I Never MENA Hurt You; I Never MENA Make You Cry 2017 (Middle East, North Africa, and Other Geopolitical Hotspots)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-troops-niger/story?id=50559788

When did US forces arrive in Niger?

They arrived in early 2013 to help the French military that had intervened in neighboring Mali the year before. The French had moved into Mali after an Al Qaeda affiliated group and tribal groups took over the vast northern part of the country and were moving toward the capital of Mali. As part of the U.S. effort to assist that mission then-President Barack Obama ordered 150 U.S. military personnel to set up a surveillance drone operation over Mali that would fly from Niger's capital of Niamey.

How many U.S. troops are there in Niger?

About 800, but the vast majority of them are construction crews working to build up a second drone base in Niger’s northern desert. The rest run a surveillance drone mission from Niger’s capital of Niamey that helps out the French in Mali and other regional countries in the fight against Al Qaeda, Boko Haram and now ISIS. A smaller component, less than a hundred, are Army Green Beret units advising and assisting Niger’s military to build up their fighting capability to counter Al Qaeda and ISIS. There are an additional 300 U.S. military personnel in neighboring Burkina Faso and Cameroon doing the same thing. They are there as part of what’s known as the mission in the Lake Chad Basin.

So wait, what's happening in Saudi Arabia right now?

Saw something about a missile from Yemen, then this?

Wow lot of big news out of Saudi tonight. Reports of big names being taken into custody (Waleed bin Talal, Khaled Tuwaijri, Waleed Ibrahim).

— Tobias Schneider (@tobiaschneider) November 4, 2017

Reuters: Saudi Arabia detains princes, ex-ministers in anti-corruption drive

Saudi Arabia has detained 10 princes and dozens of former ministers through its newly formed anti-corruption committee, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV reported, citing unnamed sources.

The new committee, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was formed by royal decree hours earlier on Saturday.

Then again, anti-corruption drives in autocratic regimes are not always anti-corruption drives.

on top of that,

Yemeni rebels on Saturday targeted an airport in Saudi Arabia's capital with a ballistic missile, according to Yemen's Houthi-controlled Defense Ministry.

But the missile was intercepted over northeast Riyadh, the Saudi Ministry of Defense said in a statement carried on government-backed Al-Arabiya television.

Yemen's Defense Ministry said the missile attack "shook the Saudi capital" and the operation was successful. The attack was conducted using a Yemeni-made, long-range missile called the Burqan 2H, it said.

The Riyadh airport tweeted that it hadn't been affected.

"Travelers across King Khalid international airport in Riyadh, we assure you that the movement is going on as normal and usual, and trips going according to time," the airport said on Twitter.

Airstrikes later in the day targeted Yemen's capital Sanaa, shaking homes and breaking windows. This is the first night attack on Sanaa in weeks, according to CNN's Hakim al-Masmari from Sanaa.

Saudi Arabia has been leading a coalition of states against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who toppled Yemen's internationally recognized government in 2015.

The missile launch on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh was the first time the heart of the Saudi capital has been attacked and represents a major escalation of the ongoing war in the region.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/04/middleeast/saudi-arabia-ballistic-missile/index.html

...and now?

A plane transporting eight Saudi officials including Prince Mansour Bin Muqrin, reportedly crashed near Abha #KSA

— Michael Horowitz (@michaelh992) November 5, 2017

Lots of rumours that Prince Abdulaziz bin Fahd, who was arrested a few weeks ago, is also dead - though not clear if it is the same incident.

KSA now saying Lebanon has declared war against them.

Note: Lebanon has not declared war against them.

Still no clarity on whether Abdulaziz bin Fahd is dead, btw. Some press reports indicate he may have been killed resisting arrest but nothing wholly credible.

I hardly know how to think about politics in an autocratic context... is consolidation of power for Mohammed bin Salman a good thing all things considered? It seems like he's advancing an agenda that we want for Saudi Arabia.

He is currently fighting a murderous war in Yemen, on the verge of declaring war with Lebanon, leading a largely arbitrary blockade of Qatar - in part because he doesn’t like one of their TV stations, is pushing anyone who is hesitant of doubling down in Syria out, etc. Obviously ymmv as to the agenda we want KSA to have but I am not sure the signs are exactly positive.

Mohammed bin Salman is a total idiot who is going to end up starting a huge war hey?

Okay, I was simply looking at some of the purported social reforms. I don't know this area very well.

Lebanon's PM suddenly resigning is quite mind blowing, too:

Lebanon's outgoing prime minister who unexpectedly resigned during a trip to Saudi Arabia met with Saudi King Salman on Monday as speculation continued to swirl over his surprising move.

