I Never MENA Hurt You; I Never MENA Make You Cry 2017 (Middle East, North Africa, and Other Geopolitical Hotspots)

rip saleh, you mercurial man

Saleh’s apparently violent end removed one the Arab world’s most resilient and ruthless strongmen, a onetime U.S. ally who was toppled six years ago during the Arab Spring protests that swept the region but who managed to retain his influence. His death left Yemen—chronically impoverished, riven by violence and in the throes of a catastrophic civil war—facing even greater uncertainty.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/yemens-former-leader-ali-abdullah-saleh-has-died-amid-escalating-fighting-political-aides-say/2017/12/04/319413b6-d8f9-11e7-a841-2066faf731ef_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_yemen-930am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.e82eba48b2de

it continues to be weird that a group that supposedly has zero leverage and is by far the weaker party to any agreement can so boldly - even before a proposal has officially been made - reject any offer. it's almost as if they believe that they are holding a stronger hand.

― Mordy, 4. december 2017 18:32 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This is the least weird thing ever. Weak parties are never ever in a rush to solidify their weakness into a binding agreement.

only if they believe that they have some kind of leverage that can be summoned. if it seemed like they were getting weaker as time went on (and that future deals would leave them in an even worse position) they would presumably be motivated to make a deal now. if however they believed that there was a better deal on offer if they just waited then they'd be motivated to hold out. out of either realism or fantasy they've generally settled on the latter (imo to their detriment but i don't share their strategic interests).

You might think it doesn't make sense, but it's completely normal. The weak part often doesn't think they have anything to lose, and therefore doesn't want to settle.

I think it's normal because I think they believe they have leverage (demographic leverage, political leverage from the EU and the Arab nations, etc), not because I think they believe they have nothing to lose. Because they still have plenty to lose. They could lose the possibility of getting any State at all.

it's an awful, stupid, classic MBS proposal

sooner he is assassinated by one of his fellow in-bred sauds the better

I think it's normal because I think they believe they have leverage (demographic leverage, political leverage from the EU and the Arab nations, etc), not because I think they believe they have nothing to lose. Because they still have plenty to lose. They could lose the possibility of getting any State at all.

― Mordy, 4. december 2017 20:12 (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

They don't have a state, they risk not having a state, what have they lost?

And yeah, it's an awful proposal, and the whole idea is to quickly solve the Palestinian issue so that big smart thinkers like MBS and Kushner can focus on the real tough issues. Of course Abbas won't play along.

the PLO have more territory and sovereignty now than they did pre-oslo. they could lose that. under olmert they could've had a state in gaza, the WB and east jerusalem. now it seems like jerusalem is entirely off the table probably for good. the smart play is doing what the jews did in 47 - accept the imperfect partition plan bc it's better to have a bird in the hand than two in the bush and see what you can make happen after that.

see what you can make happen after that.

Sounds ominous.

but abbas i believe thinks he has more leverage than that. for reasons (some good, some delusional) he thinks israel will ultimately be pressured into giving into maximalist palestinian demands aka palestinian state in WB, Gaza, East Jerusalem capital AND ROR for refugees AND Israel not an explicitly Jewish state but just a "state of citizens." the latter two are deal breakers and like i said the former is becoming more circumscribed every year. at this pt tho idk that he even could accept a lesser offer even if he thought it was in his best interests since it would make previous rejections look particularly foolish. he's pot committed iow.

see what you can make happen after that.

Sounds ominous.

― Action of Boyle Man Prompts Visitor to Stay (Tom D.), 4. december 2017 20:27 (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah, it makes absolutely no sense.

Heavy airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition pounded Yemen’s capital overnight, targeting Sanaa’s densely populated neighborhoods in apparent retaliation for the killing of the former Yemeni president by the country’s Shiite rebels, residents said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/yemens-chaos-deepens-after-rebels-killed-ex-president-saleh/2017/12/05/4ccf0f62-d982-11e7-a241-0848315642d0_story.html?utm_term=.f879da77609a

NYT says the capital recognition is going forward

This is going to get ugly really fast.

based on what? threat of days of rage? they also raged bc israel put metal detectors at the temple mount.

based on apartheid

trump declaring that the US recognizes that jerusalem is the capital of israel will get ugly really fast because of apartheid. okay genius.

since the last u and i discussed this have you bothered looking into the issue at all or nah not really

based on what? threat of days of rage? they also raged bc israel put metal detectors at the temple mount.

