brexit negging when yr mandate is is trash: or further chronicles of a garbage-fire

http://www.nigelmarlinbalchin.co.uk/photos/book%20covers/web%20mark%20spade%20omnibus.jpg

the myth that labour was ever in some sense vulnerable in the north (caveat: for the purposes of this essay, scotland is not the north)

https://medium.com/@marwood_lennox/the-labour-party-and-the-north-of-england-a-statistical-analysis-aka-the-discourse-must-die-a1be42097c28

Just applied for Universal Credit. If you have been abroad for a period of more than 4 weeks continuously (INCLUDING a holiday), you aren't eligible!

???

What, ever?

(That ought to be a joke, but it isn't. Sadistic fucks are totally capable of putting that in to completely impoverish god knows how many people)

sorry - within the last two years

wtf! This UC travesty doesn't need fine tuning like some moderates are suggesting, the whole system is completely rotten to the core and needs scrapping. Best of luck to you C B.

So, if you worked in Spain, e.g. Ibiza for a summer, 18 months ago, dot dot dot

I'm not sure whether to just lie on the application or to go for job seekers allowance maybe the same is the case there too. I don't know how they check

So, if you worked in Spain, e.g. Ibiza for a summer, 18 months ago, dot dot dot

if you go watch the World Cup!

you should have been saving those pennies you immoral spendthrift

England fans booking off four weeks for the World Cup indicates an attitude to projecting future outcomes that deserves crushing IMHO.

Unless it's meant to stop Nomdomdoms from claiming it?

If more people took their holidays in Blackpool, it would significantly lower the UK's destitution levels :p

the myth that labour was ever in some sense vulnerable in the north (caveat: for the purposes of this essay, scotland is not the north)

https://medium.com/@marwood_lennox/the-labour-party-and-the-north-of-england-a-statistical-analysis-aka-the-discourse-must-die-a1be42097c28

― mark s, Monday, 4 December 2017 00:33 (ten hours ago) Permalink

Liked how it really restricts the North (and defines exactly what the lines are). Thanks.

So if there's a customs border in the Irish sea, does that mean losing the DUP over this or what?

actual regional policy obviously requires more lines and less guesswork and handwaving -- this info has been available to any pundit prepared to do their homework

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1204/924815-single-market-eu-negotiations/

take that lads

a nation once again... in terms of trade

so NI gets to stay in the single market? neat trick

surely this means wales or scotland could try to do so too

The DUP are against this because....it's a further weakening of their place in the union?

Trying to see the downside besides but I......struggle to think like the DUP tbh

but then as alba says, govt loses DUP. and with it its governing majority and.. its authority to negotiate brexit lol seriously tho

i guess anything that treats the island of ireland as one entity is disagreeable to them, not to suggest they're some of the most dire retrograde incompetents to ever take office or anything like that.

look forward to independent england begging to join the eu in 2027

Any good analysis out there on eg odds of and mechanisms through which Scotland break away to retain EU membership, and further parliamentary ramifications of same, etc

i guess anything that treats the island of ireland as one entity is disagreeable to them

I'm not even sure this is true tbh, I think anything that they think works to their advantage is agreeable to them.

would a hard border work to their advantage tho? i don't see how.

Is anyone in NI in favour of that?

Right now, Ireland is powerfully demonstrating the importance of being independent when it comes to defending your vital national interests

— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) December 4, 2017

This is what Arlene Foster said before:

"The Prime Minister understands the needs of Northern Ireland and we of course welcome the fact that she has been very clear in relation to the fact that there cannot be a border down the Irish Sea.

“There has been some currency given to that recently, particularly from the European Union side.

“But of course she very clearly understands that that would be a disaster for Northern Ireland and would be a red line for us in the Democratic Unionist Party.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/12/arlene-foster-rejects-prospect-post-brexit-irish-sea-border/

as i understand it, DUP are threatening to decline to continue to offer confidence and supply if a sea border is established (or more generally if NI is treated in any way difft from the rest of the UK)

(ie the post-election agreement they had with may would come to an end)

this wd put this govt at risk of falling (failiing to get any of its legislation through) at which point the spectre of failing a vote of confidence begins to arise (it used to be triggered automatically, now it has actually to be proposed and voted through, which is a higher hurdle -- i suspect the DUP will continue to support the govt despite the C&S failing, but of course they can extract further concessions with every vote)

at some point, sooner rather than later, the agreement with the DUP breaking down would cause the the govt to fall: DUP doesn't want this (it REALLY doesn't want a corbyn govt) but it is GOOD at brinkmanship

Surely the Tories know they can push the DUP as far as possible, due to them not wanting Corbyn in.

in a way i can see the DUP's point: hey UK, you say you want to be independent of the EU? then how come you're taking Ireland's side in this? and not ours? when we are part of you?!

stephen bush is always good on the irish issue (he was crossly bringing it up many months ago)

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/time-running-out-theresa-may-address-irish-brexit-problem
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/could-brexit-come-unstuck-because-irish-border
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/could-irish-border-bring-down-conservative-government
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/what-are-risks-dup-if-it-pulls-plug-theresa-may

Surely the Tories know

centrist julio rising lol

Thanks mark

yeah this is it:

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, the only option that avoids a hard border on the island of Ireland or in the Irish Sea is for the whole of the UK to stay within the regulatory orbit of the EU. That's also the only way to secure a trade deal with anything like the same level of market access that the EU and UK enjoy now. The only real question is whether a Conservative prime minister can survive that – or if a drastic Brexit is the price the United Kingdom pays for the governing party's preoccupations.

except even this conclusion elides the border question

Belfast is brilliant, I’m upping sticks

in a way i can see the DUP's point: hey UK, you say you want to be independent of the EU? then how come you're taking Ireland's side in this? and not ours? when we are part of you?!

― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 4 December 2017 12:23 (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It's only a point if you were ignoring the actual necessities, the stuff literally hardcoded into any possible brexit.

Which yknow obv but still

fwiw I don't think there is a logically reconcilable DUP position and this current situation is a point of no return inevitable since....I'd say 1995 but tbh since Redmond..... Election result and Brexit have brought it to a head but it would've happened organically (iykwim) regardless.

Feel kinda optimistic about the whole thing.

XP Belfast is a great town...hopefully this doesn't get too....bumpy

Surely the Tories know they can push the DUP as far as possible, due to them not wanting Corbyn in.

Pretty sure the DUP don't really care that much who's in charge in Westminster.

The way housing is going I'd consider moving north meself if they get a hybrid deal, civil servant euros will soon be the new bitcoin

Maybe I'm overrating how much the DUP hate Corbyn and Labour left then. xp

As I've said before, NI Unionists are indignant about being treated differently to the rest of the UK except when they're indignant about not being treated as different from the rest of the UK.

Or unless they’re trying to keep Sunday trading, abortion and LGBT rights away, then it’s fine.

Precisely.

Pretty sure the DUP don't really care that much who's in charge in Westminster.

this is bollocks - they're rabidly anti-corbyn. "ira sympathiser etc"

maybe somebody should just build the dup the time machine they've craved for all these years so they can go back to 1690

Pretty sure the DUP don't really care that much who's in charge in Westminster.
Sure they do. Corbyn explicitly supports a United Ireland, for one thing. He would be a lot more sympathetic to Irish people than any other prospective PM in a while. How do you think they'd react to direct rule under him?

this current deal with a weak tory party must be the peak of their relationship with britain as far as power and influence goes? given how volatile things are the trough could come with corbyn.

i dunno what paths would lead to a united ireland but with all this horse trading over borders it does seem like a lot of things are more up for grabs, or could be so in the blink of an eye.