but in 2017 it doesn’t really address any issues that are interesting to most sabermetricians
I have no idea what this is supposed to mean. WPA, run expectancy, and pitcher leverage indices aren't interesting to most sabermetricians?
The basic point is still the same: context is relevant for evaluating past performance, but not for predicting future performance. The people arguing against that point are the ones jumping to silly conclusions, like in that BP article. Literally nobody is saying that Votto's walks are meaningless unless someone drives him in, that's a strawman argument. Bill James isn't the problem here.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 24 November 2017 03:20 (six years ago) link
context is relevant for evaluating past performance only if you wish to evaluate past performance in context :)
WPA and the like are fine for that, but those are a good deal more sophisticated than what i was commenting on. sorry, didn't mean to imply context-dependent stats don't have currency in the current sabermetric world -- of course they do. i personally don't care for them much, but that is just due to the questions i find interesting ("who are the best players?" rather than "who got luckiest this year?"). i agree with mookie in that i wish the award would just go to the player who played best that year (although not necessarily the "best player")
i will admit that i don't understand the granularity of win shares well enough (for some reason it seems to be impossible to find a good article on this...) to comment on it for certain, but my assumption is that because it is derived from total team wins, players on teams with better records might have an advantage. maybe that is incorrect
― k3vin k., Friday, 24 November 2017 06:27 (six years ago) link
https://deadspin.com/major-league-baseballs-statcast-can-break-sabermetrics-1820987737
finally getting around to reading this
― k3vin k., Monday, 1 January 2018 18:29 (six years ago) link
cameron to the padres
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-one-i-never-thought-i-would-write
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 10 January 2018 16:02 (six years ago) link
goodness gracious
a team shd hire me
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 10 January 2018 16:05 (six years ago) link
damn, this one hurts. not great for the saber community when all its best writers get scooped up by MLB teams and their work becomes proprietary
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 10 January 2018 16:24 (six years ago) link
which is partly what that article I posted above is about
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 10 January 2018 16:26 (six years ago) link
this isn't new info, but the visualization is pretty cool: https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=radar%20from%3AMattEddyBA&src=typd
― mookieproof, Monday, 22 January 2018 22:21 (six years ago) link
vlad jr is a beast
― mookieproof, Monday, 22 January 2018 22:23 (six years ago) link
read and vote, if you like
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/sabr-analytics-awards-voting-now-open-2/
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 February 2018 16:12 (six years ago) link
You might notice some subtle changes to WAR. That's because of a new update we've rolled out that includes some improved or new data! Here's what you need to know https://t.co/odY5lVdYtb pic.twitter.com/Zq3kAmPua0— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) March 15, 2018
― mookieproof, Thursday, 15 March 2018 16:26 (six years ago) link
Only 70 players, not league-wide, but interesting anyway:
http://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-vote-for-stats-they-value-most/c-274986480
No votes for pitcher wins, but, somewhat amazingly, three for batting average.
― clemenza, Monday, 7 May 2018 23:52 (six years ago) link
Not sure why that doesn't link. One more try:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-vote-for-stats-they-value-most/c-274986480
― clemenza, Monday, 7 May 2018 23:53 (six years ago) link
something to be said for players ranking games played/innings.
― campreverb, Wednesday, 9 May 2018 00:15 (six years ago) link
probably the one I'd pick, if you're getting innings you're probably being pretty valuable to your team
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 9 May 2018 03:53 (six years ago) link
or you have a really bad manager, in a few cases. i definitely that in general more playing time is a positive indicator, especially IP for starting pitchers. for position players, it's a little more muddy. for every star like joey votto, stanton, or blackmon in the top 10 list of games played of 2017, there's also an alcides escobar, rougned odor, and (non-2018 version of) nick markakis.
― obviously DLC (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 9 May 2018 04:04 (six years ago) link
Shameless self-promotion: The Infield Shift has a tragic and hidden flaw and should be (mostly) shelved. @baseballpro https://t.co/lgVNAE5d3d— Russell A. Carleton (@pizzacutter4) May 22, 2018
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 22 May 2018 19:06 (five years ago) link
Wow, look at the single season leaders in strike outs at the plate and how many are from the last decade or so.
