brexit negging when yr mandate is is trash: or further chronicles of a garbage-fire

XP Belfast is a great town...hopefully this doesn't get too....bumpy

Surely the Tories know they can push the DUP as far as possible, due to them not wanting Corbyn in.

Pretty sure the DUP don't really care that much who's in charge in Westminster.

The way housing is going I'd consider moving north meself if they get a hybrid deal, civil servant euros will soon be the new bitcoin

Maybe I'm overrating how much the DUP hate Corbyn and Labour left then. xp

As I've said before, NI Unionists are indignant about being treated differently to the rest of the UK except when they're indignant about not being treated as different from the rest of the UK.

Or unless they’re trying to keep Sunday trading, abortion and LGBT rights away, then it’s fine.

Precisely.

Pretty sure the DUP don't really care that much who's in charge in Westminster.

this is bollocks - they're rabidly anti-corbyn. "ira sympathiser etc"

maybe somebody should just build the dup the time machine they've craved for all these years so they can go back to 1690

Pretty sure the DUP don't really care that much who's in charge in Westminster.
Sure they do. Corbyn explicitly supports a United Ireland, for one thing. He would be a lot more sympathetic to Irish people than any other prospective PM in a while. How do you think they'd react to direct rule under him?

this current deal with a weak tory party must be the peak of their relationship with britain as far as power and influence goes? given how volatile things are the trough could come with corbyn.

i dunno what paths would lead to a united ireland but with all this horse trading over borders it does seem like a lot of things are more up for grabs, or could be so in the blink of an eye.

DUP held sway before: i.e. over lab under gordon brown at some point in the late 90s or early 00s -- not sure how to judge -- except in the retrospect we haven't reached -- which is peak sway tho

tbh i'd say the official ulster unionists held stronger sway over labour in the late 70s (i think with the DUP's help) (stubbornly not looking this up obv) but the stakes were less, shooting war or no shooting war

(julio i was just amused at your sudden new enthusiasm for a. tory diplomatic competence and b. the commonsensical ability of the non-extreme to tame the extreme -- neither of these seem greatly in evidence)

(i'd *maaaaybe* put more of a questionmark than stephen bush does over the DUP's ability to paisley their way thru to what they want and hang the rest -- but this is literally the one thing they do and they have a lot of practice down the decades)

Here we go

If one part of UK can retain regulatory alignment with EU and effectively stay in the single market (which is the right solution for Northern Ireland) there is surely no good practical reason why others can’t.

— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) December 4, 2017

Varadkar speaking at 2.30 about a proposed border deal.

may also under pressure from tory "grandees" over the weekend re the continued role of the ECJ during the transitional period: the cut-off date is i think march (thanks to one of her unforced legislative errors) but to achieve the actual brexit she wants they need to still be around (i haven't quite twigged why i have to say: possibly bcz the person i read explaining it was JEREMY HUNT) (he says with out it -- and without fully backing her resusicating it -- no brexit at all)

the pressure here (re the ECJ) is probably more important than the details

Here'e Stephen Bush again. Though if I'm still confused after reading a Stephen Bush explainer, things are bad

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/has-theresa-may-avoided-crisis-irish-border-or-just-delayed-it

lol mark well that's one way to read my post.

Its not competence, they don't know much about anything but Tories I thnk still know a thing or two about diggng their heels in (look at the MPs saying they share passwords in constituency offices w/staff, all so that Damian Green could survive), are shameless, and ultimately did cut a deal with the DUP swiftly. They are limping around but this government isn't dead, its going on.

DUP held sway before: i.e. over lab under gordon brown at some point in the late 90s or early 00s

Really?

Yeah I thought Brown had talks with them but it never came to any deal?

Its all on the DUP who know what they want and know the boundaries (lol boundary) of what is actually and politically possible and know that the combination of those two things is a null set.

The maximum power they could have wished for and they are desperate to opt out but there isn't even that option, as it is they are simply refusing to govern NI at present because no democratically acceptable governance can be digested by their core membership.