― Mordy, Tuesday, December 5, 2017 7:22 PM (twenty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That, for starters, but that's not what I meant. This wrecks the whole process and sends ripples through the whole ME. It'll undo the extremely fragile 'not all-out war' phase we're in. USA is now officially out as middle man for any kind of talks (perhaps they were already, perhaps it's for the best etc). I suspect you can see why this will have huge repercussions.

Time for Russia to step up to the plate.

russia recognized w jerusalem as the capital months ago

presumably there were no threats of violence bc no one thinks russia cares. you only threaten violence when you think threats of violence can force the policy you want.

Russia recognised West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in the context of a future agreement that saw East Jerusalem as the capital of an independent Palestine, iirc. It’s not recognition outside of the context of the peace process.

“We reaffirm our commitment to the UN-approved principles for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement, which include the status of East Jerusalem as the capital of the future Palestinian state. At the same time, we must state that in this context we view West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel,” the Foreign Ministry in Moscow said in a statement.

in this context

The statement starts by condemning unilateral moves and ends by saying the status of Jerusalem needs to be decided by bilateral talks.

What I'm seeing about Trump's statement is that it'll be very similar saying something like that the final borders and status of Jerusalem will need to be determined in negotiations.

If Trump says that he will recognise West Jerusalem as a future capital, after the two state solution has been implemented, and not that he is moving th Embassy there immediately, I’m sure there will be a sigh of relief in a number of places.

it's trump he'll probably say something confusing that satisfies no one imo

Here’s hoping!

welp

BREAKING: President Trump calls on Saudi Arabia to end Yemen blockade immediately, citing humanitarian concerns.

— The Associated Press (@AP) December 6, 2017

Huh.

...let's see if they stick to that for more than 48 hours, I guess?

fwiw predicting the future is tricky business but i doubt this jerusalem thing becomes a huge deal. maybe there's some rioting, some casualties but predictions of broad destabilization around the middle east imo are overblown

Yeah, that never happens.

what never happens? broad destabilization around the middle east? it happens but normally bc you've overthrown a government or fomented a revolution not bc you make a symbolic speech

The Middle East being so stable at present.

The Arabian spring began because a fruitseller set himself on fire.

what are you guys arguing exactly? that this is going to make syria/iraq worse? that it'll destabilize egypt or turkey? i'm seeing a lot of hysteria out there about the ramifications of this speech but not a lot of clarity about what those ramifications will be. i doubt any governments fall bc of this.

I mean, I agree, it's probably just a 5% chance that this leads to Hezbollah taking over Lebanon, I'm just lolling a bit about that being the standard to measure this.

hezbollah are not going to "take over lebanon"

if hezbollah took over lebanon this would be like the 20th cause imo. you'd first look at syria, iran, the saudis, etc. obv any major shift in the middle east would be overdetermined but idk ppl have been anticipating trump starting ww3 since last nov. once his term is over do u think they will apologize for fearmongering?

what are you guys arguing exactly?

I'm agreeing with you. On this point.

Yeah, I agree, this probably won't lead to any governments falling. It's still utterly stupid. Going above the heads of the Palestinians is one thing, if it was a part of a good plan towards peace, but the plan seems to let Kushner and MBS do their thing together, and then rely on people hating Iran. It's not going to work, because nothing what either of those two idiots does ever works ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

relatedly so many ppl on social media claiming that this is the death knell of the peace process many of whom have said the exact same thing a dozen times over the last decade

the peace process has been long dead. this just makes it harder for people like abbas, "moderate arab" states, and the US to keep pretending they don't know that.

if you'd like but no one learned anything new today that they didn't know a year ago