really? i thought they were mostly hillary ppl --- most of the bernie-lovin lefties i follow on twitter seem pretty nonplussed by anything to do with "russian interference"
the narrative that russia did everything bad seems to have been most enthusiastically embraced by centrists unwilling to confront the fact that the dems made some pretty dumb decisions in the election, but maybe i'm off base here idk
― gbx, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 03:15 (six years ago) link
if you mean they're perplexed why anyone would go that off the deep end into russian interference, yeah
― flappy bird, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 03:40 (six years ago) link
sorry i shouldn't be snotty about the actual meaning of 'nonplussed.' your post is otm, not off base at all
― flappy bird, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 03:41 (six years ago) link
Ordinarily the specter of Russian interference, apart from actual manipulation of the vote totals, would seem like a fairly small splash in a very big pond, but there are plenty of reasons why this does not apply to 2016, an election where the distortions created by the electoral college allowed a minority of voters (~3 million fewer votes) to elect the president, and the three most decisive states were decided by extremely thin margins. Not to mention that the candidate who benefitted from these anomalous events to become POTUS is a racist, semi-literate narcissist with proto-fascist leanings.
Under the circumstances, if Russia intervened sufficiently to help create this result, the majority, who voted against it, should be furious.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 13 March 2018 04:02 (six years ago) link
Someone said something about an exhaustive list? I won't go that far, but I'll list about two dozen of the likeliest Democratic candidates (at least 1/3 of whom likely won't end up running), and some of the likelier also-runs:
Joe BidenCory BookerSherrod BrownSteve BullockAndrew CuomoJohn DelaneyEric GarcettiKirsten GillibrandLuis GutierrezKamala HarrisJohn HickenlooperEric Holder (or Sally Yates?)Jay InsleeVan Jones (as Oprah's campaign manager?)Amy KlobucharMitch LandrieuTerry McAuliffeJeff Merkley Martin O'MalleyDeval PatrickTim RyanBernie SandersTom SteyerElizabeth Warren
Might run to make Joe Biden look youthful?: Jerry BrownMight run to constantly poke Andrew Cuomo?: Bill de BlasioMight run to No Elizabeth Warren?: Gina RaimondoMight run for Vice President/as surrogate?: Cheri Bustos, Julian Castro, Jason Kander, Patrick Kennedy, Seth Moulton, Chris Murphy, Eric SwalwellMight run to support Putin/Trump?: Tulsi Gabbard, Dennis Kucinich
Possible Republican challengers if Trump remains in office: Mark Cuban, Jeff Flake, John Kasich, Mitt Romney
Possible Republican candidates if Trump is removed from office: Steve Bannon, Marsha Blackburn, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Nikki Haley, Mark Meadows, Mike Pence, Marco Rubio, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Scott Walker
Possible Independent tickets if Trump is the nominee and Dems nominate a Sanders-type figure: Michael Bloomberg/Mike Mullen, John Kasich/John Hickenlooper, Howard Schultz/Mark Cuban or vice versa
― Moo Vaughn, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 18:43 (six years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1SdjRSqqHE
― had (crüt), Tuesday, 13 March 2018 19:03 (six years ago) link
I think Biden wants to run and today is more likely than not to do so, but not sure he'll be better than 50-50 next year. I think a handful of Senators may run, but that Klobuchar won't, that probably only one (at best) of Brown/Merkley(/Ryan) will, and have my doubts about both Booker and Harris, though at this point I expect both Sanders and Warren, even if less sure as to the latter. The Governors are harder to read at this stage, by design, but I expect at least one each from East and West, and maybe two. Garcetti appears to be running, and not sure he'll be the only big- (or smaller-)city mayor, but he's the only one I'd put above 50%. The out-of-offices I'm pretty skeptical of, though Patrick, e.g., may be likelier if Biden begs off. What Steyer's up to, I have no idea. I'll guess maybe 12-15 contenders.
― Moo Vaughn, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 19:31 (six years ago) link
i assume de blasio will be running. he has enough national recognition and is very tall, so he would seem likely to attract enough support to be considered a Serious Candidate, at least at the beginning.
