The Counting Stat Formerly Known as a Big Deal: Best Bet for 500 HR

Edwin was only at 195 after his age-30 season, which would put him second-last on that list ahead of Palmeiro.

judge will need to average about 48 per year to get to 300 by the end of his age 30 season

don't think judge will make it bc i want him to be the next ryan howard

Prominent exceptions to the age-30 benchmark--sometimes the cliff is closer than you think.

Juan Gonzalez - 362 (the drugs ran out)
Adam Dunn - 354 (helps to hit over .220)

Changed my vote to Eric Thames.

I'm not even 100% on Cabrera, sometimes the cliff is closer than you think.

His contract pays him 30M+ per and runs through 2023 at the earliest. Like Pujols, he'll be playing forever no matter how bad he might get. The real question is whether he'll get to 600.

I took a flyer and voted for Jay Bruce (given the options available). He's consistently in the 25-35 HR/year range and is young enough to have a reasonable chance at 500. I'd put his chances at no more than 30%, but he "only" needs to average 25-30 HR/year until age 38.

I was surprised when I looked at Bruce's career box yesterday, how consistent he's been. Having said that, the only 500-HR guy who took a similar route was Eddie Murray. Everyone on the list had a career high of 40+ HR--usually much higher, and usually multiple 40+ seasons--except Murray, who amazingly never hit more than 33 in a season. But for 20 straight seasons, from the time he came up until quitting (ignoring a final partial season), he hit between 16-33 every year.

He was also, for a five-year window early in his career, considered one of the best players in the game, though, and, deserved or not, there was sort of a mystique attached to him for the rest of his career (pre-sabermetric days; even James always wrote positively about him). Bruce doesn't have any of that. He has one 5+ WAR season, one 4+, a career BA of .249, and a career OBP of .319. I just can't see him playing full-time for long enough to get even close.

All good points about Bruce -- there's definitely a case to be made for him as this generation's Rob Deer. My second choice is probably Chris Davis. Even though it's unlikely, if he somehow puts up another four 40-50 HR seasons, he'd be in the 400-450 range by age 36 and would probably be a lock to trickle over 500.

I"m sure Cabrera's gonna get to the high 500s, even over 600! but also baseball is weird, you never know. He's certainly in decline, unless this year is sort of an anomaly and he can right the ship next season and cruise past 500.

can't believe justin upton is still only 29, and that he has 237 HR. he's averaged 28 per season over the past few years, looks like this season will maintain that trend.

murray really was steady as hell, in his first 14 seasons he never dipped below 3 WAR and only had 4 below 4, including strike-shortened 1981 (3.6, 19th in majors).

jay bruce is always gonna look like a disappointment to me after he was so hyped as a prospect. possibly bc he and colby rasmus were both on the trading block when baltimore had bedard to get rid of.

colby's probably been a bit more disappointing though

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lol who voted for chase utley

Jay Bruce could go either way. He might not have peaked yet and seems to be in pretty good shape. I could definitely believe he could could end up moving to first base and being mobile enough to be decent at the position, which could extend his career. Bruce could also fall off a cliff at age 31 too. That said, if he can just do his career average for another 4-6 years, I think 400 HRs is fairly probable. For 500, he would have to be just as good till he is in his late 30s, stay healthy and not fall off. It's been done, but it is quite a bit to ask.

Willie Stargell was one guy I thought about and looked up that had his peak in his early 30s and then he was fairly productive into his late 30s. That might be a model, although Pops ended up at 475 HRs.

Still up and down on EE's chance's for 500. He's having a good power year--may hit 35-40 HR, which would give him ~415 heading into his age-37 season. He'd still need three more solid seasons, or hang around long enough as a part-time player. I don't know--maybe a 10 or 15% shot at the moment?