not ted williams?
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 26 September 2017 12:06 (six years ago) link
huh, forgot he only hit 40 homers in a season once
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 26 September 2017 12:07 (six years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/aaron-judge-was-amazing-aaron-judge-was-a-bum-now-hes-amazing-again/
On that list of greatest rookie seasons, I've never even heard of Benny Kauff (#5).
― clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 21:29 (six years ago) link
Corey: Now that we seen the best and worst of Judge in a 13 month span (twice), any expectations for what his baseline will be?12:30 Dave Cameron: Stanton with more walks.12:30 Dave Cameron: A top-3 MLB hitter, basically.12:30 Troutmaggedon: If you were building a team would you rather have Bellinger or Judge going forward?12:31 Dave Cameron: Judge
― k3vin k., Thursday, 28 September 2017 12:17 (six years ago) link
Co-sign. Of all the athletes I’ve ever interviewed or featured, Judge is in the top echelon as far as being a quality human being https://t.co/HmyLhLF53F— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) October 19, 2017
when writers badmouth players i always take it with a grain of salt -- could be nothing more than 'he wasn't talkative/didn't give me the quotes i needed to make my story good' -- but when they're praising you as a person you might be doing something right
― mookieproof, Thursday, 19 October 2017 13:56 (six years ago) link
Michael Baumann on today's Ringer podcast (in the middle of a beautiful 10-minute anti-"plucky"-Yankees rant): Judge is "as bland and boring as Derek Jeter."
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 October 2017 00:24 (six years ago) link
cartilage cleanup!
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/aaron-judge-shoulder-surgery-monday-yankees-announce-article-1.3648991
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 22 November 2017 13:05 (six years ago) link
Judge winning out in the unofficial competition against Bellinger once again.
― omar little, Sunday, 13 May 2018 04:48 (five years ago) link
His BABIP is again freakishly high at .363 (.357 last year). He's .353 for his career now, which would put him tied for 7th on this (five-year-old) career list if he had enough AB, with four of the guys ahead of him only there because of their historic batting averages:
http://waswatching.com/2013/06/24/highest-career-babip-min-3000-pa/
Can he keep this up? I don't know--I expected him to come back to earth this year, and thus far he hasn't.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 4 July 2018 16:06 (five years ago) link
it's not that high given his skillset...he hits the ball really hard, runs well, and doesn't pop it up a lot. he's going to run high BABIPs
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 4 July 2018 16:26 (five years ago) link
Would much rather have Bellinger.
― clemenza,
i appreciate bold claims like this, i really do! and after last year, it was at least a plausible viewpoint, especially considering bellinger's relative youth.
but i must ask you now - would you still rather have cody bellinger?
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 17:44 (five years ago) link
Is Judge even going to come back this season?
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:00 (five years ago) link
maybe after Labor Day, sounds like
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:26 (five years ago) link
tbh i kinda forgot he was even injured, but i guess he's supposed to back in a couple of weeks. no surgery.
xpost
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:26 (five years ago) link
Karl--I honestly didn't view preferring Bellinger at that point to be very bold; it was completely in line with a lot of research (by James, whose credibility I realize is pretty shaky on this board) as to the future prospects of a 21-year-old vs. a 25-year-old. That's a four-year window; that's quite a jump. Add to that all of Judge's strikeouts and park factors, and it looked like an obvious pick to me. Bellinger also had a pretty historic season last year.
Right now, it obviously looks bad; it'd be an easy time to second-guess. I'm still willing to give it a couple years...that's the whole idea of the window, I think, that Bellinger is young enough that he may not yet be close to where he ends up.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 20:46 (five years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJuBgmWwAERpN0.jpg:small
― mookieproof, Saturday, 15 September 2018 19:51 (five years ago) link
Bellinger's having a okay year:
.261/.344/.471 (.267/.352/.581 last year)120 OPS+ (143)3.6 WAR (4.2)2B, BB, K the same (in 40 extra AB)
Basically the same season...with the one big difference very significant: 15 fewer home runs. If this is were he levels off, he's nothing special. But he's still only 22, so he's got time.
