US Politics, March 2018: Why do people leave the White House for good?

Ryan's been muttering via usual anonymous friends about wanting out this year. I suspect he's considered either alternate fate -- losing the House or stuck carrying Trump's ever more piss-colored water -- to be not worth it.

Dear God. There’s basically one person left in America who thinks our criminal justice system isn’t punitive enough. His name is Bill Otis. And Trump just nominated him to the US Sentencing Commission. https://t.co/e4jzNbbizX

— Radley Balko (@radleybalko) March 1, 2018

From 2015:

Faced with the choice between two potential errors—continuing to imprison someone who’s no longer a threat and releasing someone who ends up harming new victims—Otis says he’ll opt for the former. “Error is an inevitable fact of life,” he says in an interview. “And the only realistic question that adults can ask is not what system are we going to adopt that is going to avoid error, because there is no such system. The only question you get to ask is, which system is going to give us the fewest errors and who should have to bear the risk of error?”

Though Otis usually eschews the theoretical vocabulary of criminologists for more pungent terms (a favorite device of his is to refer sarcastically to offenders as “Mr. Nicey”), the philosophy he gravitates to has a name: incapacitation. It holds that a surefire solution to crime is to remove likely offenders from society. Otis’ version of the idea embodies what Berkeley law professor Jonathan Simon calls “a kind of axiomatic success that is immune to empirical evidence.” If any parolees commit crime, well, there you go: case closed. And if locking them up is the only true insurance against future crimes, then the best crime prevention measure is locking up more people for longer sentences. Rather than see dramatically declining crime rates as cause for corresponding drops in imprisonment, Otis argues that now is not the time to tinker with a successful formula.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/crime/2015/07/bill_otis_meet_the_last_man_standing_who_thinks_criminal_justice_reform.html

Is there a finite tenure for either Ryan or McConnell

They will continue to serve until one of the following happens:

• they resign their position
• they retire from the House or Senate
• their caucus votes them out of their leadership positions
• they lose an election and do not return to Congress

I thought McConnell caused enough trouble in that minority position prior to the Republicans getting into power as it was.
if anybody is going to make an anchor out of Nunes couldn't he help weigh it down, please.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/03/momentum-builds-to-can-devin-nunes-from-house-intel-role.html

your 'left' party at work

https://splinternews.com/democrats-are-trying-to-help-the-banks-racially-discrim-1823427155

fuck Tim Kaine

this momentum builds but Ryan had an easy excuse to do it already and pretended he didn't know he could remove Nunes then.

I weep for them. I cry the bitterest of tears.

Referring to:

"A former White House official said he's spoken with more aides inside the White House who are trying to leave the administration, but not necessarily getting the kinds of high-paying offers in the corporate world as former aides usually do.”https://t.co/eNVDzBwMxX

— Tom Namako (@TomNamako) March 1, 2018

I like the wacky sitcom idea of having them all leave and just go open a diner or something.

a PR firm

they are so good at it

in case anyone wants to see an actual shot from hope hicks' modeling days, there's one here (it's a 2003 ya novel "created by" the woman who wrote the GOSSIP GIRL books)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_It_Girl_(novel)

Popular Gossip Girl character Jenny Humphrey is leaving Constance Billard to attend Waverly Academy, an elite boarding school in New York horse country where glamorous rich kids don't let the rules get in the way of an excellent time. Jenny is determined to leave her crazy Manhattan past behind and become a sophisticated goddess on campus. But first she will have to contend with her self-absorbed roommates, Callie Vernon and Brett Messerschmidt. Hot guys, new intrigue, and more delicious gossip all add up to more trouble than ever for Jenny. But if getting caught up with boys and facing the Disciplinary Committee is what it takes, Jenny is ready. She'll do all that and more to be The It Girl.

this is almost literally the Hope Hicks story

lol

McMaster to leave? Am I really first to post this or do I keep overlooking something?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/white-house-preparing-mcmaster-exit-early-next-month-n852371

i honestly have trouble keeping the respected-but-totally-reactionary generals straight

Tariff news going over great!

Like most brewers, we are selling an increasing amount of our beers in aluminum cans, and this action will cause aluminum prices to rise. It is likely to lead to job losses across the beer industry. (2/3)

— MillerCoors (@MillerCoors) March 1, 2018

*Coors headquarters*

"But we're the reactionary fuckheads of the industry!"

"We will be sympathized with."

"..."

pissing off the intel gangs AND Coors, Yam may find himself taking a Dallas motorcade ride before next Thanksgiving

coors is like owned by canadians now and they just hang and do curling and shit, afaict. *looks at brewery from desk* yup.