Rob Deer is a contact hitter by comparison.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SO_season.shtml
Rank Player (age that year) Strikeouts Year Bats1. Mark Reynolds (25) 223 2009 R2. Adam Dunn (32) 222 2012 L3. Chris Davis (30) 219 2016 L4. Chris Carter (26) 212 2013 R5. Mark Reynolds (26) 211 2010 R6. Chris Davis (29) 208 2015 L Aaron Judge (25) 208 2017 R8. Chris Carter (29) 206 2016 R9. Drew Stubbs (26) 205 2011 R10. Mark Reynolds (24) 204 2008 R11. Kris Bryant (23) 199 2015 R Chris Davis (27) 199 2013 L Adam Dunn (30) 199 2010 L Ryan Howard (27) 199 2007 L Ryan Howard (28) 199 2008 L16. Jack Cust (29) 197 2008 L17. Joey Gallo (23) 196 2017 L Mark Reynolds (27) 196 2011 R19. Chris Davis (31) 195 2017 L Khris Davis (29) 195 2017 R Adam Dunn (24) 195 2004 L Curtis Granderson (31) 195 2012 L23. Adam Dunn (26) 194 2006 L Mike Napoli (34) 194 2016 R25. Trevor Story (24) 191 2017 R26. Ryan Howard (34) 190 2014 L27. Bobby Bonds (24) 189 1970 R Adam Dunn (33) 189 2013 L Danny Espinosa (25) 189 2012 B30. Jose Hernandez (32) 188 2002 R31. Bobby Bonds (23) 187 1969 R
― earlnash, Tuesday, 5 June 2018 22:23 (five years ago) link
steve carlton's best K/9 in any season was 8.7 (it was 7.1 for his career)
so far this season the average, among 93 qualifying pitchers, is 8.6
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 5 June 2018 22:51 (five years ago) link
read in a recent post that fangraphs will soon debut a K+ stat
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 5 June 2018 23:24 (five years ago) link
One thing I think about modern baseball is just how big the whole league is anymore. Dudes like the Big Unit, Dave Kingman or Richie Sexton were odd balls of their day being so tall and now every team has a bunch of guys 6-5 and taller.
― earlnash, Tuesday, 5 June 2018 23:40 (five years ago) link
many of them pitchers.
― the ignatius rock of ignorance (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 5 June 2018 23:42 (five years ago) link
https://imgur.com/a/NFXUl6u
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 6 June 2018 01:16 (five years ago) link
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 6 June 2018 01:22 (five years ago) link
I'm mad that Sixto Sanchez isn't 6'2"
― challops trap house (Will M.), Wednesday, 6 June 2018 02:40 (five years ago) link
Not sure if there would be an article out there on that but I’m interested in analysis about players who lose their ability or perhaps willingness to draw a walk as they age. Specifically thinking about someone like Albert Pujols, and whether or not it has mostly to do with pitchers challenging him more as his skills erode, thereby not pitching around him anymore + not IBBing him nearly as much (if ever!) I’m interested primarily bc of the many aging players who either retain those skills or sometimes even improve them over time (one example: Willie Mays drawing a career-best 112 walks in his age 40 season.)
My guess is there’s a lot related to bat speed and players having to cheat a bit more, which means they’re simply not going to be able to wait that extra split second anymore. But it’s interesting to me how some players completely lose a skill that seems to be one that would age well (and often and perhaps usually does!)
― omar little, Sunday, 17 June 2018 20:17 (five years ago) link
i think with pujols specifically it's that pitchers aren't afraid to challenge him anymore. same with the ghost of chris davis. i'm not so sure that they necessarily had a walk 'skill' so much as it was a by-product of their other skills
curtis granderson, on the other hand, has seen his walk rate go up even as his power fades. it is intersting
― mookieproof, Sunday, 17 June 2018 21:01 (five years ago) link
James once wrote about the Mays phenomenon--great hitters who lose their bat speed and become more selective to compensate.
― clemenza, Sunday, 17 June 2018 22:41 (five years ago) link
I saw this stat and read the list and had a good chuckle on how many of these guys I knew as players from baseball cards or reading the Sporting News all the time as a kid.
