SOLAR POWER

60 more days of misery, uncertainly, market disruption, and fear. This is the worst.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/11/13/the-clock-ticks-itc-turns-section-201-over-to-president-trump/

pv magazine staff has found no sources that can tell us more about this confidential report, and ITC staff has stated that a public version will be released at an unspecified later date. {...}

In other words, President Trump can do just about anything. There are precious few limitations, but these include that initial trade action can last four years (and be extended to up to eight years), and that tariffs are limited to 50% of the price of products “above the rate existing before the proclamation of action”.

This last detail may be more complex than it first appears. While all the commissioners who recommended import duties would have the tariff values calculated on the cost when solar products enter the nation, SolarWorld and Suniva have asked for duties equal to 50% of the prices during timeframes covering previous years when solar cells and modules were much more expensive.

Neither SolarWorld nor Suniva has done much to mitigate these proposals, which we at pv magazine feel are dangerous and unreasonable.

"uncertainty"

dumbfucks

both of those companies can burn in hell, forever

so selfish and stupid

yeah it's rather remarkable

Other solar groups have stepped up to support the cause using social and advertising campaigns. A coalition of manufacturers, U.S. Made Solar, has been running TV advertisements during shows that President Trump watches regularly, such as Fox & Friends.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solar-industry-makes-last-ditch-lobbying-against-solar-tariffs#gs.rMpfhZI

we'll know within two weeks, probably. good article.

30% tariff, could have been worse, hopefully Solar World and Suniva die now

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/breaking-trump-admin-issues-a-30-solar-tariff#gs.8mgzsVs

well looks like Solar World found a way out

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/sunpower-acquires-solarworld-americas#gs.E0HOHd0

Anyone here have experience getting solar at home? I've been intrigued for years, but the numbers seem completely unappetizing. When I put our address into the supposedly close to accurate free google solar calculator, for example (https://www.google.com/get/sunroof), it claims savings of $6000 over *20 years*. $300 a year for two decades seems a pretty paltry reward for putting five-figures into the system, even with (dwindling) tax write-offs and rebates. And yeah, floating somewhere in there is environmental impact, but on that front it seems much more efficient/easy to just find ways to use less power, or if you're feeling generous just donating that huge amount of upfront install cost to a food pantry or something, where every dollar given gets exponential returns.

I dunno. Am I looking at this all wrong?

(caveats: i don't own a home, and i haven't payed close attention to this stuff for a while)

i think you're generally looking at it in a reasonable way. a couple thoughts:

- solar panels are getting less expensive and are a lot cheaper than they used to be, but they still typically have long payback periods (the amount of time it takes to recoup the upfront cost) for individual homeowners.
- some utilities have amazing financing programs where they'll pay quite a bit of the upfront costs and gradually bill it to you on your utility statement every month. some don't.
- in general, solar is much more economical at scale. at some point if we don't have the dumbest person of all time as our president, maybe we'll upgrade our grid and energy policies so that individual homeowners with solar can even feed excess energy INTO the grid and make a little money. but instead we live in this world.
- you're spot on, i think, about looking for other ways to use less power and using that money for something else right now. you can get a free home energy audit (disclosure: i work in this field) from your utility that will identify energy saving measures, and in a lot of cases the utility will even install free equipment (smart thermostats, energy-saving aerators for faucets, etc). energy efficiency measures typically have a MUCH shorter payback period than solar panels on a roof.

oops, my link was broken. i meant to link to an image of concentrated solar power:

https://news.energysage.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/11.14.18_solar.jpg

curious to hear from people from other non-chicago places though! like i said, i haven't followed it closely in a while and it's possible that people in warm sunny progressive places are able to take advantage of residential solar in a more cost-efficient manner

final, contradictory, thought - if you're planning on staying in your house for 15 to 20 years (long enough to cover the payback period and start recouping costs) and have extra money, you should still consider it!
just know that in 5 years there will be better, cheaper solar and your neighbors will be putting it on their roofs and recouping their costs in 8 years instead of 15 (or whatever). the price of solar is likely to keep dropping, so the longer you wait, the better the deal. i'm sure there are people who put solar on their roofs 10 years ago that are insanely jealous of the current tech and prices.

final final thought: i don't think IL has a state tax credit for residential solar right now. if it were me and i had a home and some money, i'd wait until we get a state tax credit, in addition to the federal incentives.