It's all a rather neat end to an artificially sustained system of bigotry in power tbh I just hope enough of the external powers maintain their current positions so that they don't get to return to their dissonant existence without ceding entirely from a say in running the statelet.

haha knew i shd have should have looked it up: yes brown went to the DUP in 2010 when he had a hung parliament but could not seal the deal (so the sway never really came into effect, unless you read it as SO MUCH sway they simply brought an end to brown)

one of the things we're abt to find out is whether sir-humphrey-esque wordgames in these kinds of agreements -- where the negotiators of difft sides deliberately choose agree to read the same words as having difft meanings -- can actually function in the age of the internet (when the fact of this shared fiction is instantly undermined)

There we are:

Breaking...

Ominous comments from Arlene Foster: "We will not accept any form of regulatory divergence which separates NI economically or politically from the rest of the UK."

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) December 4, 2017

good luck with that

I find it impossible to read any DUP statement, without hearing it in that voice from the Harry Enfield sketch.

What odds of this insoluble clusterfuck bringing down the Tories any time soon?

This is also my question.

What odds of this insoluble clusterfuck bringing down the Tories any time soon?

― calzino, Monday, 4 December 2017 14:25 (three minutes

2018 elections odds dropped from 9/4 to 7/4, now clear favourite ahead of 2019 and 2022

Too early to say about government, but I would be surprised if May survives to the New Year.

this is all getting very confusing

RTÉ says Taoiseach's statement now postponed as "the meeting between Mrs May and Mr Juncker is ongoing in Brussels".

The timing of the DUP statement (before Varadkar at 2.30) has done a job.

#wegotthis

Huge ramifications for London if Theresa May has conceded that it's possible for part of the UK to remain within the single market & customs union after Brexit. Londoners overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and a similar deal here could protect tens of thousands of jobs.

— Mayor of London (@MayorofLondon) December 4, 2017

Technically they don't actually need the agreement of the DUP here, right? But it's a gamble that they won't just take their ball and go home.

huge ramifications for hackney if theresa may has conceded it's possible for part of the uk to remain within the single market

each person should decide whether they personally should be part of the single market or not

three things in may's medium-term survival's favour:

1: the structure the EU has kindly provided (stage 1: talks abt talks, stage 2: details) does allow her to kick the can a little down the road re the stuff foster (and others) want to lose their shit abt -- she can say "plz to not lose yr shit until we reach the stage where it's relevant" by which time enough other things may be in place to mollify key pressure groups (e.g. not sure they have an actual pressure point to lose their right-now shit at: parliament doesn't have to vote for us to go through to stage 2, and the vetoes all happen at the end) (a threatened veto can distort a negotiation but actually it needn't in the diplomats on point keep their heads)
2: no one faction or party can bring her down and the anti-may coalition is surprisingly hard to configure
3: LITERALLY NO ONE ELSE WANTS THIS CHALICE IT IS VERY VERY POISONED

caveat: "politics, dead boy, politics" (in which a week is a long time iirc)

Oh no

Do re me fa DUP: Listen to Arlene Foster belt out a classic Mariah Carey tune for charity https://t.co/QbinX9wKTS

— TheJournal.ie (@thejournal_ie) December 4, 2017

needn't in s/b needn't if

also "politics DEAR boy" politics is canon, tho i now prefer my version

elementary my dead watson

But this is creepy politicians we’re discussing, dead boys not necessarily off the menu.

Leo making an outside run at PM imo

Theresa May ringing Arlene Foster later today to pitch deal. V angry DUP source adds: "We made it clear none of this is acceptable. We'd prefer WTO instead of this". https://t.co/0txBeNajeO

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) December 4, 2017

and

BREAK: Sky sources - the Prime Minister spoke to Arlene Foster by telephone within minutes of the @DUPleader's statement. If anyone thinks the C&S agreement is not an issue, think again. #Brexit

— David Blevins (@skydavidblevins) December 4, 2017

popcorn.gif

Anguilla, a tiny British territory in the Caribbean, has warned that the island could face economic disaster after Brexit https://t.co/4UCksoYTCL

— The Times of London (@thetimes) December 4, 2017

Wales gone too

We cannot allow different parts of the UK to be more favourably treated than others. If one part of the UK is granted continued participation in the Single Market & Customs Union, then we fully expect to be made the same offer.

— Carwyn Jones (@fmwales) December 4, 2017

So here we go again. #london and #Scotland dominating news headlines about they want after this likely Irish deal. And Yorkshire's voice? Not heard...#oneyorkshire

— Yorkshire Party (@Yorkshire_Party) December 4, 2017

Irish deal!

Who will stand up for Cornwall?