brexit negging when yr mandate is is trash: or further chronicles of a garbage-fire

In a saner world the financial sector would be a key agent of that rebalancing though, by investing long-term in the kind of productive industries that would allow other parts of the country to grow. But a lot of the City resists that - you need very long-term and high-risk lending - and government has had no real interest in making them do it because the City was generating so much tax in and of itself. The upshot is that, over a period of decades, the government has become dangerously over-reliant on the financial sector for revenue - financial services are a relatively small part of the economy but account for a huge slice of the exchequer.

The result of this is probably going to be that, when push comes to shove, the govt will do pretty much anything to keep the banks here even at the expense of enraging their more Brexit fundamentalist backbenchers. If we don't crash out on WTO rules, I'm not sure the impact on the financial sector is going to be that pronounced.

On the other hand it might be a lot harder for them to recruit internationally and that may cause some banks to just go "fuck this". But London has a cultural cache internationally that a lot of the mooted alternatives just don't have. A tech exodus to Berlin is one thing but London is still likely to be more attractive to individual bankers than Frankfurt or Switzerland.

We're much more likely to lose what remains of manufacturing and that's going to have a massive impact on a lot of places that voted for Brexit.

financial services are a relatively small part of the economy but account for a huge slice of the exchequer

7.2% of the economy and 11.5% of total government receipts according to a crafty google - that's a difference but maybe not such a big difference?

(I agree with your overall point, mind.)

Q. is what proportion of the London economy is FS?

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06193/SN06193.pdf

says 16.3%

7.2% of the economy and 11.5% of total government receipts according to a crafty google - that's a difference but maybe not such a big difference?

Ah right, I thought the gap was bigger than that. Still big enough for the government not to want to take chance on it (especially when it also means donations + votes).

says 16.3%

I'm guessing that's not including the various companies (software, information, restaurants, whatever) that also depend on it. An issue the government will presumably factor in, in a way they never did when thinking about the knock-on effects of public spending cuts on the private sector.

Maybe they'll be prepared to let the whole thing go to the wall, but you don't rebalance an economy by tanking one part of it, you do it by building up the other parts as quickly as possible. It doesn't look like "the market" as they currently understand it is going to be capable of doing that post-Brexit, especially as it hasn't really done so up until now.

We're much more likely to lose what remains of manufacturing and that's going to have a massive impact on a lot of places that voted for Brexit.

― Matt DC, Friday, 24 November 2017 10:44 (thirty-two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

precisely. this will not be pretty.

Kate Hoey everybody.

"We’re not the ones who are going to be putting up the physical border. If it ends up with a no deal we won’t be putting up the border - they’ll have to pay for it, because it doesn’t need to happen.

Hoey also said that Switzerland and Norway provided examples of how countries outside the EU could operate relatively soft border arrangements with the EU. She suggested that the Irish government was being unduly negative about the problem.

A lot of the technology, at the Swiss border and in Norway, is done actually away from the border - and of course the prime minister has said that she doesn’t want cameras at the border.

There are ways of doing this. Why don’t the Irish government actually become more positive about this and start looking at solutions with their closest neighbour and closest partner? After all, we are a friend of the Republic of Ireland, the relations have never been as good.

And yet on this issue it seems like they are more concerned to keep the rest of the EU satisfied than actually looking at concrete positive proposals."

lmao

She is awful.

I have no idea how this circle can be squared. You can’t have a border between ROI and NI, logically you can’t have a customs border between NI and the rest of the UK and you can’t really have hard Brexit without one or the other. Good to know we have the finest minds on it though.

i mean.. norway is an EEA country. switzerland is in the single market. this is the entire point.

yeah i am far from au fait with the technical details but on the surface it does look entirely irreconcilable.

the only thing standing in the way of the UK staying in the single market though is theresa may and her foot-shooting red lines, right? the uk can still leave the EU, can still implement the border controls that tony blair chose not to, and remain part of single market / customs union.