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 19:35 (six years ago) link
knew it was gabb before i finished scrolling down
btw your list is insanely long
― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Tuesday, 13 March 2018 19:40 (six years ago) link
I like Merkely. He has a strong set of progressive positions he can push. But he'd really have to catch fire to have any chance. He's a little-known name, from a small state, and not very charismatic, although the same could be said of Bernie.
otoh, Bernie lost the nomination in what was essentially a two-person field by Super Tuesday. I don't think Merkely can stand out in the crowd that will be running this time.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 13 March 2018 19:42 (six years ago) link
― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Tuesday, March 13, 2018 7:40 PM (forty-one seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Also distinguished. But not exhaustive.
― Moo Vaughn, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 19:43 (six years ago) link
I endeavored to list those likeliest to run, not those likeliest to succeed. I think there's a serious prospect of Merkley running, though he may well be among the drop-out-before-or-right-after-Iowa cohort.
― Moo Vaughn, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 19:53 (six years ago) link
Everybody I know in Oregon loves Merkley. I'm on the same page with a lot of his positions, but what a drip. He's the Tim Pawlenty of righty politics.
(I still lol when I remember Lawrence O'Donnell 100% GUARANTEED that Tim Pawlenty would be the GOP nominee shortly before he dropped out of the race.)
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 21:39 (six years ago) link
*lefty
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/286/197/c6c.jpg
― mh, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 21:40 (six years ago) link
What matters most...no the only thing that matters to me is what their position was on TPP
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 21:42 (six years ago) link
"if Gillibrand sticks to eschewing corporate PAC donations and will unambiguously argue for single payer i think she'd probably do ok at bridging the Bernie wing and the With Her Still wing"
there's already a contingent that hates her for going after Franken (a contingent that has chalked the entire franken thing up to russian interference) and a good portion of those people seem to be bernie people, so I don't know.
― akm, Monday, March 12, 2018 9:20 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― gbx, Monday, March 12, 2018 10:15 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
like legit people with any visibility or just the trolls that go on her facebook page and vomit rage every time she has a sponsored post? like i'm genuinely asking.
bc i've seen a whole lot of the latter and i don't want to be 'that guy' but if i were working for the GOP i'd figure we might as well start sowing discord/ kneecapping potentially strong Dem contenders ASAP.
― constitutional crises they fly at u face (will), Tuesday, 13 March 2018 21:47 (six years ago) link
the people who claim everything is related to russia and every person on twitter is a russian bot are a cancer
― mh, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 21:49 (six years ago) link
although I did enjoy the acrobatics when it was revealed Shareblue has been paying for a bunch of questionable twitter retweets
obviously it's a russian double-blind to entrap them
― mh, Tuesday, 13 March 2018 21:51 (six years ago) link
Interesting question is to what degree Biden's entry clears the 'establishment' field, with sub-query regarding his reported consideration of a ticket candidacy, the likelihood of which seems highly questionable.
― Moo Vaughn, Wednesday, 14 March 2018 18:56 (six years ago) link
expanded medicare/healthcare for all or im not voting. Dems been hyping health reform since the 90s. its a dealbreaker.
― Hazy Maze Cave (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 16 March 2018 16:22 (six years ago) link
https://apnews.com/df86b8eace314fa6ab384dae96780fd2/Flake-eyes-2020-primary-challenge-to-stop-Trump
― Moo Vaughn, Friday, 16 March 2018 18:33 (six years ago) link
My distinguished record of challenging trump involves some strongly worded speeches and voting for every fucking thing he supports
― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 16 March 2018 18:43 (six years ago) link
romney is the one i'm concerned about.
― Karl Malone, Friday, 16 March 2018 18:59 (six years ago) link
concern about what? he's just about got Orin's Utah senate seat in the bag. if he runs against Trump, it will be an echo of Teddy vs. Jimmy in 1980.
― A is for (Aimless), Friday, 16 March 2018 19:35 (six years ago) link
i'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, but it is possible that trump won't be run in 2020, for any variety of reasons (impeachment, economic crash leading to him deciding not to run again, maybe he'll just die, etc). in that scenario, i think romney would be one of the frontrunners for the GOP.
― Karl Malone, Friday, 16 March 2018 19:39 (six years ago) link
kasich is definitely running in 2020
― marcos, Friday, 16 March 2018 19:39 (six years ago) link
I’ll let you know who starts hanging out in Iowa for some reason or another. It’s a decent barometer
― mh, Friday, 16 March 2018 21:45 (six years ago) link
Kasich supposedly is more wont to run as independent than to primary Trump. Supposedly, but that's probably reflective of an accurate estimation that he wouldn't get far in a primary.
