Mr. Biagini, Mr. Joe Biagini: The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays

Jeff Blair was funny on the radio this morning, calling the bluff of callers who want to blow up the team. He went through the Astros and Cubs W-L records from 2011-13. "A rebuild is not a 78-84 season."

The Fan had Atkins on this morning. He called Osuna one of the best closers in baseball, Donaldson one of the best players in baseball, and Stroman "one of the best-performing pitchers in baseball." I'm probably reading too much into that, but it struck me as a distinction that suggests management is a little skeptical about Stroman (I've expressed my own skepticism more than once here) and they wouldn't hesitate on the right trade.

"the most tradable asset in baseball!"
"best-performing" is indeed weird tho. maybe they feel Sanchez has more raw talent, but maybe Stroman seems to get more out of his stuff than old blistery is right now. i think it's born more out of not wanting to slight anyone else on the team than trying to talk up a trade piece.
i do think the Jays will wind up sellers, but I expect guys like Happ or Estrada (if anyone will have him) to be on their way out.

My take is that "best performing" means "clutch" in that comment.

I'm no fan of either Kevin Barker or Joe Siddall, but I agree with something Barker said this morning, talking about the difference between Morales and Edwin: "Morales doesn't scare anyone." I know, I know--intangibles. Their HR, RBI, BA, and SLG are virtually identical this year. But Barker explained it in more tangible terms: that teams don't have to manipulate their bullpen with an Edwin AB looming. And another tangible manifestation: Edwin's 55-24 BB advantage, which translates to 60 points of OBP. Most of that is just better plate discipline throughout Edwin's career, but I'm sure the fear factor figures in a little.

Overheard from Progressive field beer guy: "Man it's hot. And those Canadians love to drink. It's gonna be a good night." #Bluejays

— Rob Longley (@longleysunsport) July 21, 2017

Fredo: "How do you say 'This team is fucked' in Spanish?"
Michael (smiling): "'This team is fucked.'"

Running four games ahead of their Pythagorean--they've finally figured out how to win the close ones.

it doesn't feel that way.

Let me rephrase.

Running four games ahead of their Pythagorean--they've finally figured out how to lose the blowouts.

ah yes. on that i can agree, they've definitely mastered the blowout loss.

uh oh

AZL Reds placed RHP Darren Shred on the 60-day disabled list.

Thanks for the update. I don't know how much patience they're going to have with a 300-some pick who's injury-prone.

Now that's a finish.

yes. i think i woke up my neighbour's kid.

Missed this! Two walk-off grand slams in a week by the same guy--that has to be a first.

that's 4 come from behind wins since wednesday?!

they don't give the other guys' dates at ESPN.com

Pearce became just third player to hit two game-ending grand slams in the same season, joining Cy Williams (Phillies, 1926) and Jim Presley (Seattle, 1986). Presley later served as Pearce's hitting coach with the Orioles.

(I mean month/dates of their respective years)

The really funny part of this is right at the end, where Henderson talks about the Carter home run:

http://www.mlb.com/video/rickey-goes-north/c-1672510183

The pitcher they got from the Indians yesterday looks sort of promising.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=pannon000tho

he does! none of the three young guys they got looks like slouches imho.

Bret:
I know you’ve taken the side that the Jays should look to rebuild for a little while now. Does it follow, to you, that the Jays should be shopping Josh Donaldson this offseason? If so, should they go further and discuss guys like Stroman & Osuna? On the flip-side, does it look like there’s enough there to try and take another run with Donaldson in 2018 with some effective offseason maneuvering?

Dave Cameron:
I get the desire to want to keep building, but I have a hard time seeing the 2018 Blue Jays as a good team. They have a lot of holes, not a lot of money to spend, and not a lot of chips to trade. And it’s not like Boston or New York should be expected to get worse next year.
I’d blow it up.

biagini optioned ;_;

New name for the second wild-card in a logjam year when your team is a mess: The Future of an Illusion.

Estrada's had four good starts in a row, making it a really hard decision whether they should try to unload him or not. This is where I'd definitely be looking at FIP if I were management, which says he's basically the same pitcher this year as the last two:

ERA (2015/16/17): 3.13/3.48/4.85
FIP (2015/16/17): 4.40/4.15/4.35

His K/BB ratio has held steady (more strikeouts, more walks); his HR/9 has crept up a bit; his H/9 are way up, suggesting he was either lucky the past two seasons or unlucky this year. Probably halfway between.

he's had the, or one of the, lowest BABIP in '15 and '16 because apparently he is somehow a kind of weak contact god (possibly because of his off-speed stuff). so i'd not be the least bit surprised if his ERA going up so much vs FIP is due to hitters just making better contact.

That would definitely have been my common-sense explanation 20 years ago--"Um, they're hitting the ball harder, maybe, and more batted balls are getting through for hits?"--but I've been duly taught to be suspicious of all common-sense explanations.

I think the Weak Contact Gods should have been a Greg Ginn spinoff project on SST circa 1987.