Yeah, thanks for all that. We have a relatively new home, so everything is running pretty efficiently. Our total power bill last year was $1100, which ... doesn't seem that high. Now, if solar could take *$600* off the bill annually ... that would still be kinda low for the investment, since it's not even a sure thing we'll even be in this house for another 15-20 years; incredibly, we're (likely) empty nesters in about six!

I have three friends that have gotten or are about to get solar, and the stories/numbers/savings they cite just don't jibe with my (casual) research. I, too, would love to hear stories from places that are not Chicagoland, though.

detailed breakdowns for IL available here:

https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/illinois/

8-year payback period and 15.73% IRR on average

a lot of those saving are due to the 26% tax credit - do you have a tax burden? that's where the real savings are with this.

Thanks. It looks like the tax credit expires after 2021, and President Asshole could just order it ended tomorrow, couldn't he? Either way, in theory I'd get a 26% tax rebate for 2020, then 21% in 2021, then nothing after that. But if that website is more or less accurate, and the avg. savings is more or less what I pay in power annually, then yeah, 8 (or maybe 10) year payback seems possible. We have a consult with someone tomorrow, I'm curious what they say.

no the tax credit is 26% if you get it installed in 2020 - then, if the credit is more than your tax burden, you can spread the credit out over an up-to-five-year period. but it's a one-time credit, 26% of your total cost *including* installation.

the difference in payback times between states is based entirely on state or utility-based incentives, so if you have time dig in to the state incentives on that page.

According to that site it looks like IL offers no rebates or tax incentives.

ah yeah looks like the incentives ran out (that happens frequently)

this might help:

There is still hope for residents of Springfield and Chicago, which each have their own solar grant programs. Your installer (click here to see what you can save with solar power on your home) will give you all the details on those and any other grants and rebates you may qualify for.

for what it's worth I'm a big fan of the SMA inverters that have an optional outlet you can install that provides 15-amp 120V power during the day if there is a power outage

SMA is so bloody expensive though. Buy Chinese either Ginlong or Sungrow. I’ve visited both their factories and their quality systems are great. I commissioned a full quality audit on Ginlong a few years back and they rated really highly and I only ever had one quality issue in dealing with them over 1000s of installs. (a weird clipping issue at maximum output that got solved in subsequent models)

If you have a difficult roof or shading issues, get SolarEdge.

I agree with Ed, Sungrow is good as well and SolarEdge is the best choice for shaded roofs - SMA won't work well with shade

I just *really* like the Secure Power Supply feature on SMA

also, Ed I would love to hear the gory details about that clipping issue if you are so inclined

We've got an ideal house and roof for a lot of this, so we'll see what the guy says tomorrow.

Just got off the phone with a good friend of mine who deals with these issues on a regular basis, and he is dubious about solar. Very bullish on geothermal though, because it's a constant. There's nothing to generate, no changing costs or production. It just does this thing. Vs. solar, which is beholden to myriad other factors.

He also, as Karl noted above, stressed the importance of simple shit, like insulation, to making sure your home is as efficient as possible. Doesn't matter where your power or heat or cooling is coming from if you lose half of it through your walls and windows.

Quick question: if I'm about to talk to this guy about solar, what specific questions do you think I should I ask him? What answers would be most useful for someone on the fence?

estimated payback time

price difference for different inverter options as Ed noted (Sungrow, Solar Edge, SMA if you want to spend a bit more for a backup outlet)

I dunno, what are your on-the-fence concerns? Like for example, this:

There's nothing to generate, no changing costs or production. It just does this thing. Vs. solar, which is beholden to myriad other factors.

I really don't agree with - solar is maintenance free, by design. set it and forget it. And the production is very consistent within seasonal variation. I've talked to people still getting 70% output from their Motorola panels made in the 1970s.

The guy I talked to was great, helped a lot. Estimated payback time with more efficient and reliable (which is to say, more expensive) panels could be about 7 years, which is not bad. And cost would in theory be reduced by 40% or so once you take into account tax rebates and SRECs and whatnot, with a lot of that coming back to you more or less the first year. Though it's still a *considerable* initial cash expenditure. Obviously a lower outright price would be better than a higher price with a promise of refunds, but that's not where we're at.