― Moo Vaughn, Friday, 16 March 2018 21:49 (six years ago) link
i think it's really hard to guess at what the situation will be like in spring 2020, even more than it usually is 2 away from a primary. the Trump situation is chaotic in so many ways right now - you could be looking at a fractured GOP with an embattled Trump lashing out, a united GOP behind President Pence, we could be in the middle of some new war created by Bolton, Trump, and Pompeo, the economy could crash...who knows. The only thing I know is that I don't trust anyone who claims to know what's going to happen.
― Karl Malone, Friday, 16 March 2018 22:00 (six years ago) link
not be ageist but romney is deceptively old - currently 71
romney is the one i'm concerned about.― Karl Malone, Friday, March 16, 2018 6:59 PM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― Karl Malone, Friday, March 16, 2018 6:59 PM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 16 March 2018 23:09 (six years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQaZKquLa5M
― Moo Vaughn, Friday, 16 March 2018 23:39 (six years ago) link
he is old, but every election the age thing comes up in a lot of elections but
2016: Trump (70), Clinton (69), Sanders (75)2012: Romney (65)2008: McCain (72)
and of course reagan.
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 17 March 2018 00:08 (six years ago) link
The same band of white people who voted against Romney voted against Hillary. It's not like the nation is soul-searching for a sane billionaire to run things.
― pplains, Saturday, 17 March 2018 01:26 (six years ago) link
http://media.breitbart.com/media/2018/03/Michael-Avenatti-37-Thumbnail.jpg
this guy drives race cars and looks ready to murder somebody, I'm in
― motorpsycho nightmare winningham (Hadrian VIII), Saturday, 17 March 2018 02:26 (six years ago) link
he looks like one of those facial recognition software research paper "average face" images
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 17 March 2018 02:38 (six years ago) link
lmao like matt lauer, vlad putin, and john travolta mixed into one face
― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Saturday, 17 March 2018 02:40 (six years ago) link
there's at least 10% christian slater in there as well
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 17 March 2018 02:45 (six years ago) link
wait a goddamn minute
indeed there's something a little automatonic there, that's just gravy
― motorpsycho nightmare winningham (Hadrian VIII), Saturday, 17 March 2018 02:47 (six years ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/5XGvVmJ.jpg
eh, not so much i guess
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 17 March 2018 02:48 (six years ago) link
He looks a lot like someone I've worked with.
― Moo Vaughn, Thursday, 22 March 2018 15:56 (six years ago) link
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/21/mitch-landrieu-2020-democrats-473648http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/379660-los-angeles-mayor-headed-to-iowa
― Moo Vaughn, Thursday, 22 March 2018 15:57 (six years ago) link
Re: Landrieu...
"[Obama’s Iowa field director in 2008 and battleground states director in 2012] added, 'He would be one of the few candidates who I think could appeal to the African-American community and the white working class.'”
I think that's right. I also think the others who fall into that category include:
Joe Biden (Af-Am community mostly by proxy, but could be made up by strength of WWC appeal)Mark Cuban (not a Democrat)Van Jones (running?)Dwayne the whatever Johnson (who I try not to think about)
But I'm not sure who else. Patrick, maybe, and I don't rule out the possibility of Garcetti or some of the other younger people, but they'll have a hill to climb.
― Moo Vaughn, Thursday, 22 March 2018 17:17 (six years ago) link
unrelated, but: gillibrand endorsing cuomo has prob tarnished her uh brand with a lot of lefties
― gbx, Thursday, 22 March 2018 17:21 (six years ago) link
gillibrand endorsing cuomo
oh damn i missed that. fucking boo
― constitutional crises they fly at u face (will), Thursday, 22 March 2018 17:22 (six years ago) link
He seems like an overwhelming favorite in the race, so staying on the good side of the governor of the state you represent in the senate is just good business imo.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 22 March 2018 17:25 (six years ago) link
lol wait, Van Jones?
― flappy bird, Thursday, 22 March 2018 17:26 (six years ago) link
I wasn't aware Gillibrand had a "brand with a lot of lefties" who would care that she inevitably endorsed Cuomo.
― Moo Vaughn, Thursday, 22 March 2018 17:28 (six years ago) link
Didn't Van Jones get harangued out of the Obama admin early on for some reason right wing media drummed up? I'm sure they'd love to use it again, whatever it was.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 22 March 2018 17:29 (six years ago) link