Yonder Alonso: Similar Batters through 30
Sid Bream (966.4)Doug Mientkiewicz (959.4)David Segui (955.0)Mike Ivie (946.9)John Mabry (941.7)Casey Kotchman (940.1)Nick Etten (939.0)Gerald Perry (938.2)Babe Dahlgren (937.0)Todd Benzinger (936.7)
― earlnash, Thursday, 12 July 2018 02:12 (five years ago) link
https://www.tradingcarddb.com/Images/Cards/Baseball/80/80-445Fr.jpg
― earlnash, Thursday, 12 July 2018 02:14 (five years ago) link
I’m not sure how, but a cleveland reliever got a save tonight in a 19-4 win
― k3vin k., Thursday, 12 July 2018 03:07 (five years ago) link
Think if you pitch three innings or more it doesn't matter what the score is.
― timellison, Thursday, 12 July 2018 05:28 (five years ago) link
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/24/sports/baseball/24rangers.html
― mookieproof, Thursday, 12 July 2018 14:14 (five years ago) link
Today around the #statcast lab we worked on naming/defining a bunch of new metrics around reaction, burst, & route-running, and I'm very excited for them to be ready. We also kicked around what's driving the xwOBA-wOBA gap we're seeing, because that definitely seems like a thing.— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) July 19, 2018
― mookieproof, Friday, 20 July 2018 17:17 (five years ago) link
the xwOBA-wOBA gap😕
― a shomin-geki poster with some horror elements (WilliamC), Friday, 20 July 2018 17:22 (five years ago) link
it's league-wide, too, right?
this gap is going to be the end of us all
― Karl Malone, Friday, 20 July 2018 17:27 (five years ago) link
here is the draft schedule for the Boston Saberseminar
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VID-J4MUyRtzsXv3o9Ie7pH029VVb8GJ6jJfFNGBnOY/edit#gid=0
― the ignatius rock of ignorance (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 July 2018 17:59 (five years ago) link
...so former players Fernando Perez and Nate Freiman will be presenting.
― the ignatius rock of ignorance (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 July 2018 19:24 (five years ago) link
https://imgur.com/a/Z04LVtfis this becoming a thing??
― francisF, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:39 (five years ago) link
https://imgur.com/a/Z04LVtf
― francisF, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:40 (five years ago) link
god, i hope it becomes a thing.
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:47 (five years ago) link
*sigh*https://image.ibb.co/byvn8o/Screen_Shot_2018_07_24_at_9_22_55_PM.png
― francisF, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:48 (five years ago) link
It was kinda bizarre listening to broadcasters extol the virtues of advanced stats for a half-inning; it was awesome, i don't know if it's a regular thing anyone does
― francisF, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:54 (five years ago) link
BABIP is kind of a weird one to use
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 25 July 2018 01:55 (five years ago) link
honestly if they could only pick 3, i'd take BB%, K%, and OPS. it's usually possible to get a decent idea of what kind of batter someone is by those measures alone
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 25 July 2018 04:10 (five years ago) link
wRC+, OBP, ISO
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 July 2018 04:15 (five years ago) link
bWAR, fWAR, GWAR
― challops trap house (Will M.), Wednesday, 25 July 2018 18:32 (five years ago) link
babip is also not a weighted metric
― ant banks and wasp (voodoo chili), Thursday, 26 July 2018 01:51 (five years ago) link
ha good catch
― k3vin k., Thursday, 26 July 2018 04:18 (five years ago) link
Got curious so searched for baseball's best inning-eaters and came across these numbers on a fantasy baseball site.
Starters throwing a heavyweight innings workload over a season are a declining breed. The number of starters pitching at least 180 innings has dropped year-on-year.
2014: 66 starters 2015: 56 starters 2016: 45 starters 2017: 35 starters
The trend is dramatic, and although it is unlikely to fall by another 10 this season, it is also unlikely to increase. So in 2018, there are only likely to be 30-35 heavyweight starters.
Looking up the top innings pitched numbers in MLB, there is a decent chance that the number might not hit 30 starters throwing 180 innings.
― earlnash, Friday, 27 July 2018 00:37 (five years ago) link