I was going to post yesterday to say that surely Liam Fox isn't threatening the peace and security of Ireland by using the border as a trading chip because only a maniac would do that but of course I forgot Labour's very own house maniac.

customs border between NI and the UK might have difficulties but feels like the most likely solution at the moment afaict

DUP says no

I'm sure they do but it's not like they're in oh wait

Just to point out that you can have a border between NI and ourselves we had one before and it was fine iirc

I mean sure look there was the thing but cmon we're beyond that now aren't we? Chuckle brothers! Paisley dead, McGuinness dead? I just can't see the problem here.

*starts investing in Semtex*

"DUP says no"

isn't this their usual obstinate position on just about everything - apart from "mo' marching, mo' bibles" and "fancy a billion?".

You're forgetting "if they get one we want one too" and "I'm on my side I never touched her side she's lying"

not that i'm an expert by any means but putting a hard border between NI and the rest of the UK seems to me like something the DUP would be willing to go to the wall on. it's like the whole reason they exist.

well that and flexing their muscles at catholics

I think that the comforts enjoyed by most voters along all stripes since peace broke out might make a full return to previous stock positions difficult, but to even start back along the path would encourage all the wrong individuals, groups and instincts and there's a reason "they haven't gone away, you know" is an oft-repeated truism.

ie I think leaders of any calibre could take the voting masses in the right direction from here, but there aren't any, and all environmental inputs would appear to be pointing backwards

This was an issue even during the campaign, I'm sure they'll have thought of something by now...

DUP aims as of this June (ie two days before the election, acc.the BB):

— frictionless border with the Irish Republic; assisting those working or travelling in the other jurisdiction
— Northern Ireland established as a hub for trade from the Irish Republic into the broader UK market
— comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the EU
— arrangements to facilitate ease of movement of people, goods and services

and i believe their position on Brexit was 1) leave 2) remain in the customs union

surely if they are good for anything they can be good for holding may's minority government to ransom over this probably best-case brexit scenario?

THATS A PRETTY FUCKING BIG "IF"

just saying

granted

"Threatened". It kills these guys that they have to deal with Ireland as an equal. Absolutely kills them.
This, my friends, is why we are, and will remain, members of the European Union. https://t.co/Swd8nndt5f

— Jason O'Mahony (@jasonomahony) November 26, 2017

quoting

UK threatened by Ireland. A tiny country that relies on UK for its existence. We should advise, we are free to revoke common travel area.

— Gerard Batten MEP (@GerardBattenMEP) November 26, 2017

RIP Batten, whoever the fuck you are.

can't believe a UKIP MEP is a pig-ignorant xenophobe

Pooling sovereignty. Is that like sharing virginity?

— Gerard Batten MEP (@GerardBattenMEP) November 26, 2017

uhhh

fun fact: the "UK" in UKIP is short for "United Kingdom", a state made up of 4 countries with shared sovereignty.

ok NI isn't a country but you know what I mean

Still 18 more months until next Euro Parl elections :[

those aims were pre-election: the post-election situation is different, in that the DUP has already secured quite a large amount of money for NI, against a confidence-and-supply deal -- i don't think we know whether this support was actually firmed up and nailed down for a situation like this but if anyone can find room to further turn the screw (for even more money? or other concessions?) it's the DUP

i just want to say that i believe good progress is being made itt. but more remains to be done. i am feeling positive.

"The final result is far from a foregone conclusion because voting is carried out on a one-member-one-vote basis and candidates such as Izzard have a huge national profile."

Yasmine Dar – 206.

Rachel Garnham – 188.

Jon Lansman – 182

Eddie Izzard – 71.

Must remember to send my NEC ballot off in a few days, I'm not even thinking about the composition of the NEC - fucking off Eddie Izzard again is my main motivation.

who needs any other incentive than thwarting the sharp-witted SDP supporter?

like all good Blairite running dogs our Edward claims to have "no agenda"

some of his profuse gushing + fawning claptrap on Brown/Blair from back in the day is almost too painful to read.

I wd suggest that he is not a deep thinker

just had a nightmare vision of Martin Freeman running for the NEC

god imagine a political party composed of loveable light entertainment legends and Ed Balls

it's easy if you try

https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/hostedimages/1426273565i/13996065._SX540_.jpg

imagining Izzard vs Brand in a furious debate on post-Marxism and whether that would be funnier than their actual acts in 2017