow on twitter seem pretty nonplussed by anything to do with "russian interference"

the narrative that russia did everything bad seems to have been most enthusiastically embraced by centrists unwilling to confront the fact that the dems made some pretty dumb decisions in the election, but maybe i'm off base here idk

― gbx, Monday, March 12, 2018 10:15 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

like legit people with any visibility or just the trolls that go on her facebook page and vomit rage every time she has a sponsored post? like i'm genuinely asking.

bc i've seen a whole lot of the latter and i don't want to be 'that guy' but if i were working for the GOP i'd figure we might as well start sowing discord/ kneecapping potentially strong Dem contenders ASAP.

the people who claim everything is related to russia and every person on twitter is a russian bot are a cancer

although I did enjoy the acrobatics when it was revealed Shareblue has been paying for a bunch of questionable twitter retweets

obviously it's a russian double-blind to entrap them

Interesting question is to what degree Biden's entry clears the 'establishment' field, with sub-query regarding his reported consideration of a ticket candidacy, the likelihood of which seems highly questionable.

expanded medicare/healthcare for all or im not voting. Dems been hyping health reform since the 90s. its a dealbreaker.

https://apnews.com/df86b8eace314fa6ab384dae96780fd2/Flake-eyes-2020-primary-challenge-to-stop-Trump

My distinguished record of challenging trump involves some strongly worded speeches and voting for every fucking thing he supports

romney is the one i'm concerned about.

concern about what? he's just about got Orin's Utah senate seat in the bag. if he runs against Trump, it will be an echo of Teddy vs. Jimmy in 1980.

i'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, but it is possible that trump won't be run in 2020, for any variety of reasons (impeachment, economic crash leading to him deciding not to run again, maybe he'll just die, etc). in that scenario, i think romney would be one of the frontrunners for the GOP.

kasich is definitely running in 2020

I’ll let you know who starts hanging out in Iowa for some reason or another. It’s a decent barometer

Kasich supposedly is more wont to run as independent than to primary Trump. Supposedly, but that's probably reflective of an accurate estimation that he wouldn't get far in a primary.

i think it's really hard to guess at what the situation will be like in spring 2020, even more than it usually is 2 away from a primary. the Trump situation is chaotic in so many ways right now - you could be looking at a fractured GOP with an embattled Trump lashing out, a united GOP behind President Pence, we could be in the middle of some new war created by Bolton, Trump, and Pompeo, the economy could crash...who knows. The only thing I know is that I don't trust anyone who claims to know what's going to happen.

not be ageist but romney is deceptively old - currently 71

romney is the one i'm concerned about.

― Karl Malone, Friday, March 16, 2018 6:59 PM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQaZKquLa5M

he is old, but every election the age thing comes up in a lot of elections but

2016: Trump (70), Clinton (69), Sanders (75)
2012: Romney (65)
2008: McCain (72)

and of course reagan.

The same band of white people who voted against Romney voted against Hillary. It's not like the nation is soul-searching for a sane billionaire to run things.

http://media.breitbart.com/media/2018/03/Michael-Avenatti-37-Thumbnail.jpg

this guy drives race cars and looks ready to murder somebody, I'm in

he looks like one of those facial recognition software research paper "average face" images

lmao like matt lauer, vlad putin, and john travolta mixed into one face

there's at least 10% christian slater in there as well

wait a goddamn minute

indeed there's something a little automatonic there, that's just gravy

https://i.imgur.com/5XGvVmJ.jpg

eh, not so much i guess

He looks a lot like someone I've worked with.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/21/mitch-landrieu-2020-democrats-473648
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/379660-los-angeles-mayor-headed-to-iowa

Re: Landrieu...

"[Obama’s Iowa field director in 2008 and battleground states director in 2012] added, 'He would be one of the few candidates who I think could appeal to the African-American community and the white working class.'”

I think that's right. I also think the others who fall into that category include:

Joe Biden (Af-Am community mostly by proxy, but could be made up by strength of WWC appeal)
Mark Cuban (not a Democrat)
Van Jones (running?)
Dwayne the whatever Johnson (who I try not to think about)

But I'm not sure who else. Patrick, maybe, and I don't rule out the possibility of Garcetti or some of the other younger people, but they'll have a hill to climb.

unrelated, but: gillibrand endorsing cuomo has prob tarnished her uh brand with a lot of lefties

gillibrand endorsing cuomo

oh damn i missed that. fucking boo

He seems like an overwhelming favorite in the race, so staying on the good side of the governor of the state you represent in the senate is just good business imo.

lol wait, Van Jones?

I wasn't aware Gillibrand had a "brand with a lot of lefties" who would care that she inevitably endorsed Cuomo.

Didn't Van Jones get harangued out of the Obama admin early on for some reason right wing media drummed up? I'm sure they'd love to use it again, whatever it was.

I'll be curious to see if any major dems endorse Nixon xp

Yes. He's also been on an 18-month Trumplandia listening tour that's won him a bit of an audience there.

re Van - i think he flirted with 9/11 trutherism or something?

well i mean he had that great moment on the night of the election when he was arguing with lewandoski. but then there's this

When I say #NeverTrump, I don't mean THIS Trump. #NerdProm #WHCD #cnn @cnn @EricTrump pic.twitter.com/k7eZyteJUQ

— Van Jones (@VanJones68) May 1, 2016

oof