brexit negging when yr mandate is is trash: or further chronicles of a garbage-fire

like arguing with a scientologist

NV talks of a feeling that a fashion for Corbyn might have been reached. It's speculative, and all I was doing was pointing him to that piece which might give him more to think about on that point. It's also speculative, offers no stats or science.

It's pretty much impossible to read anything good about Corbyn let alone write it.

The question isn't whether or not Corbyn has hit peak popularity but whether the Tories have hit peak unpopularity (almost certainly not). People will vote for a government they dislike as long as it's seen as competent, and that's unlikely to the case for much longer.

A lot will depend on residual fear of a Corbyn government (likely to be significant) both from some swing voters but also from Tory MPs themselves. The press are never going to support him but it might affect the severity of the kicking they would otherwise give to the Tories.

The biggest threat now is that a Tory regicide puts someone more popular than May in power. Whether such a person exists I don't know.

however glorious this year's election defeat may have been, it's bought the Tories time. and I can't believe that May will lead them into the next election. the forces that galvanized Labour and forced the media to cover what Corbyn had to say feel like they're dissipating already. and we know he isn't strong as a soundbite parliamentary performer - which is great, but doesn't help my feeling that the party is sliding back into the doldrums. we'll see. I guess politics doesn't happen in the summer.

i can't believe the election was only in june, it feels like a hundred fucking years ago

Corbs could liven things up with a show trial and public execution of Blair, that'd be good.

Lol I can't believe I wrote my last post. Can someone fucking kill me already?

Please tell me if I addressed LGs critique or merely talked about it before putting me down. Thanks.

May really did drop off the radar altogether post-Grenfell. I've never known a PM disappear for so long.

She's extremely good at not showing up

I'm hoping this is just the feeling of accelerated time means that when something isn't happening right this second it must be declining. Difficult to tell (I hadnt thought of Labour sliding back till you mentioned it but who knows). As for May...I feel like if she survives next year might then last the duration but I'm not hugely able to read the lay of the land

Or is Davis acting leader now

all political punditry feels like speculation now, it'd be thrilling to live in such unpredictable times if it wasn't just as likely to be 1849 as 1848

what do the latest opinion polls say?

Labour ahead by about 2/3 points.

hmm, an arsenal with their noses just in front in january scenario then

corbyn knows

Major's government did survive a long time.

They clung on to a slowly vanishing overall majority for more than four years, though. May's starting point is worse than Major's 1996 position, never mind 1992. I don't see how they could possibly get through five years without a general election.

Night and day from what it was, Nick.

we can't have a general election until we've finished blowing raspberries and flicking Vs at the European Parliament

The Tories are mostly benefitting right now from the electorate's exhaustion (probably the media's too - rw papers criticism of May seems v reluctant and vague and they still go a hundred times harder on Labour fwiw at this point). 'Yeah but Labour would be worse' is bottomless reasoning but what do their voters have beyond that at this point?

The Tories will win the next election, don't kid yourselves.

the next election will be fought in the Thunderdome

master blaster 4 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/europe/brexit-eu-negotiations.html

cold

As a late Friday present, this is delicious:

https://www.conservativehome.com/majority_conservatism/2017/09/our-cchq-election-audit-the-rusty-machine-part-two-how-and-why-the-ground-campaign-failed.html

They were on to a hiding, but their arrogance made the hiding even worse - the point where polling spurred them on to pull resources from Labour marginal seats for supposed gains further up and further in is amazing.

Also a suspicion that the best journalism about the shambles of the selection process was happening on www.conservativehome.com

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/10/tony-blair-get-tough-on-immigration-to-stop-brexit

Let's do a load of things that would be illegal if we stayed in the EU in order to stay in the EU.

i wonder why Blair and his acolytes think that xenophobic policies are the key to the centre ground. it's almost as if they're expressing something about their own instincts rather than triangulating.

Ridiculous piece.

Is it the free hall pass you get having once been PM, that all your articles and mumbo jumbo will be published? Will there *ever* come a point when an editor at the Graun will just say: "Sorry Tony mate, we're trying to move on from the damage you've done, we're not interested in your op-ed's anymore, and chiefly, our readers have rended you irrelevant."

(or Sunday Times in this case. Or whoever the fuck)

hoping TBlair is rended to a state of irrelevance very soon

Almost unbelievable how awful Blair is as elder statesman. He could definitely shit out some centrist bromides and be welcomed in the press, instead he just seems to be dedicated to advancing his very esoteric personal view on politics.

"le centre, c'est moi"

Chicken lasagne, anyone? With a side of boiled potatoes?

*boaks*

Just saw that on Guardian - pulls punch on whether they really were boiled though.

Crosby told the senior advisers, who had gathered to discuss the party’s strategy over a meal of chicken lasagne and potatoes: “By the way, mate, it’s not about being the change candidate, it’s about doing what people want.”

Hope he calls her 'Theresa Mate'.

The authors also reveal that May rarely visited party workers, fearing that Conservative HQ was “a pit of germs”. “There were quite a lot of germs flying around,” one Conservative source said.

is this to be taken literally?

maybe it's code for herpes?

A Germophobe eh? That'll be worth a Con bounce in Hartlepool for sure.

Tony Blair wanted British football league

irrelevant, trivial, but it really speaks to the man's character imo

that character being "clueless, controlling idiot" obv

Mr Blair said he believed merging the Scottish and English leagues would strengthen the bonds between the two nations after devolution.

But he said a British national football team would have been a "step too far".

let's bring the nations together by having a joint league! but then keep the nations apart by not having a uk national squad!

nothing brings communities together like club football, the man knows his stuff

can we not somehow persuade ISIS that he's their number 1 enemy or something?

cool britannia is a helluva drug

I would like a comprehensive list of the pro/con analyses that have been done regarding the UK national football squad

*remove bookmark from thread*

pro: Northern Ireland got some handy resources these days
con: Arlene Foster insists on playing sweeper herself (wearing #27)
pro: John Terry cries to death

(FAO David Squires)

I think a cold wet Tuesday night in Alloa beats a cold wet Tuesday night in Stoke hands down.

Home nations vs Away nations

I think a key element of any analysis should be "this has fuck all to do with the government"