rolling sabermetrics and statistics thread

One thing I remember from James in the 80s is the notion that a team's, let's say, 3rd run scored in any given game was more valuable than, say, their 10th run in any game that they happened to score that many, because a 10th run is generally less necessary for a win. Wouldn't that argue that the player who homers in four straight games is more valuable in that four-game stretch than the player who hits four in one game and then nothing?

Yes, that's exactly what I was getting at.

I guess it comes down to a) the first guy greatly increases the likelihood you'll come away with at least one win in the series, vs. b) the other guy increases your chances in three games, but you still could get swept.

Right, the counterargument would be that a 4 HR game basically guarantees you the win, whereas HRs in four straight games will score you some runs but won't guarantee a win. But to me that's kind of like claiming that a HR is equal to four singles, i.e. the HR guarantees you at least one run, whereas four singles gives you four chances to score runs but doesn't guarantee you'll score. And I probably don't have to explain why that's a fallacy (e.g. acc. to linear weights, a single is worth 0.4 runs on average, whereas a HR is worth 1.4 runs).

One thing I remember from James in the 80s is the notion that a team's, let's say, 3rd run scored in any given game was more valuable than, say, their 10th run in any game that they happened to score that many, because a 10th run is generally less necessary for a win. Wouldn't that argue that the player who homers in four straight games is more valuable in that four-game stretch than the player who hits four in one game and then nothing?

this is the sort of trivia that was probably interesting or even groundbreaking back in james’ day when no one had really given it serious thought before. but in 2017 it doesn’t really address any issues that are interesting to most sabermetricians

Except, it would seem, to the guy who invented sabermetrics.

game done changed

but in 2017 it doesn’t really address any issues that are interesting to most sabermetricians

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean. WPA, run expectancy, and pitcher leverage indices aren't interesting to most sabermetricians?

The basic point is still the same: context is relevant for evaluating past performance, but not for predicting future performance. The people arguing against that point are the ones jumping to silly conclusions, like in that BP article. Literally nobody is saying that Votto's walks are meaningless unless someone drives him in, that's a strawman argument. Bill James isn't the problem here.

context is relevant for evaluating past performance only if you wish to evaluate past performance in context :)

WPA and the like are fine for that, but those are a good deal more sophisticated than what i was commenting on. sorry, didn't mean to imply context-dependent stats don't have currency in the current sabermetric world -- of course they do. i personally don't care for them much, but that is just due to the questions i find interesting ("who are the best players?" rather than "who got luckiest this year?"). i agree with mookie in that i wish the award would just go to the player who played best that year (although not necessarily the "best player")

i will admit that i don't understand the granularity of win shares well enough (for some reason it seems to be impossible to find a good article on this...) to comment on it for certain, but my assumption is that because it is derived from total team wins, players on teams with better records might have an advantage. maybe that is incorrect

https://deadspin.com/major-league-baseballs-statcast-can-break-sabermetrics-1820987737

finally getting around to reading this

cameron to the padres

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-one-i-never-thought-i-would-write

goodness gracious

a team shd hire me

damn, this one hurts. not great for the saber community when all its best writers get scooped up by MLB teams and their work becomes proprietary

which is partly what that article I posted above is about

this isn't new info, but the visualization is pretty cool: https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=radar%20from%3AMattEddyBA&src=typd

vlad jr is a beast

read and vote, if you like

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/sabr-analytics-awards-voting-now-open-2/

You might notice some subtle changes to WAR. That's because of a new update we've rolled out that includes some improved or new data! Here's what you need to know https://t.co/odY5lVdYtb pic.twitter.com/Zq3kAmPua0

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) March 15, 2018

Only 70 players, not league-wide, but interesting anyway:

http://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-vote-for-stats-they-value-most/c-274986480

No votes for pitcher wins, but, somewhat amazingly, three for batting average.

Not sure why that doesn't link. One more try:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-vote-for-stats-they-value-most/c-274986480

something to be said for players ranking games played/innings.

probably the one I'd pick, if you're getting innings you're probably being pretty valuable to your team

or you have a really bad manager, in a few cases. i definitely that in general more playing time is a positive indicator, especially IP for starting pitchers. for position players, it's a little more muddy. for every star like joey votto, stanton, or blackmon in the top 10 list of games played of 2017, there's also an alcides escobar, rougned odor, and (non-2018 version of) nick markakis.

Shameless self-promotion: The Infield Shift has a tragic and hidden flaw and should be (mostly) shelved. @baseballpro https://t.co/lgVNAE5d3d

— Russell A. Carleton (@pizzacutter4) May 22, 2018

Wow, look at the single season leaders in strike outs at the plate and how many are from the last decade or so.