Axios reporting that tariff mess exacerbated by absence of Rob Porter and interruption of weekly trade meetings. It's gonna be great fun when a few months from now the WH staff has dwindled to Vince McMahon and a magic eight ball

https://www.axios.com/trump-declares-his-trade-war-targets-steel-aluminum-2f68d5fe-69ec-4872-b1d5-aaae28f7bf4b.html

pissing off the intel gangs AND Coors

video game bros are also unhappy now

McMaster to leave? Am I really first to post this or do I keep overlooking something?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/white-house-preparing-mcmaster-exit-early-next-month-n852371

― Evan,

i had no idea. the report says "exclusive" and it was published about 20 minute ago, it looks like

WASHINGTON — The White House is preparing to replace H.R. McMaster as national security adviser as early as next month in a move orchestrated by chief of staff John Kelly and Defense Secretary James Mattis, according to five people familiar with the discussions.

The move would be the latest in a long string of staff shakeups at the White House over the past year and comes after months of strained relations between the president and McMaster.

A leading candidate to become President Donald Trump’s third national security adviser is the auto industry executive Stephen Biegun, according to the officials.

third national security adviser is the auto industry executive Stephen Biegun

just trying to let this sink in.

xps re: tariffs the solar racking/mounting industry is also pissed fwiw

john bolton is available

Stephen picked because his last name has the word gun in it

then again, i thought rex tillerson would be spectacularly unqualified but i guess his years of figuring out how to enrich he and his friends exploiting the resources of other countries did a pretty good job of preparing him to be the face of US foreign policy

Hadrian, it's possible that Vince McMahon and a Magic 8 ball would do a better job

oh. looks like biegun actually has a lot of experience. once again i stick the foot in mouth

Vice President, International Governmental Affairs, Ford Motor Company

Stephen E. Biegun is a corporate officer and vice president of International Governmental Affairs for Ford Motor Company. In this role for Ford, Mr. Biegun oversees all aspects of Ford’s international governmental relations, including trade strategy and political risk assessment.

Prior to joining Ford, Mr. Biegun served as national security advisor to Senate Majority Leader, Senator Bill Frist, M.D. In this capacity, he provided analysis and strategic planning for the United States Senate’s consideration of foreign policy, defense and intelligence matters, and international trade agreements.

Before joining the staff of the Majority Leader, Mr. Biegun worked in the White House from 2001-2003 as Executive Secretary of the National Security Council. He served as a senior staff member to the National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice, and performed the function of chief operating officer for the National Security Council.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/people/stephen-e--biegun.html

On the Coors, thing is that the original owners probably own quite a bit of stock and/or have some say in the combined Molson Coors company as those kind of mergers/buyouts are often paid in stock back. I'm sure there are some people that had big money in Coors that now have even more in Molson Coors after the merger and positions in the new beer empire.

what could possibly go wrong hiring an auto exec to handle national security?

http://www.nndb.com/people/387/000022321/robert-mcnamara.jpg

Let's ask Mr. McNamara.

Meantime

NEW from @NBCNews: Robert Mueller is assembling a case for criminal charges against Russians who carried out hacking of Democrats’ emails -
@KenDilanianNBC reporting now on @msnbc:https://t.co/0AJORDTuRQ

— Kailani Koenig (@kailanikm) March 1, 2018

He better be careful, I heard they have smart nukes that can avoid detection.

Would rather see more charges against Americans or anyone who stands a real chance of being arrested.

I think the charges against Russians are functioning politically to legitimize prosecutions of Americans (surely there are more on the way) and beat back WH witch hunt nonsense

yeah but also these dudes messed with the elections and have plans for further fuckery

we must punish them

Yeah I guess they think charging actual Russians shows thoroughness and bolsters credibility. It demonstrates that there is some real shit going on, not just a lame-ass Dem fairy tale.

All that said, it would feel emotionally much better if DT went down over the obstruction, not the (rather more hazy and abstract) "collusion."

let the man do his job

Obstruction has quite strong evidence already, just based on what has been reported and is in the public record. It will no doubt be addressed in due time. Indictments of close advisors and aides who are implicated in the obstruction will probably come first. Mueller is busy building a pyramid and the indictments so far are the base and another course or two. The pinnacle is still a ways off.

collusion way sexier imo

Gonna be some awesome tweetin' soon, especially if it's too rainy for golf over the weekend.

Mr. Biegun, born 1963, graduated from the University of Michigan where he studied Political Science and Russian Language [...] and is a member of the boards of the US-Russia Foundation for Economic Development and the Rule of Law, the Moscow School of Politics, Freedom House, the US-Russia Business Council, the US-ASEAN Business Council and FordSollers, Ford Motor Company’s joint venture operating in the Russia Federation.

Russia Russia Russia.

After a crazy 24 hours, sources close to President Trump say he is in a bad place — mad as hell about the internal chaos and the sense that things are unraveling.

wasn't this lede written in March 2017?

biegun is a condoleezza rice protege, i'm told

horserace-bred journalists having a hard time adopting an intelligible frame for a year and a half of incompetent blundering and constant lack of direction