You don't say. Him stepping back will give way for new elections. Which will put Hezbolah (Iran backed) in the spotlight again, much to KSA's dismay. But it could also be he got a head start, and gave in because he knows what's coming (both for his country - Lebanon is practically bankrupt - and him personally).

If you want 4D political chess, look no further.

Mohammed bin Salman is a total idiot

He consorts with noted geopolitical expert, Jared Kushner.

I recommend the Nov 5 Background Briefing with Ian Masters for expertise here.

MBS+Kushner+Trump could get the US into fighting on the losing side of the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict. An ostensibly isolationist political movement behind Trump would project us into a centuries old conflict.

Kushner's security detail isn't remotely large enough.

A blockade on basic supplies to war-ravaged Yemen is threatening millions of people and should be lifted immediately, the United Nations said on Tuesday.

The call follows a reported decision on Saturday by Saudi Arabia, which is leading the coalition fighting Houthi separatists in the country, to close air and sea ports in Yemen.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=58044#.WgIb_NIUlYU

this saad al-hariri story is crazy

i have no idea what to make of it

are the saudis going to attack lebanon? that seems impossible right?

Mohammed bin Salman is responsible for Saudi Arabia's foreign policy debacles over the past few years (v. Syria, Yemen, and Qatar). Seems following his tête-à-tête with Jared Kushner, he decided to double down on the arrogance.

Ian Master's interviews with David Hearst (editor, Middle East Eye) and Thanassis Cambanis (Beirut journalist) from Nov 5 shed some light.

Oops, I posted this already. Guess memory impairment is one of the side effects.

are the saudis going to attack lebanon? that seems impossible right?

― Mordy, Friday, November 10, 2017 3:24 PM (twenty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i don't think they'll attack, but ratchet-up tensions, put in place trade restrictions, give israel a nudge (and maybe some financial inducements) to deal with hezbollah while they're presumably weakened by their involvement in the syrian civil war?

Saudis probably want Israelis to fight Lebanon, but I don't think the Israelis want that now, as much as they despise Hezbollah

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-airport/saudi-led-coalition-air-raid-puts-yemens-sanaa-airport-out-of-service-agency-idUSKBN1DE27Y

Greenwald and others like him are blaming the US for this. Predicting more famine and death

I talked to a friend who lived Beirut a long time (and speaks Arabic but isn't Arab) and her view is that KSA is sidelining Hariri in order to make Lebanon *more* unambiguously a Hezbollah govt so they (the Saudis) can have a freer political hand to intervene there militarily; I don't really see how that makes sense but neither does any other theory I've heard

I've actually been hearing that theory a lot tbf

me2 thus my question above - it's hard to imagine SA really intends to conduct a military operation in Lebanon unless they plan on ramping up + turning the tide in Syria...

Which also doesn't make sense, given the recent [Russia-Saudi arms deal](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-king-salman-visit-saudi-arabia-moscow-vladimir-putin-a7985161.html).

But on other issue...Is anyone working to resolve Saudi vs Houthi in Yemen war, and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen for civilians?

certainly not the u.s., canada, or uk who are happy to sell the saudis weaponry/send them military advisors

the fact that we hear so much about the humanitarian crisis in syria and even say the rohingya but the yemeni catastrophe is barely covered by western media makes me feel kinda greenwald lol

Yemen has the special position of being both dirt fucking poor and Muslim, so nobody in the US gives a shit

There are a bunch of wars going on that receives less attention than Yemen, though. South Sudan, for instance. And the opportunity to put blame on the US is one of the main reasons that people like Greenwald care, which is sorta racist in it's own way.

oh ffs.. yemen is arguably the biggest humanitarian disaster that's happening right now with the potential for millions of deaths from starvation. greenwald's american. it is actually his government's fault to a large extent. why should he not care? i'm a british person who lives in canada, i'm disgusted at the governments of both countries as i think it's natural to be. yet our press could not be more obsequious regarding the arms/military assistance to saudi arabia.

Sure, but compared to the other three countries in this article, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria, Yemen isn't underreported: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/11/world-faces-worst-humanitarian-crisis-since-1945-says-un-official

And some of the coverage is frankly abhorrent, as when some old email was dug up to blame the whole war on Hillary Clinton. That is not about moral disgust, that's about using dead yemeni to score political points.

the fact that our governments are directly responsible for the yemen crisis and could end it if they wanted would be the key point to me. but I'm just trying to score political points.

That is not a fact. Unless you live in Saudi Arabia?

the US is providing arms + intelligence it's kinda silly to quibble over whether that equals "directly" or not. would SA prosecute this war w/out US help? i'd think so (surely they are more committed to fighting Iran through proxy conflicts than the US is). but they wouldn't be able to do as much damage.