Rob Deer is a contact hitter by comparison.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SO_season.shtml

Rank Player (age that year) Strikeouts Year Bats
1. Mark Reynolds (25) 223 2009 R
2. Adam Dunn (32) 222 2012 L
3. Chris Davis (30) 219 2016 L
4. Chris Carter (26) 212 2013 R
5. Mark Reynolds (26) 211 2010 R
6. Chris Davis (29) 208 2015 L
Aaron Judge (25) 208 2017 R
8. Chris Carter (29) 206 2016 R
9. Drew Stubbs (26) 205 2011 R
10. Mark Reynolds (24) 204 2008 R
11. Kris Bryant (23) 199 2015 R
Chris Davis (27) 199 2013 L
Adam Dunn (30) 199 2010 L
Ryan Howard (27) 199 2007 L
Ryan Howard (28) 199 2008 L
16. Jack Cust (29) 197 2008 L
17. Joey Gallo (23) 196 2017 L
Mark Reynolds (27) 196 2011 R
19. Chris Davis (31) 195 2017 L
Khris Davis (29) 195 2017 R
Adam Dunn (24) 195 2004 L
Curtis Granderson (31) 195 2012 L
23. Adam Dunn (26) 194 2006 L
Mike Napoli (34) 194 2016 R
25. Trevor Story (24) 191 2017 R
26. Ryan Howard (34) 190 2014 L
27. Bobby Bonds (24) 189 1970 R
Adam Dunn (33) 189 2013 L
Danny Espinosa (25) 189 2012 B
30. Jose Hernandez (32) 188 2002 R
31. Bobby Bonds (23) 187 1969 R

steve carlton's best K/9 in any season was 8.7 (it was 7.1 for his career)

so far this season the average, among 93 qualifying pitchers, is 8.6

read in a recent post that fangraphs will soon debut a K+ stat

One thing I think about modern baseball is just how big the whole league is anymore. Dudes like the Big Unit, Dave Kingman or Richie Sexton were odd balls of their day being so tall and now every team has a bunch of guys 6-5 and taller.

many of them pitchers.

https://imgur.com/a/NFXUl6u

https://imgur.com/a/NFXUl6u

I'm mad that Sixto Sanchez isn't 6'2"

Not sure if there would be an article out there on that but I’m interested in analysis about players who lose their ability or perhaps willingness to draw a walk as they age. Specifically thinking about someone like Albert Pujols, and whether or not it has mostly to do with pitchers challenging him more as his skills erode, thereby not pitching around him anymore + not IBBing him nearly as much (if ever!) I’m interested primarily bc of the many aging players who either retain those skills or sometimes even improve them over time (one example: Willie Mays drawing a career-best 112 walks in his age 40 season.)

My guess is there’s a lot related to bat speed and players having to cheat a bit more, which means they’re simply not going to be able to wait that extra split second anymore. But it’s interesting to me how some players completely lose a skill that seems to be one that would age well (and often and perhaps usually does!)

i think with pujols specifically it's that pitchers aren't afraid to challenge him anymore. same with the ghost of chris davis. i'm not so sure that they necessarily had a walk 'skill' so much as it was a by-product of their other skills

curtis granderson, on the other hand, has seen his walk rate go up even as his power fades. it is intersting

James once wrote about the Mays phenomenon--great hitters who lose their bat speed and become more selective to compensate.

I saw this stat and read the list and had a good chuckle on how many of these guys I knew as players from baseball cards or reading the Sporting News all the time as a kid.

Yonder Alonso: Similar Batters through 30

Sid Bream (966.4)
Doug Mientkiewicz (959.4)
David Segui (955.0)
Mike Ivie (946.9)
John Mabry (941.7)
Casey Kotchman (940.1)
Nick Etten (939.0)
Gerald Perry (938.2)
Babe Dahlgren (937.0)
Todd Benzinger (936.7)

https://www.tradingcarddb.com/Images/Cards/Baseball/80/80-445Fr.jpg

I’m not sure how, but a cleveland reliever got a save tonight in a 19-4 win

Think if you pitch three innings or more it doesn't matter what the score is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/24/sports/baseball/24rangers.html

Today around the #statcast lab we worked on naming/defining a bunch of new metrics around reaction, burst, & route-running, and I'm very excited for them to be ready. We also kicked around what's driving the xwOBA-wOBA gap we're seeing, because that definitely seems like a thing.

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) July 19, 2018

the xwOBA-wOBA gap
😕

it's league-wide, too, right?

this gap is going to be the end of us all

here is the draft schedule for the Boston Saberseminar

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VID-J4MUyRtzsXv3o9Ie7pH029VVb8GJ6jJfFNGBnOY/edit#gid=0

...so former players Fernando Perez and Nate Freiman will be presenting.

https://imgur.com/a/Z04LVtf
is this becoming a thing??

https://imgur.com/a/Z04LVtf

god, i hope it becomes a thing.

*sigh*
https://image.ibb.co/byvn8o/Screen_Shot_2018_07_24_at_9_22_55_PM.png

It was kinda bizarre listening to broadcasters extol the virtues of advanced stats for a half-inning; it was awesome, i don't know if it's a regular thing anyone does

BABIP is kind of a weird one to use

honestly if they could only pick 3, i'd take BB%, K%, and OPS. it's usually possible to get a decent idea of what kind of batter someone is by those measures alone

wRC+, OBP, ISO