aaron judge needs his own thread

Unique circumstances, obviously, but Hamilton debuted at 26 (and had his first big season at 27), so there's some relation there.

No one's mentioned him, but to me, the most cautionary parallel might be Ryan Howard. I know Howard's viewed as a joke now, but he came up at 24, got in half a season at 25--both partial seasons were strong--and at 26 he hit 58 HR with a slash line of .313/.425/.659. Even after adjustments (OPS+ = 167), it was a phenomenal year.

I'm not saying Aaron Judge is Ryan Howard, and there are lots of cautionary parallels for Bellinger, too. But that might be the downside (and Howard did get in five good years).

Last night, Aaron Judge struck out in his 36th consecutive game, breaking an ignominious single-season record previously held by pitcher Bill Stoneman in 1971. Adam Dunn fanned in 36 consecutive games between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

'unstoppable'

we're all told not to reveal how we're voting for AL rookie of the year but I will say when I write my article you can feel free to skip it

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) September 25, 2017

49, tying mcgwire

resumed being unstoppable.

.301/.438/.863 in Sept

might win him points with the Strong Finish demo

as of yesterday both Judge and McGwire had achieved an OPS+ of 164 in their rookie year. not sure how the metrics would bear out but Judge's season looks a bit more impressive right now -- they're very, very similar but AJ has scored 122 runs to McGwire's 97, and walked 119 times to McGwire's 71. I guess there's also the 1987 thing to take into account, but of course 2017 seems like a 1987 type season so idk.

isn't OPS+ relative to the league/year?

yeah

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKl7vNtW4AAI8Iu.jpg:small

awesome, hope he goes on to make a billion dollars

Heard this morning he's the sixth 50-HR/120-BB guy (arbitrary cut-offs, I know)...Bonds, Ruth, Foxx for sure; my other two guesses would be McGwire and Thome.

Wasn't sure about the last spot, but that's it; Thome had a 52-122 season, Sosa 64-116. McGwire was walking more than I'd remembered--162 the year he hit 70.

not ted williams?

huh, forgot he only hit 40 homers in a season once

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/aaron-judge-was-amazing-aaron-judge-was-a-bum-now-hes-amazing-again/

On that list of greatest rookie seasons, I've never even heard of Benny Kauff (#5).

Corey: Now that we seen the best and worst of Judge in a 13 month span (twice), any expectations for what his baseline will be?
12:30
Dave Cameron: Stanton with more walks.
12:30
Dave Cameron: A top-3 MLB hitter, basically.
12:30
Troutmaggedon: If you were building a team would you rather have Bellinger or Judge going forward?
12:31
Dave Cameron: Judge

Co-sign. Of all the athletes I’ve ever interviewed or featured, Judge is in the top echelon as far as being a quality human being https://t.co/HmyLhLF53F

— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) October 19, 2017

when writers badmouth players i always take it with a grain of salt -- could be nothing more than 'he wasn't talkative/didn't give me the quotes i needed to make my story good' -- but when they're praising you as a person you might be doing something right

Michael Baumann on today's Ringer podcast (in the middle of a beautiful 10-minute anti-"plucky"-Yankees rant): Judge is "as bland and boring as Derek Jeter."

cartilage cleanup!

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/aaron-judge-shoulder-surgery-monday-yankees-announce-article-1.3648991

Judge winning out in the unofficial competition against Bellinger once again.

His BABIP is again freakishly high at .363 (.357 last year). He's .353 for his career now, which would put him tied for 7th on this (five-year-old) career list if he had enough AB, with four of the guys ahead of him only there because of their historic batting averages:

http://waswatching.com/2013/06/24/highest-career-babip-min-3000-pa/

Can he keep this up? I don't know--I expected him to come back to earth this year, and thus far he hasn't.

it's not that high given his skillset...he hits the ball really hard, runs well, and doesn't pop it up a lot. he's going to run high BABIPs

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza,

i appreciate bold claims like this, i really do! and after last year, it was at least a plausible viewpoint, especially considering bellinger's relative youth.

but i must ask you now - would you still rather have cody bellinger?