I posted a piece on Dave Stieb's 1985 season, which has always mystified me. Don't know if there are any other Jays fans old enough to remember how unusual it was.

How in the hell is this team only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot (behind six other teams though)??

Nice piece on Stieb ... I remember it well, and Stieb discussed it in detail in his autobiography.

xpost What's more, four of the six teams ahead of us are either tied or just one game ahead in the loss column!

I always wonder how much your chances actually decrease as you add teams between yours and the goal. How much of that is psychological? I guess the more teams, the better chance someone else will also get hot, but ultimately it's up to the Jays. If they can get it together and go 27-17 or close, that'd be enough no matter how many teams are in the mix, right? Is there a chance that a whole bunch of other teams are actually more likely to neutralize each other, clearing a path for the one team that gets hot? I don't know the answer to these questions.

The more teams involved, the less control each team has over their destiny so to speak. Winning doesn't necessarily get you ahead because it depends on what the other teams do, whereas losing to a team you're trying to beat definitely sets you back. No idea what this means psychologically. You can say that every game is like a playoff game when you're in a tight race with a bunch of other teams competing for the same spot, but maintaining the same level of focus over a period of weeks has got to be impossible.

That makes sense. I think 27-17 would do it, though--but the Jays are going to make such chimerical thinking moot anyway.

The 10th inning of yesterday's game was an all-time shitshow (Thermo were you there?). Giving up three runs on two hits (both singles) isn't easy, but they managed it somehow.

Three runs on two hits (singles) and no walks!!!

Don't know if I've ever seen a catcher have a more nightmarish half-inning. Besides the two wild pitches and the third one that was ruled a fielder's choice--where Lopez clearly forgot he needed to throw down to first--he also got dinged twice by pitches that were fouled off.

Plus a play at the plate for the winning run. (Not that Lopez did anything wrong there.) Richard Griffin's game story: "Lopez stayed on his knees with his head on the grass for several seconds after the winning run."

Sounds like I'm blaming Lopez for the loss...It was basically Osuna's nightmare, but every part of it directly involved the catcher. I'd have to look at the two (or three) wild pitches again; as I watched, they looked pretty difficult to block.

The winning hit was a horrible pitch (right down the middle) and a horrible throw from Bautista (a half-decent throw gets the runner by ten feet).

I was back home Sunday for the kiddo's birthday. Was there for the Friday & saturday games.

I find it weird with Lopez yesterday... each play on it's own you could forgive him or explain away what happened as (perhaps) something beyond his control. But he was at the center of a string of minor catastrophes that cost the team the game. Is he a colossal fuck up who lost the game, or simply a bad catcher who was over his head in a tough situation? I'm not sure.

And by the way - I had the time of my life in Wrigley those games.

They had a panel here name the 40 greatest Blue Jays in franchise history. I think it was panel--they had a fan vote, too, so it's a little confusing. The results were announced over the weekend:

1. Roberto Alomar, 2. Dave Stieb, 3. Roy Halladay, 4. Carlos Delgado, 5. Jose Bautista, 6. Tony Fernandez, 7. George Bell, 8. Joe Carter, 9. Jimmy Key, 10. Josh Donaldson.

11. Pat Hentgen, 12. Tom Henke, 13. Edwin Encarnacion, 14. John Olerud, 15. Devon White, 16. Jesse Barfield, 17. Paul Molitor, 18. Fred McGriff, 19. Roger Clemens, 20. Lloyd Moseby.

21. Duane Ward, 22. Vernon Wells, 23. Juan Guzman, 24. Kelly Gruber, 25. Jim Clancy, 26. Dave Winfield, 27. Shawn Green, 28. David Wells, 29. Jack Morris, 30. Pat Borders.

31. Ernie Whitt, 32. Willie Upshaw, 33. Damaso Garcia, 34. David Cone, 35. Shannon Stewart, 36. Dave Stewart, 37. Alfredo Griffin, 38. Russell Martin, 39. Rance Mulliniks, 40. Alex Rios.

They were trying to balance achievement with length of service here, so you get people like Clemens and Molitor and Donaldson (eight seasons between the three) mixed in with Moseby and Fernandez. Intuitively I'd flip Halladay and Stieb, and Carter's too high of course, even though I'm guessing most Jays fans think he's too low. It's a good list, allowing for pure nostalgia picks like Garcia and Griffin--the mid-'80s are over-represented in general, which is fine by me. I might be inclined to sneak Juan Guzman in there towards the bottom--I'd put him on before Martin, for sure.

Or the panel could just list him at #23...oops.

I'd switch Halliday with Alomar

I feel like Jose Cruz should have made the cut.

I can't argue with Halladay over Alomar. Alomar's ranking is very much tied in with the mystique that has attached to him over the years (ironic in view of how unmercifully he was booed here for the remainder of his career). He'd be #1 on my ballot--I was just so much more tuned in for his Jays years than I was for Halladay's--but I'm sure it's not all that close going by WAR.

Alomar: 5 seasons, 22.2 WAR (5.1/650 PA)
Halladay: 11 seasons, 41.6 WAR (5.6/162games)