(Previous discussion will explain why I'm posting this here.)
― clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:31 (five years ago) link
"where he levels off"
― clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:32 (five years ago) link
And not helped by his park:
.245/.331/.484 at home for his career, .281/.364/.562 on the road.
― clemenza, Monday, 17 September 2018 12:34 (five years ago) link
Aaron Judge returns to the #Yankees lineup: pic.twitter.com/IDENp1GwYs— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 18, 2018
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Tuesday, 18 September 2018 20:07 (five years ago) link
I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.
― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 2:24 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
¯\(°_o)/¯
― omar little, Wednesday, 29 May 2019 00:16 (four years ago) link
Bellinger and Judge are pretty close now for their careers--Judge still has a slight edge (which might surprise, but his advantage after two seasons was huge):
B: .278/.368/.562, 108 HR, 145 OPS+, 16.7 WARJ: .273/.394/.552, 103 HR, 150 OPS+, 17.4 WAR
I doubt Bellinger will continue at anywhere near the level of this year (which is mostly attributable to his phenomenal start), but the four years he has on Judge may really start to show up in the next few seasons.
― clemenza, Saturday, 7 September 2019 15:30 (four years ago) link
bellinger's second half (.940 OPS) is still better than judge's season (.886), and that's despite bellinger's second-half BABIP dropping to an unreasonable .252
idk how sustainable this is on bellinger's part, but his K rate this season is 16.4% while judge's is 31%, and he's still generating more power. that's remarkable
― mookieproof, Saturday, 7 September 2019 18:19 (four years ago) link
Was at Dodger stadium a few days ago, sitting in the clouds, and it was remarkable to see where Bellinger stands in the box, as far back as possible which is normal but as close to the plate as he could get. With his standing stance he only occupied about maybe 1/8 of the box in total
― calstars, Saturday, 7 September 2019 21:45 (four years ago) link
One thing that has fluctuated with Bellinger (someone pointed this out on a game I was listening to) are his platoon splits. First year, even; second year, left-handers killed him; 2019, he's hitting right-handers a little better, but not a big difference. It would seem that the middle year was the anomaly.
― clemenza, Sunday, 8 September 2019 00:23 (four years ago) link
Two seasons shortened by injury plus two COVID seasons, this one not nearly finished, but has Judge ever been consistent since his big rookie season:
2018: .278/.392/.5282019: .272/.381/.540 2020: .257/.336/.5542021: .272/.385/.568
― clemenza, Saturday, 1 May 2021 18:37 (two years ago) link
Being healthy is a skill
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Saturday, 1 May 2021 23:16 (two years ago) link
I was working hard to keep all my told-you-so's in check during Bellinger's MVP year, but I'm starting to have doubts again as to whose long-term prospects are better.
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:13 (two years ago) link
Big judge
― calstars, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:27 (two years ago) link
Slash line killah
― calstars, Sunday, 2 May 2021 00:28 (two years ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/S9nWvhH.png
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 19:09 (two years ago) link
what am i looking at here
should i be 'reading between the lines' Zach?
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:13 (two years ago) link
nothing shocking, just a chart showing wOBA for bellinger (blue line) and judge (black line). the green line is the MLB average. bellinger's really fallen off this year, and wasn't great last year!
why these two? i have no idea why i still think about this, but bellinger and judge are always connected in my mind due to a bold prediction clemenza made a few years ago but how who would be better. i cannot think about either one without immediately thinking about the other now, lol
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:16 (two years ago) link
did clemenza say bellinger was going to be better?
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:22 (two years ago) link
this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.
― nomar, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:52 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
― clemenza, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:59 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10
― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
what's the case for bellinger over judge?
― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:08 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.
― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:15 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.
― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:16 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.
― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:17 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good
but judge seems like an absolute monster
― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:18 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
It seems fairly self-evident to me.
Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.
Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?
Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).
― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:19 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.
― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.
I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...
― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:21 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.
― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:23 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.
I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.
― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:27 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.
― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge
― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:31 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink
(that year was not any indication, though)
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:29 (two years ago) link
still feel good about this
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 11 August 2021 21:43 (two years ago) link
yeah, that was a pretty solid take!
― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 22:35 (two years ago) link
This is sort of the Bellinger thread too.
twitter.com/billjamesonline/status/1440799366243971078
Is there any historical precedent for a young player as great as Cody Bellinger was in 2017 and 2019 collapsing in the way that he has? (Not including pitchers; pitchers are different animals.) But I don't think I have ever seen this happen before. If there is precedent, who?
― clemenza, Sunday, 26 September 2021 15:39 (two years ago) link
Ready to wave the white flag here. The Bellinger call looked like genius in 2019, but he's terrible for the third year running now, while Judge, if he can stay healthy through his 30s, might have an outside shot at the HOF. Bellinger's four-year head start is becoming increasingly meaningless.
― clemenza, Friday, 20 May 2022 00:33 (one year ago) link
judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didnt sniff the HOF
― ciderpress, Friday, 20 May 2022 00:45 (one year ago) link
like, is nelson cruz gonna be a hall of famer? that seems like the best case
― ciderpress, Friday, 20 May 2022 00:50 (one year ago) link
Agree that he probably wouldn't go in for bulk career numbers; was thinking more of a concentrated peak period. But, again, if he can stay healthy for seven or eight seasons, maybe he'd get to 450 HR by the time he's 37, which'd give him a shot at 500 (if that still means anything by then). But a couple of MVPs and a couple of WS would probably be a more viable path, and he's got a pretty good jump on both this season.
― clemenza, Friday, 20 May 2022 02:16 (one year ago) link
(I meant to say sustained peak period.)
now that we've achieved closure on bellinger vs judge, you know bellinger is going to suddenly catch fire
― Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Friday, 20 May 2022 02:17 (one year ago) link
i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM
still feel good about this― k3vin k., Wednesday, August 11, 2021 5:43 PM
yeah, that was a pretty solid take!― Read between the lines Zach (Karl Malone), Wednesday, August 11, 2021 6:35 PM
Everyone missed the obvious answer:
I'll take Bellinger for 2019, and Judge for every other year ever till the end of eternity.
― clemenza, Friday, 20 May 2022 02:37 (one year ago) link
we'll always have 2019 bellinger
― Bruce Stingbean (Karl Malone), Friday, 20 May 2022 03:01 (one year ago) link
judge started so late, think his career numbers are gonna end up lower than a lot of other sluggers that didn't sniff the HOF
Hit his 20th tonight in the Yankees 52nd game; a 60-HR season would make up for some of that lost time.
― clemenza, Saturday, 4 June 2022 00:52 (one year ago) link
Looking at some projections he’s expected to land somewhere between 49-52 home runs. But I guess projection models are always on the cautious side, so it would take a lot of assume 60 home runs. Either way, I don’t see him being able to keep this up another 7 seasons, or whatever it would take to get his counting stats up to HOF muster.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 4 June 2022 16:35 (one year ago) link
Definitely not assuming...I'm using basic ratios here: 20/52 = 62/162. I guess the assumption in those models is regression-to-mean, or guys slow down, or something. And again, I don't think Judge will ever go in the HOF as a counting-stats guy (even if he manages to hit 500 HR); it'd have to be some combination of MVP prominence, team success, and something like a 60-HR season.
(Suddenly I'm Aaron Judge's biggest advocate--sorry, Cody, I've thrown you overboard.)
― clemenza, Saturday, 4 June 2022 17:09 (one year ago) link
They're not at all similar, but I'm thinking something like the Kirby Puckett HOF route: a couple of World Series wins, MVP support virtually every year, good slash stats, very popular (at least while he played), sustained decade of excellence. Puckett never had COVID or injuries to deal with, though, so that sustained period of excellence is going to have some blips with Judge.
― clemenza, Saturday, 4 June 2022 17:18 (one year ago) link