Is Judge even going to come back this season?

maybe after Labor Day, sounds like

tbh i kinda forgot he was even injured, but i guess he's supposed to back in a couple of weeks. no surgery.

xpost

Karl--I honestly didn't view preferring Bellinger at that point to be very bold; it was completely in line with a lot of research (by James, whose credibility I realize is pretty shaky on this board) as to the future prospects of a 21-year-old vs. a 25-year-old. That's a four-year window; that's quite a jump. Add to that all of Judge's strikeouts and park factors, and it looked like an obvious pick to me. Bellinger also had a pretty historic season last year.

Right now, it obviously looks bad; it'd be an easy time to second-guess. I'm still willing to give it a couple years...that's the whole idea of the window, I think, that Bellinger is young enough that he may not yet be close to where he ends up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnJuBgmWwAERpN0.jpg:small

Bellinger's having a okay year:

.261/.344/.471 (.267/.352/.581 last year)
120 OPS+ (143)
3.6 WAR (4.2)
2B, BB, K the same (in 40 extra AB)

Basically the same season...with the one big difference very significant: 15 fewer home runs. If this is were he levels off, he's nothing special. But he's still only 22, so he's got time.

(Previous discussion will explain why I'm posting this here.)

"where he levels off"

And not helped by his park:

.245/.331/.484 at home for his career, .281/.364/.562 on the road.

Aaron Judge returns to the #Yankees lineup: pic.twitter.com/IDENp1GwYs

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) September 18, 2018

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 2:24 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

¯\(°_o)/¯

Bellinger and Judge are pretty close now for their careers--Judge still has a slight edge (which might surprise, but his advantage after two seasons was huge):

B: .278/.368/.562, 108 HR, 145 OPS+, 16.7 WAR
J: .273/.394/.552, 103 HR, 150 OPS+, 17.4 WAR

I doubt Bellinger will continue at anywhere near the level of this year (which is mostly attributable to his phenomenal start), but the four years he has on Judge may really start to show up in the next few seasons.

bellinger's second half (.940 OPS) is still better than judge's season (.886), and that's despite bellinger's second-half BABIP dropping to an unreasonable .252

idk how sustainable this is on bellinger's part, but his K rate this season is 16.4% while judge's is 31%, and he's still generating more power. that's remarkable

Was at Dodger stadium a few days ago, sitting in the clouds, and it was remarkable to see where Bellinger stands in the box, as far back as possible which is normal but as close to the plate as he could get. With his standing stance he only occupied about maybe 1/8 of the box in total

One thing that has fluctuated with Bellinger (someone pointed this out on a game I was listening to) are his platoon splits. First year, even; second year, left-handers killed him; 2019, he's hitting right-handers a little better, but not a big difference. It would seem that the middle year was the anomaly.

Two seasons shortened by injury plus two COVID seasons, this one not nearly finished, but has Judge ever been consistent since his big rookie season:

2018: .278/.392/.528
2019: .272/.381/.540
2020: .257/.336/.554
2021: .272/.385/.568

Being healthy is a skill

I was working hard to keep all my told-you-so's in check during Bellinger's MVP year, but I'm starting to have doubts again as to whose long-term prospects are better.

Big judge

Slash line killah

https://i.imgur.com/S9nWvhH.png

what am i looking at here

should i be 'reading between the lines' Zach?

nothing shocking, just a chart showing wOBA for bellinger (blue line) and judge (black line). the green line is the MLB average. bellinger's really fallen off this year, and wasn't great last year!

why these two? i have no idea why i still think about this, but bellinger and judge are always connected in my mind due to a bold prediction clemenza made a few years ago but how who would be better. i cannot think about either one without immediately thinking about the other now, lol

did clemenza say bellinger was going to be better?

this dude is ridiculous. unlike Bellinger over in the NL, he seems unstoppable.

― nomar, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:52 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Would much rather have Bellinger.

― clemenza, Wednesday, July 5, 2017 11:59 PM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

what's the case for bellinger over judge?

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:08 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

the same solid and unassailable case that was made for Dave Justice over Frank Thomas.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:15 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Bellinger is 21 and Judge is 25, so he's got 2-3 seasons left til his peak would hit. Bellinger has more time but I'm not 100% convinced on him being at this level all the time going forward.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:16 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:17 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:18 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:19 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:20 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:21 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

― nomar, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:23 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:27 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

― Karl Malone, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:31 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

(that year was not any indication, though)

i'll take judge for the next 5 and bellinger for the next 10

― k3vin k., Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:02 AM (four years ago) bookmarkflaglink

still feel good about this