I think my friend's thing with geothermal is that the energy being generated is constant. It's not linked to sun or shade or snow or cloud cover or whatever, it's just there, year-round. There is no degradation of panels or reduction of panel efficiency, there is no fear of needing (or wanting) to upgrade in the near future, and it covers the biggest drag on a lot of homes, heating and cooling. Of course, it costs a lot more to install! But for example, solar, the Panasonic panels the guy prefers (with iirc solar edge inverter) have a 25 year warranty, which is great ... except who knows how things will look in 25 years, in terms of technology and options and the like. A similar consideration is that when it comes time for a new roof, the panels have to be removed and replaced, too, which could add thousands to the cost. And so on.

There is no degradation of panels or reduction of panel efficiency

this is not a thing that happens, panels have a 25-year output warranty for a reason, and work for even longer as noted above

no fear of needing (or wanting) to upgrade in the near future

also not an issue - don't replace existing panels to upgrade, just add more on a newer inverter.

the biggest drag on a lot of homes, heating and cooling

OK this I agree with.

fwiw my parents have had many painful and expensive difficulties with their geothermal system, they have had no issue with the solar at all.

sure there's an early-adopter price tag still. but as you have seen, the numbers are good in terms of IRR.

My mom has geothermal and loves it, but is not really a candidate for solar.

And panels absolutely do degrade, however slightly. So says the guy I just spoke with and everything I've seen. The cheaper the panel, the quicker (or more) they will start to degrade. The more expensive the panel (like the ones he was pitching), the better they work and the longer they work before any significantly reduced returns (plus better warranties). Granted, around 1% annual decline in productivity is not that big, but that still means 10% after 10 years, and so on, which is not nothing. If we were to, say, want to sell our house in ten years, solar may factor as a selling point, but esp. if we can say it offsets 100% of the house's consumption. It's still good to say 90%, or 85%, but it may not hit that magic psychological number, imo, to get the ideal ROI.

And adding to the system in the future obviously costs money, too. Just things to consider.

it's way less than 1% a year degradation, more like 1/4 of a %

there's a reason they guarantee >80% output for 25 years, 1% a year would be a lot more than that

and yeah you are correct that "100% coverage" is often not a good idea in terms of ROI

Just googling I saw something like an average of .5% annual degradation, and that's linked, like output and efficiency, to quality, which is to say, cost. But yeah, that's a relatively minor concern. Degradation, not cost, that is. A higher priced system here would go for around $22K. A lower cost system would go for around $18k. Both are huge numbers, and if you finance, obviously that number goes up.

fwiw that amount sounds just about right for installed cost on 5-6 KW

I just got his formal pitch, if you're curious, but it includes:

Panel degradation rate: 3% in year 1; 0.26% years 2-25 - 90% efficient @ yr 25

ah that's really interesting! thanks. I did not know that more degradation was assumed in year 1.

After saying my roof isn't great for solar I'm now starting to thing I should jump on this. The Roof is bad because it is flat and mainly taken up by my roof deck, but havingng Saturday up their a lot the shading on the exposed parts isn't actually as bad as I thought and now you can get a 400W standard size panel(SunPower), I could actually get some useful production out of it. There's an outside chance I could squeeze 6 on the eastern end of the roof and 2 on the western end, really its probably 4 and 2 but that could still be 2.4kW. Panels would probably have to be flat rather than on tilt frames or the homeowners association would flip and the shading means I'd have to have micro inverters (Enphase) or optimisers (SolarEdge) to get the best out of a system.

I've had the Enphase option priced out and it comes in at AU$3.74/W which makes me wince, especially as we won't qualify for the current VIC government rebate which would bring that down. I've got a mate going through the same process and his (much bigger) system is quoted out at $1.22/W or AU$1.08/W if he gets the rebate. Thats on a SolarEdge System with optimisers and and Longi 350W Mono PERC panels.

Not that it's really about payback but It would take me about 10 years to breakeven on that

26% solar tax credit extended for 2 years as part of the COVID bill, definitely a good thing

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/12/solar-investment-tax-credit-extended-at-26-for-two-additional-years/

even better news

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/07/28/solar-investment-tax-credit-to-be-extended-10-years-at-30/

Dunno if I mentioned it, but we did end up getting solar and have been very happy with it so far.

what inverter type, do you know?

also, Josh, note this key provision:

"The tax credit applies to residential adopters of solar technology. If the bill is passed, the 30% credit will be retroactively applied to anyone who installed their system since the beginning of 2022."

We had it done in 2020, so already got whatever rebates and whatnot we were expecting.

As for inverter type, I believe we have a Solar Edge Single Phase Inverter with HD-Wave.