The Counting Stat Formerly Known as a Big Deal: Best Bet for 500 HR

can't believe justin upton is still only 29, and that he has 237 HR. he's averaged 28 per season over the past few years, looks like this season will maintain that trend.

murray really was steady as hell, in his first 14 seasons he never dipped below 3 WAR and only had 4 below 4, including strike-shortened 1981 (3.6, 19th in majors).

jay bruce is always gonna look like a disappointment to me after he was so hyped as a prospect. possibly bc he and colby rasmus were both on the trading block when baltimore had bedard to get rid of.

colby's probably been a bit more disappointing though

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lol who voted for chase utley

Jay Bruce could go either way. He might not have peaked yet and seems to be in pretty good shape. I could definitely believe he could could end up moving to first base and being mobile enough to be decent at the position, which could extend his career. Bruce could also fall off a cliff at age 31 too. That said, if he can just do his career average for another 4-6 years, I think 400 HRs is fairly probable. For 500, he would have to be just as good till he is in his late 30s, stay healthy and not fall off. It's been done, but it is quite a bit to ask.

Willie Stargell was one guy I thought about and looked up that had his peak in his early 30s and then he was fairly productive into his late 30s. That might be a model, although Pops ended up at 475 HRs.

Still up and down on EE's chance's for 500. He's having a good power year--may hit 35-40 HR, which would give him ~415 heading into his age-37 season. He'd still need three more solid seasons, or hang around long enough as a part-time player. I don't know--maybe a 10 or 15% shot at the moment?