The US and the West clearly has blood on our hands in Yemen, but so do we in South Sudan, Somalia, Syria, etc. The idea that somehow the US could stop the humanitarian crisis in Yemen if we wanted to is, well, not a fact. If anything, the lack of a regional power behaving like a lunatic might mean the West could do a hell of a lot more good wrt humanitarian help in Somalia or Nigeria.

u.s. provides logistical and intelligence support to saudis in yemen. u.s., along with canada, uk, france etc. provided the majority of planes, bombs (including cluster bombs) and missiles that have been used to enforce blockade of yemen and destroy civilians (packed public places such as markets have been deliberately targeted) and civilian infrastructure. the u.s. weapons deal is to saudi arabia in the time leading up to the war is the largest weapons deal in u.s. history.

leading up to and during i should have said

Part of the reason the weapons deal is so large is because Saudi Arabia is a really really rich country that isn't on any sort of sanctions list. They can get enough weapons they want for a number of genocides. Which is not to say that the West is without guilt in this case, our relationship with Saudi Arabia has been cynical and disgusting for decades. But we're not 'directly responsible' for the war in Yemen, and we could not just end it if we wanted to. Saudi Arabia is a big regional power, a rich and powerful country, and they can pretty much do what they want to. The responsibility for the Yemen disaster lies with them, and especially with crown prince Mohammad bin Salman.

What Saudi Arabia and its allies are doing in Yemen is abhorent, but Yemen has topped my list of Malthusian basket cases for a some time. Population has more than doubled since 1990, according to the FAO it imported 95% of it cereal in 2011-13, and the cost for this equaled a third of its exports. A few years ago Guardian reported Yemen had nearly drained the aquifer under Sana'a, with 45% having gone to grow the narcotic qat.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.823163

this doesn't augur particularly well for the people of lebanon

i disagree

Eisenkot said Israel has no intention of initiating an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. "We see Iranian attempts at bringing about an escalation, but I don't see a high chance for this at the moment."

i don't think israel has any motivation to start a conflagration in lebanon. the only possible motivation would be attempting to deny hezbollah strategic assets (primarily coming from iran) but bombing those transports in syria have proven sufficient (and garnered russian support). another asymmetrical counter insurgency quagmire would go against bibi's conservative status quoism and would produce no obvious benefits. this is a good read: https://ottomansandzionists.com/2017/11/16/are-israel-and-saudi-arabia-on-the-same-page/

directly responsible for the yemen crisis and could end it if they wanted

I agree with the idea that the US and other western allies of KSA share a direct responsibility for some of the events in Yemen. I disagree with the idea that KSA's western allies could end it 'if they wanted'.

It's tempting to believe that the world dances to the tune the west decides to play, but KSA is a very wealthy country with its own regional and international interests and nothing short of full-scale military intervention by the west could force KSA to stop a war it views as necessary to its interests. I think we've had ample demonstrations since the Vietnam War that just because a western power "wants" a particular outcome to some conflict, is no guarantee that it gets what it wants.

i disagree

Eisenkot said Israel has no intention of initiating an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. "We see Iranian attempts at bringing about an escalation, but I don't see a high chance for this at the moment."

i don't think israel has any motivation to start a conflagration in lebanon. the only possible motivation would be attempting to deny hezbollah strategic assets (primarily coming from iran) but bombing those transports in syria have proven sufficient (and garnered russian support). another asymmetrical counter insurgency quagmire would go against bibi's conservative status quoism and would produce no obvious benefits. this is a good read: https://ottomansandzionists.com/2017/11/16/are-israel-and-saudi-arabia-on-the-same-page/

― Mordy, Thursday, November 16, 2017 9:25 AM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i just meant israel further aligning itself with the increasingly reckless saudis -using their nonsense "shia crescent" slogan and all - and donald trump and the fact that hezbollah/lebanon seems like the most likely target if any of this rhetorical sabre-rattling is to turn into military action. admittedly (and this is a pretty huge admittedly) israel would need some sort of provocation from hezbollah to launch such an attack, if history is any indicator, and even with the war in syria winding down and assad's place looking assured i don't think hezbollah are going to be up to any shenanigans with israel any time soon.

That "Shia cresent" talk may be shaping U.S. military action. I've seen several leaked combat footage clips of U.S. SOF working with opposition Syrian militia along Syria route 2, the shortest route between Damascus and Baghdad. Reflected in the green blob extending from the Iraqi border at this war situation site, recently. It's not particularly relevant ground for the war against ISIS.